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DAILY-AMBUSH · June 7, 2022

The Dongers Club – June 7th

Happy Art Vandelay day again as Jason Alexander will pitch for Milwaukee vs the Phillies — who all seem to rake in Miller Park for what it’s worth.

Today’s theme is that we have a bunch of notable players vs former teams today on the hitting side.

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WEATHER

All games should wind up playing tonight but the Tigers/Pirates game has potential for thunderstorms in it.

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This is definitely a quality pitching night compared to the disaster we had last night.

KYLE WRIGHT

There are still a few too many walks in Kyle Wright’s game for me to put him into the Ace tier but the Oakland lineup isn’t going to suddenly start walking a ton and after Tony Kemp and Jed Lowrie everyone here has a 20% or higher DCPA strikeout match-up vs KW who has only given up 3 HR on the season as well.

RANGER SUAREZ

Milwaukee is expected to have Hunter Renfroe and Willy Adames back in the line-up tonight which greatly helps their chances against Suarez.  The problem for the Brewers is that those are literally the only two guys outside of maybe Andrew McCutchen lucking into a lead off homer that have a shot off Suarez.  Milwaukee is a LH heavy lineup and Suarez is lock down vs lefties.

ALEK MANOAH

or Justin Verlander vs Seattle…

Both Manoah and Verlander are trending in the right direction for a massive game.  Manoah almost had it last game before giving up late damage to the White Sox as he was going for the CGSO.  Tonight vs the Royals he has almost no trouble hitters in the lineup from the left side that he has to worry about.

While the Royals might overall be a low K% team, they do tend to strike out when facing pitchers that have high end arsenal stuff and Manoah’s fastball ranks up there in terms of movement.

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Pitching Nuggets

Jameison Taillon … continues to pitch well for the Yankees and what is interesting about him is historically when he rates well on the Model he does poor and when he rates in the middle he does well.  He rates in the middle tonight but is also now up to $9,500 on DK.  No sense using that much on a low K guy like him.

Tarik Skubal … Might seem like the “how can this guy fail” option but lots of good Pirates ratings today and Tigers/Pirates is always an over if you ask me.

Reid Detmers (Expected)… Is a very low owned option today who I think is going to benefit from the law of averages which is the Angels finally winning a game.  He’s been more consistent at home.

Both Taijuan Walker and Yu Darvish will be just okay.  Darvish is who I would trust to get 18-20 fantasy points today on DK.

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Often times we call slates like last night a crapshoot slate but in reality craps is a game about placing your bets across various spots and giving yourself exposure to the probabilities.  Tonight is that kind of night where I want to have 3-5 lineups that are exposed to a few different teams.  It’s a good hitting night form a match-ups perspective.

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CUBS

Horner, Happ, Contreras, Morel, Wisdom

The humidity in Baltimore is back boys and girls!  Welcome to the team you are laughing about hitting 3 homers before 8pm EST tonight as the Cubs will have no problem with the MountBaltimore wall getting strong games from Ian Happ and Willson Contreras.

ASTROS

Alvarez, Altuve, Brantley

The Houston Astros will jump all over Flexen who they are seeing for the third time this season.  Love Yordan Alvarez.

YANKEES

Stanton, LeMahieu, Donaldson

I wouldn’t pay these extreme prices for the Yankees on DraftKings but this is a FanDuel give me 3-4 HR stack today.  These guys should hit well in Target Field and Giancarlo Stanton despite being very cold is a must own on if you stack the Yankees.  Don’t mistake that.

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CONTRARIAN STACKS OF THE NIGHT

WHITE SOX

Vaughn, Robert, Abreu

They screwed up with no Grandal in the lineup tonight, but I can still see the White Sox touching up Mitchy Walter White.

PHILLIES

Schwarber, Hoskins, Harper, Gregorious

Multiple Phillies seem to love going to Milwaukee to hit.  Schwarber, Hoskins, Harper, Castellanos and unfortunately he is hurt but Odubel Herrera too.  George Castanza will be on the hill for the Brewers, or “Art Vandelay” as we call him.  He cannot miss many bats and throws a flat sinker which lefties have hit for .474 xSLG this season.  Congrats to Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper.

