Grab your coffee and finish making your Bacon and Eggs, it’s time for the Sunday Edition of The Dongers Club. I am writing up today’s article while listening to Free Bird, so take that for whatever it’s worth.
Either we’re hitting the full nuts today with an EPIC Dongers Club where everyone in the Dongers Club section homers or we are like Jenny in Forrest Gump …
Today’s Sunday slate has a curve ball in it, we don’t have Coors Field to worry about but there is a juicy 4:05 PM game on the Tilt Slate between the Braves and Mets. The great part here is that it features Spencer Strider against Jacob deGrom, so don’t take too long of an afternoon nap because that one is must see.
Two games begin at 1:35 PM, one at 1:40 and then the rest are all at 2:10/2:15/2:20 PM EST.
White Sox at Rangers: This is only on FanDuel today, which is great news for everyone on DraftKings because you won’t be tempted to play the White Sox, but also bad news for everyone on DraftKings, because you won’t be able to play the White Sox against Spencer Howard The Suck. He’s back.
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WEATHER
We have some high Dew Point ratings today, so the ball might have a little extra carry on it in Baltimore, Detroit, Philadelphia, Kansas City & St. Louis although KC/STL have always been the top Dew Point stadiums all season long and it hasn’t boosted them too much but each are higher than normal. That said, Philly/Balt/Det are the ones with the highest DP increase today but Detroit has a cross wind which doesn’t help hitters much.
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Spots to monitor include …
Marlins at Cubs – Could see rain showers, but I expect them to get the game in. It’s low 80’s with the wind blowing out but not excessively and these teams suck.
Reds at Brewers – Likely will see the roof get closed in Milwaukee, which could help the hitters slightly but not much reason to over think this.
Nationals at Phillies – Wind 12MPH out.
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Today’s random fun fact on the pitchers is as follows.
Nationals SP Cory Abbott (no relation to one handed Jim) made his major league debut in June of 2021 and in that game he got his first strikeout. That strikeout? Kevin Gausman, who is also pitching today. So those two are forever linked and you will never get the 12 seconds it took you to read this back, but on the bright side I did just keep you from doing something stupid by reading this and so you can thank me now for that knowledge.
Of course, I am left to wonder if Abbott actually asked to keep that ball as his first MLB strikeout? How’s that story going to go one day when the grand kids come in and say, wow, you pitched in the big leagues? That’s right kiddo, and that there was my first strikeout! Then the kids google and realize the guy was a pitcher…. Probably should just lie and say it was Matt Adams.
On to today’s pitching…
CORBIN BURNES
For a premiere pitcher today we decide between Burnes, Nola and Gausman.
Milwaukee is a team who has cost me plenty of coin this week in bets, and although I may avoid betting them at -271 straight up, I’ll mix them into a parlay behind Burnes and the Reds opposing lineup.
Two of his last three starts have been under 20 DK fantasy points as a couple lefty heavy teams in the Rockies and Pirates made him work extra hard. The Reds are not a lefty heavy team and outside of Votto they don’t walk at all. This should be a cruise control game for Burnes.
ADRIAN SAMPSON
After Burnes it gets very dicey. Gausman is a no for me and Nola is just okay but really makes DK lineups hard to do on today’s slate unless you go full value lineup.
Sampson’s not great but not a trainwreck like his opponent the Marlins. He’s coming off an outing when he threw only 72 pitches @ San Francisco, so his arm should be more than fine to give us 100 pitches and 6 innings today. RHB hit just .232 and strikeout 22% time vs him, which is the majority of what the Marlins will roll out.
DREW RASMUSSEN
Strength vs weakness here as Rasmussen’s strength lies in his slider and the Tigers weakness is hitting sliders. This game has lots of risk with these arms but your Sunday Sleeper is on the other side in Matt Manning, so I will take the under 8 and on a main lineup roll with Rasmussen for the K upside and on your contrarian second lineup use Matt Manning who could still have a short leash after 5 innings but has good arm talent to confuse the Rays.
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Sunday Sleeper
Matt Manning – Tigers
See above.
