Welcome back College Football!
Today’s slate of games on DraftKings is all about cupcake match-ups as there are only two games with spreads that are below 19.5 points and for good reason
- Penn State (-3.5) vs Purdue
- West Virginia at Pittsburgh (-7.5)
Among the other games which are high spreads that have the highest totals we have
- VMI at Wake Forest (-32) … Over/Under 67.5
- Ball State at Tennessee (-35.5) … Over/Under 68.5
- Lousiana Tech at Mizzou (-19.5) … Over/Under 60.5
The rest of the slate includes
- South Carolina State at UCF
- Central Michigan at Oklahoma State
- Eastern Illinois at Northern Illinois
- New Mexico State at Minnesota
- Northern Arizona at Arizona State
- Cal-Poly at Fresno State
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There’s not that one typical back and forth game that we should be looking at here today, so it’s more focused on specific teams and this is the type of slate you want to find the optimal plays around a CORE team stack.
Ball State vs Tennessee
I am big on the Volunteers this season and so long as Hendon Hooker doesn’t get the hook for Joe Milton III in game he should be a staple every week in our analysis whenever they are playing. This is a team who returns a good amount of players on offense and should play in a ton of higher scoring games.
Starting things off with a MAC opponent who graduated a good amount of known players is going to be a scenario where they should be able to thrive and put up a 40+ spot.
Tennessee Volunteers
- QB – Hendon Hookier (8.900)
- RB – Jabari Small (7500)
- WR – Jalin Hyatt (5500) … I prefer the 3k savings with Hyatt over Tillman. We’ll use Tillman in due time.
Ball State – “Run it Back” Game Stack
- QB – John Paddock (5600)
- WR – YoHeinz Tyler (4900)
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Penn State vs Purdue
Call me a sucker, I don’t care. If this game was being played at 3pm in early October we would just snooze right through it probably but because it’s a prime time game to start the season off for the B10 it feels like it has a ton of juice in it.
Now’s the part where I have to convince myself, and you, that the juice involves Sean Clifford and Aidan O’Connell lighting things up?
Well, they’re both at a discount due to facing defenses which were good against he pass in 2021 but I like doing a little combo stack on both sides.
- PSU – Sean Clifford (6500) & Parker Washington (6500)
- PUR – Aidan O’Connell (6100) & Broc Thompson (4900)
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The theme this week is QB-RB-WR, roll the dice on which guy from a certain team dominates in some blowout spots and with lots of value out there you can justify multiple plays from the same team — meaning we have Team Stack week options once again. Here are the ‘Team’ (not game) stacks to look at
Fresno St: Haener, Mims, Cropper
Nothern Illinois: Lombardi, Brown, Tucker
UCF: Plumlee, Bowser, Baker
ASU: Jones, Valladay, Badger
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Hendon Hooker – Tennessee – $8900
This is my team this year. In 2019 it was the LSU offense, then in 2020 it was the Florida offense and now coming into this season I am riding Tennessee as long as we can. Hooker will run and throw every week and when he has a pass defense that gives up easy coverage he’ll benefit from a good WR group taking it to the house a few times. Ball State should stay in the game as well with the Vols bad defense and so Hooker will put up 3+ quarters of work.
Sean Clifford – Penn State – $6500
Clifford was NOT great last season whenever he was chalk, but I like this game out of the gates and think that him coming in to start the season healthy is a great spot to buy low on the big Blue Dog from Penn State here.
Rocky Lombardi – Nothern Illinois – $8100
Riddle me this Batman. If NIU was on a mid week MAC slate we would love to play Lombardi with his rushing ability. I love the toughness this kid provides and trust him against MAC opponents. So why would I even consider playing other NIU guys against a terrible Eastern Illinois team which isn’t as good as the MAC opponents?
The highest owned player on this slate is going to be NIU RB Antario Brown for $5100, but Lombardi can squash him if he keeps it at the goal line.
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Likely Chalky QB I wont be using: John Rhys Plumlee, Spencer Sanders
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This will be the most interesting and important position to decide this slate. We have some big name backs who are worthy of going through but all of them have enough to make you wonder if they have huge games.
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THE ONE TWO PUNCH
This was a really tough RB slate to rank who are the top plays I would consider for ‘Core’ builds and one thing I spent a lot of time deciding upon was who do I like more among the two home west coast heavy favorites (Mims, Fresno/Valladay, ASU).
Then it dawned on me. Play them both you dummy!
Jordan Mims – Fresno State – $7900
I trust Fresno State to put up a 50+ spot today so we can take a shot on multiple guys having production. One way or another, you need a Bulldog in your lineup today and why not take the lead RB at home.
Xazavian Valladay – Arizona State – $6200
Tough call beetween Mims and Valladay as to which is the better pick and I just didn’t want to say go Valladay beacuse he is 1700 cheaper. Valladay, a former Wyoming stud, transferred into ASU and should have a solid game here as well.
