Our first real MAIN Saturday slate is here. Week 1 is officially getting kicked off as the routine for the next couple months of sweating is your guy playing and do you have the guy going off for 3 touchdowns begins.
INJURY NEWS UPDATE – 11 AM
- Josh Downs officially OUT for UNC Today, this makes Omarion Hampton (3,000 on DK) a near must own for UNC today. If Downs was playing I would have been okay fading here, but not now.
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None of these games are what we would consider ‘great’ spots tonight and there’s only one I would consider stacking up. Outside of that it’s just an ‘optimal’ build kind of slate.
Houston vs UTSA
Meep-Meep. Yep, that’s the Road Runners mascot but both sides should be airing it out behind Clayton Tune (Hou) and Frank Harris (UTSA). Two guys who know how to move the ball through the air and with the better defense being the road team I trust this one to go off.
- QB Stack: Clayton Tune & Frank Harris
- Houston: Nathaniel Dell
- UTSA: Joshua Cephus
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North Carolina vs Appalachian State
UNC has a game under their belt and it was a horrific defensive showing. Basically any time we have them on a slate we’ll be looking at them and Appalachian State’s Quarterback is someone very familiar with UNC in Chase Brice (Duke transfer).
Unfortunately App St has a ton of guys who could touch the ball out of the backfield, but we should once again like to attack the UNC rushing defense.
- QB Stack: Chase Brice (App St) & Drake Maye (UNC)
- RB: Camerun Peoples (App St)
- WR: Josh Downs (UNC) – He should be in, but verify he left early last week with an injury.
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Buffalo vs Maryland
I don’t think this one is going to be an insane shootout as you might expect with a 65 total and Maryland being such a known DFS favorite. But as much as I rode Baby Tua last season I have to go right back to him now this year to kick things off. If the Terps can give him time he should be able to get the ball to Jarrett for big plays and while Demus is great, the Buffalo secondary is not horrible here either so I want the big play ability over volume.
The BIG question mark in this game where it could go off is the unknown value at RB for Buffalo. They have three guys at RB who could potentially break off plays here with Ron Cook Jr and Al-jay Henderson being the ones that I would take gambles on.
- RB: Ron Cook Jr (BUFF) / Al-Jay Henderson (BUFF),
- RB: Roman Hemby (MD) – Should get a few check downs.
- WR: Rakim Jarrett (MD)
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MY GUYS
FRANK HARRIS – UTSA – $7300
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I can make an easy case for both Frank Harris and Clayton Tune in this same game. Both sides have stout WR but it is Harris who has the depth at WR, and also the home field advantage to give me some confidence in him. Your exposure can be through both or a WR with one but Harris is a better running QB as well so that upside puts him over the top as 1a.
CLAYTON TUNE – HOUSTON – $7800
This was a tough call but I slid Tune in above Baby Tua and just went all in on this specific game. It’s an $800 difference between the two and Tune will be facing what I feel is an easier pass defense and one that funnels everything through the air more consistently. Plus the game flow should be better.
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SLEEPER
KJ JEFFERSON – Arkansas – $7400
You want a favorite who is a sleeper pick today? Back the Razorbacks vs Cincinnati who is having to play their first game after finally making the Playoff last year and then losing both Desmond Ridder and Alec Pierce among others.
Now Cincinnati is going down to face Arkansas and a dangerous rushing QB in KJ Jefferson. He’s a nice pivot off chalky Jaren Hall who is $7200 and not a terrible play but someone I think can be avoided.
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Also don’t mind …
Chase Brice (App State)
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Chalky plays I won’t have
Jaren Hall, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Dillon Gabriel
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MY GUYS
ZACH CHARBONNET – UCLA – $7900
Averaged 5.6 YPC on nearly 17 touches per game a season ago. UCLA should be a good rushing team again this season and I don’t see them needing to have Dorian Thompson Robinson go bananas rushing today.