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O-R-I-O-L-E-Sundays
Mullins, Rutschman (DK), Santander, Odor, Vavra
I got to see the Orioles up close and personal yesterday and I must admit the the wall in left field didn’t bother me as much as I thought it would. Cedric Mullins was out in front of two would be home run balls in his first two AB yesterday pulling them foul and then striking out both times. He won’t make the same mistake vs Bryse Wilson today and the bottom of this order is getting good PA right now so turning the lineup over will help out the stack. Specifically Terrin Vavra who is in that new guy tree right now and a perfect value play at 2k.
PHILLIES
Schwarber, Hall, Bohm, Stott
Phils are a streaky team and the Nationals have shown zero ability to shut them down. Schwarber and Realmuto will cost you on DK but Bohm/Hall are the key to this team going off today.
Boston vs Kansas City
Signs of life from the Royals as the young kids are hitting bombs. They’ll still strike out more than KC did early int he season but Pratto & Dozier are both decent value plays today around cornerstone Bobby Witt Jr.
Boston is centered around Devers, he’s expensive, but he should smash Keller. Durran leading off at 3k is fine too.
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FD Only Stack
Chicago White Out’s: Eloy, Vaughn, Abreu
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CATCHER
- Willson Contreras … Now that the trade deadline is in the rear view mirror we are going to see Contreras locked in as he plays for that new contract without any pressure on him. He should be the same price as the white hot JT Realmuto but is $900 cheaper and in a good split spot. That said, if you find yourself thin on salary, his teammate Yan Gomes could be in the lineup today and is a good cheap pivot.
- Adley Rutschman
- MJ Melendez
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FIRST BASE
- Rowdy Tellez … Excuse me DraftKings?? Tellez’ salary was 4k back on 7/25 and in this series alone has jumped from 5.1 to 5.2 and now 5.8 today. The Brewers are pissing me off because they continue to use platoon bullshit with Mike Brosseau but in a critical situation yesterday refused to bring in Tellez for Renfroe (forget the defense, they can figure that shit out after). So for 5800 you got major risk here if they decide to bring in a LHP in the late innings and Craig Counsell does his best Kevin Cash impression. So, the chances of Tellez hitting a third homer are low, but two doesn’t suck, does it?
- Jose Abreu (FD Only)
- Darick Hall
- Ryan Mountcastle … In a big slump but a value play within an Orioles stack
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SECOND BASE
- Kolten Wong
- Bryson Stott
- Nolan Gorman
- Rougned Odor
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THIRD BASE
- Rafael Devers
- Yoan Moncada (FD)
- Alec Bohm
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SHORTSTOP
- Oneil Cruz … He is ridiculous, but I can tell you right now he is going to be reverse Altuve. Small pitchers will handle him . The low pitch does give him a little bit of trouble as he chases junk low, but if you leave the ball up at all or let him get extension he’s going to destroy it. He should destroy Watkins.
- Bobby Witt Jr
- Beaux Bichette
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OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Cedric Mullins
- Kyle Schwarber … Schwarbs vs Nationals is like Judge vs Orioles
- Eloy Jimenez (FD)
- Seiya Suzuki
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OUTFIELD – Second Tier
- Whit Merrifield – Massive boost if he finally leads off for the Jays.
- Bryan Reynolds
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Anthony Santander
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OUTFIELD – Value
- Terrin Vavra … The Orioles moved him up to 3. Expect chalk, take it.
- Jarren Duran
- Hunter Dozier
- Michael A. Taylor
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- Cedric Mullins – OF – Orioles – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Rowdy Tellez – 1B – Brewers
- Rafael Devers – 3B – Red Sox
- Oneil Cruz – SS – Pirates
- Eloy Jimenez – OF – White Sox
- Seiya Suzuki – OF – Cubs
- Willson Contreras – C – Cubs
- Nolan Gorman – 2B – Cardinals
- BONUS ……………….. Alec Bohm – 3B – Phillies
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CORE PLAYS
With Vavra, Stott and Value at 1B or 3B you can fit Burnes and Nola together on dk
Cedric Mullins
Eloy Jimenez (FD) / Terrin Vavra (DK)
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BETTING PLAYS
Today’s winners to parlay however you like
Orioles
Phillies
Brewers
Blue Jays
Rays
Cardinals
Wh… nevermind
Favorite Plays:
Pirates/Orioles OVER 9
Rays/Tigers UNDER 8.5
Cubs/Jays/Brewers/Orioles ML Parlay