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TOP FLEX OPTIONS
Mo Ibrahim – Minnesota – $9,500
Ibrahim is one of the best RB in all of college football but he is coming off a lost season due to a torn achillies injury. He gets New Mexco State who allowed 5.43 YPC in 2021 and the Gophers should once again be a good rushing team.
How much he gets run today is enough of a question that I wouldn’t say he is a must at 9.5 but there’s a good amount of value on this slate so we can take the sure thing with Ibrahim and feel confident.
Lew Nichols III – CMU – $7,000
CMU lost some weapons at WR and quite honestly if I were coaching them I would look around and see the guys and be like yeah, we’re gonna keep giving the ball to Nichols over and over and over again. I do not believe Oklahoma State is going to come out and blow the doors off CMU, so the pace of the game should wind up resulting in Nichols still getting 20+ touches and letting his talent take over from there.
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Just missed my top tier cut, but like as S-FLEX plays
Carson Steele – Ball State – $5,500
Jabari Small – Tennessee – $7,500
Justice Ellison ($7,700) / Christian Turner ($6,800) – Wake Forest
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Broc Thompson – Purdue – $4,900
We can simply just look back to the Bowl season a year ago to find out how teams view their rosters going into this season and in the wild Music City Bowl the Boilermakers went through Broc Thompson who had a huge 7-217-2 stat line with David Bell gone.
Thompson should be their big play WR again this season and for this price we lock him in — even though yes Penn State’s DEF is much better than that Vols defense was, but I like this game a good amount.
Be sure to run him back with Parker Washington in game stacks.
Smoke Harris – LT – $5500
Potential upset alert as Lousiana Tech getting 21 points against Missouri could be our steal of the night. If they’re going to potentially even have the lead then it’s going to come from Smoke Harris and a talented WR group tearing up a fraud Missouri team.
Jalin Hyatt – Tennessee – $5,500
The Vols are going to need Hyatt to have a big season this year with Velus Jones gone and primarily playing out of the slot he’ll likely be able to get open easily as Ball State has to focus on Tillman quite a bit. Look for Hyatt to easily pay off his 5.5k price tag in this likely shootout game.
YoHeinz Tyler – Ball State – $4,900 & Jayshon Jackson – Ball State – $4,600
Tyler and his teammate Jayshon Jackson are also sub 5k and they face that aforementioned Volunteers defense. I prefer Tyler who has more size and I think scores a touchdown while Jackson likely has more targets and a few more receptions. Ball State is going to likely run a high volume of plays in this game, so there’s a demand for exposure to the ground game or WR this week.
Parker Washington – Penn State – $6500
It’s Washington, KeAndre Lambert-Smith and newcomber Mitchell Tinsley here for the Lions but I trust the man who was emerging last season and has prior history with Sean Clifford to be the core play from PSU today.
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Pay Up WR
Not every article has to be the same thing because not every slate is the same thing. With the depth at value today that I see there’s an easy path to then just identifying the one stud WR you want to roll with.
Three guys stand out at the top and they are …
Cedric Tillman – Tenn – $8500, Jalen Cropper – Fresno – $8300 and AT Perry – Wake – $8000
The answer among which you would use if you aren’t paying at Quarterback today is:
Jalen Cropper – Fresno State – $8300
We have a pivot off Tillman in Jalin Hyatt and while AT Perry should have a monster season I am not rushing to Wake in game one without Sam Hartman.
Cropper meanwhile returns as a near 25% target share for an offense which gets the not so stout FCS Cal Poly defense which gave up 67.5% completion percentage against much less talented competition.
This one will be a blowout, but it can be a blowout with the 8k+ receiver having a 25 point game.
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Two more names to keep an eye on
Jared Wayne – Pittsburgh – $5100
A new QB is in town and Addison is gone so look for Wayne to likely be way more than his $5100 price tag as the season moves on. The two things I like here are that WVU has always been a sneaky target with WR beacuse they don’t cover extremely well and generally limit yards by holding onto the ball themselves. The other is Pitt has a very good offensive line so I think when they have the ball they will be able to move it and give Slovis time to throw a couple tuddies.
Javon Baker – UCF – $3500
I really wish this game wasn’t even on the slate. Who the hell attends South Carolina State? They have a football program? I personally think UCF will just gash them on the ground but we have a dirt cheap WR who is going to get plenty of work against an easy draw.
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RANKING THE POSITION DEPTH
This is to help you identify what you are putting into your S-FLEX and FLEX positions.
- Wide Receiver
- Running Back
- Quarterback – Only would force in two QB when stacking this week.
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VALUE POSITION
Wide Receiver
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LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
My initial feeling tonight is to look at lots of mid range WR who should get 15-20 points and you do not need 2 QB.
I love doing the WR pairing from both sides of a game tonight. PSU/Purdue and Ball State/Tenn…
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BETS
Penn State / Purdue OVER 53.5
Ball State / Tennessee OVER 66.5
WVU +7
Louisiana Tech +21
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CORE BUILD
QB Hendon Hooker
RB Xavian Valladay
WR Smoke Harris
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