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Today’s BOOST+ players:

KeBryan Hayes, Ronald Acuna, Ian Happ, Willson Contreras, Alejandro Kirk, Christopher Morel

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CATCHER

  1. Jason Castro
  2. Willson Contreras
  3. Gary Sanchez

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FIRST BASE

  1. Freddie Freeman
  2. Jose Abreu
  3. Frank Schwindel
  4. Rhys Hoskins

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SECOND BASE

  1. Jose Altuve … He has a DCPA of 100 tonight, which does not suck but I lean him more in a full Astros stack over finding some value here at 2B.
  2. Christopher Morel
  3. Diego Castillo

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THIRD BASE

  1. Nolan Arenado … The Cardinals go into COSTCO’s Tampa Warehouse and we suddenly ignore them just because Vegas posts a low 7.5 total?  Tropicana Field might be a dump but Arenado and Goldy aren’t suddenly going to forget how to hit against LHP and this price on NolanGoat is fantastic.  He has a .692 xSLG and 5% strike out rate off Springs pitch types.  For those of you who love Prize Picks, bet the overs on Nolan tonight.
  2. Matt Chapman
  3. KeBryan Hayes

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SHORTSTOP

*clears throat*

[drum stick tap]

[drum stick tap]

*clears throat*

da-na-da-na-da-na-da-na—daaa-daaa

da-na-da-na-da-na-da-na—daaa-daaa

da-na-da-na-da-na-da-na—daaa-daaa

da da, da… daa, daaa

da da, da… da, da

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Mucho gusto me Illamo Stephen

I’m Nico Hornier than Ron Jeremy

And if you wanna get a homer in your GPP

Just wipe that SS off your dummy lineup

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OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore

OF is the deepest spot tonight.  Lots of studs look great

  1. Shohei Ohtani … While the Angels look to me by top contrarian stack it’s not Trout who I think carries them.  If you want to place a bet tonight which is equivalent to winning a donkey GPP then place it on Ohtani to hit 2 HR.
  2. Yordan Alvarez
  3. Kyle Schwarber
  4. Luis Robert

OUTFIELD – Tier 2

  1. Joc Pederson
  2. Giancarlo Stanton
  3. Bryce Harper
  4. Randy Arozarena

OUTFIELD – Value

  1. Ian Happ
  2. Bradley Zimmer
  3. Andrew Vaughn
  4. Anthony Santander

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The Dongers Club

  1. Nolan Arenado – 3B – Cardinals – Chairman of The Dongers Club
  2. Shohei Ohtani – OF – Angels
  3. Kyle Schwarber – OF – Phillies
  4. Luis Robert – OF – White Sox
  5. Jason Castro – C – Astros
  6. Nico Horner than Ron Jeremy – SS – Cubs
  7. Freddie Freeman – 1B – Dodgers
  8. Jeff McNeil – 2B – Mets
  9. BONUS ……………… Ian Happ – OF – Cubs

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CORE BUILD(s)

The Chicago Cubs offer the best value to fit in other pieces.  I find tonight to be a nice 3-3 type main stack tonight where you anchor two teams to each lineup and build around that.  Getting away with two value pitchers feels like a long shot proposition today as well, so don’t do that on DK.

SP Combinations

Wright / Suarez

Manoah / Suarez

CORE HITTERS

3B – Arenado

SS – Hoerner

OF – Schwarber

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OWNERSHIP THOUGHTS

Pitching ownership is everything tonight and there should be a spread among the top end guys with Rodon, Verlander, Skubal being three that I did not rank as high as their ownership will drive them to be today.  But Wright, Manoah are right behind them with Ranger Suarez being overlooked big time.

Low Owned Stacks: White Sox, Angels, Phillies, Cardinals

High Owned Fades:  Braves, Red Sox, Blue Jays

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BETTING PLAYS

Blue Jays ML+ Astros ML Parlay

Angels ML

Phillies ML

Padres ML

Cardinals / Rays OVER 7.5

Rockies / Giants OVER 8

Every Nolan Arenado Over Prop

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