DEVON ACHANE – Texas A&M – $7600
This is the one game we REALLY didn’t need on the slate but lets just take the guy with a 7 yard per carry average against a far weaker opponent. The reason his rating on the model is so low is just because of the limited data on Sam Houston State.
CHRIS BROOKS – BYU – $6100
USF is very weak against the run which is why Jaren Hall (QB) will be popular, but I would rather go with a cheaper Brooks here who should get enough touches and produce with them while QB is a deep position instead and we can go elsehwere there.
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SLEEPER
This is not a slate where I am loading up on Running Backs in the FLEX/S-FLEX positions and thus there isn’t a ‘Stud’ Sleeper RB that I am backing, but I do like taking a shot with a value RB today among the pool below. My favorite spot to attack is going to be rolling the dice on the Buffalo RB situation which is a three headed monster but two of the guys I think have play potential and those three are
- Ron Cook Jr (5700) … Expect him to be RB1 to start and he did have 24 catches last season
- Mike Washington (3600) … Had the best stats from a season ago, he is the safest of the three to get you a 6-8 floor.
- Al-Jay Henderson (3000) … Darkhorse pick. Best if this game gets out of hand and they let him get some work in the second half.
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OTHER VALUE OPTIONS
CAMERUN PEOPLES – App St – $4900
Only down side here is both Chase Brice and the App St. backfield being more of a committee approach.
ROMAN HEMBY – Maryland – $4000
Receptions upside here against a good Buffalo pass rush.
DONOVAN EDWARDS – Michigan – $5000
The Michigan backfield of Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. How about this schedule for the Wolverines. They open with CSU then Hawaii and then UCONN before Maryland comes in on September 24th. Good luck figuring out the Michigan game plan for the first month but I would go with Edwards at a lower price and also because he is more likely to get that “ice breaker” early touchdown.
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MY GUYS
RAKIM JARRETT – Maryland – $5900
Jarrett is explosive and does not need the volume to pay off today. I think he is a poor mans DeSean Jackson type WR who just needs one catch to smash this price. His teammate Dontay Demus isn’t too shabby either, but it just opens it up more for Jarrett and big play ability is what I would want in this game and not the volume.
NATHANIEL DELL – Houston – $7800
If using the top QB on the slate in my mind you would be stupid to not play his 30% target share #1 receiver. Just being honest here.
ZAKHARI FRANKLIN – UTSA – $7500
Alpha on the UTSA passing game, see below.
JOSHUA CEPHUS – UTSA – $5500
Cephus is one of 3 Senior WR’s that are going to have to have the big game I expect for the UTSA upset this week. I really don’t want to come out in Week 1 and be one of those touts who lists the depth chart and says “play any”, but … well, hey, I’m gonna kinda do that here. Cephus, Franklin (7500) and Clark (4700). Ride two of them with Frank Harris in a stack.
Franklin is the Alpha, Cephus is the value.
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SLEEPER
JADON HASELWOOD – Arkansas – 6400
The former Sooner is now going to step in and fill the shoes of Treylon Burks and I would prefer to pair him with KJ Jefferson on an Arkansas stack because the Bearcats defense should still be decent — but this is someone with size and talent who just got under utilized in Oklahoma that could not be in line for a pretty decent season.
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VALUE OPTIONS
Tyrin Smith – UTEP
Heavy chalk but I don’t think UTEP does a whole lot overall.
Isaiah Winstead – ECU
ECU is a sleeper team today as there is a ton of pre-season hype on NC State but this is a very dangerous Week 1 draw. I like ECU to keep it close.
Deshon Stoudemire – Troy
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RANKING THE POSITION DEPTH
WR – More studs here than RB this week
QB
RB
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LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
You’ll likely find that you need to take a sub 4k punt option today and even going down to the min price 3k is not a bad option on this slate.
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CORE BUILD
QB – Frank Harris (UTSA)
RB – Devon Achane (A&M)
WR – Rakim Jarrett (MD)
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BETS
UTSA ML
Houston/UTSA Over 62
ECU +12.5
Arkansas -6.5