Red River Rivalry Weekend brings us a loaded slate overall
BEST GAMES
- Ohio State at Michigan State
- TCU at Kansas
- Texas Tech at Oklahoma State
- Texas at Oklahoma
SNEAKY GAMES
- Tennessee at LSU
- Mizzou at Florida
- Purdue at Maryland
- Ole Miss at Vandy
- Arkansas at Mississippi State
WORST GAMES
- Utah at UCLA
- Michigan at Indiana
- Washington at Arizona State
- Auburn at Georgia
- Washington at Nebraska
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THE Ohio State Buckeyes
I love the Buckeyes to have their big time breakout performance today. Obviously Ohio State has been putting up huge numbers, but we haven’t had that CJ Stroud 300 yards by halftime with 4 TD game yet. He had 5 TD a couple weeks ago at home vs Wisconsin, but the yards should be what carries him today. There are a TON of QB on this slate, so Stroud can be overlooked on an optimal build but Marvin Harrison, Jr should not be.
What helps this stack out is Michigan State being at home and Jayden Reed being very cheap at $4900.
- QB – CJ Stroud
- WR – Marvin Harrison, Jr.
- WR – Jayden Reed (MSU)
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Texas vs Oklahoma
The last two Red River Showdowns delivered up to the high total hype after two before that were slow out of the gate. Oklahoma has been so bad lately that if they can play ANY defense against Texas this could be a slow moving game. Unfortunately, I have zero faith Oklahoma can shutdown Bijan Robinson who likely cements his legacy as a Texas RB with a dominant outing.
- RB – Bijan Robinson (Texas)
- WR – Jalil Farooq (Oklahoma)
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TCU at Kansas
Two teams who are coming in playing extremely well and a little above expectations. I would not be shocked to see this game get into the 60’s but still fail to go over the total. That said, much like Texas-Oklahoma you should have exposure here.
- QB – Max Duggan (TCU)
- WR – Quentin Johnston (TCU)
- QB – Jalon Daniels (Kansas)
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Texas Tech at Oklahoma State
My gut says that Oklahoma State controls this game easy — but the one threat to that would be Donovan Smith going off for Texas Tech – if he does then this looks like my favorite QB & QB full stack game.
- QB – Donovan Smith (TT)
- WR – Xavier White (TT)
- QB – Spencer Sanders (OKST)
- WR – Braydon Johnson (OKST)
- RB – Dom Richardson (OKST)
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Also really good spots
Tennessee at LSU: It sucks that this is a Noon game (11AM technically)
Mizzou at Florida: Florida is going to boat race them and Missouri is known more for smuggling drugs around their boats than racing in them.
C’mon, that might be my best pop culture reference ever…..
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MY GUYS
Anthony Richardson, Florida – $6,800
This is a deep QB slate and so paying up is not necessary with tons of good options who also do damage on the ground. Richardson is that guy and gets Missouri who still isn’t great against the run and has a let down after nearly upsetting Georgia last week.
Jalon Daniels, Kansas – $6,900
60%+ of the touchdhowns that TCU has yielded have come via the ground. Kansas will be in their toughest matchup of the season trying to stay undefeated and Daniels is gonna have the game fall on him. He either delivers or they lose by 20 with a big turnover game.
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Also worth using:
CJ Stroud, Ohio State – $9,200
Stroud should be in full Ohio State builds with two pass catching options. He’ll need to have that 5 TD passing game with two going to 2 different players to really pay off.
Donovan Smith, Texas Tech – $7,000
Could easily make a strong case here for Spencer Sanders in the same game or KJ Jefferson vs Mississippi State, Hendon Hooker vs LSU, etc… There’s a ton of depth at QB this week.
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MY GUYS
Bijan Robinson, Texas – $9,000
I’m buying into this being a 30 spot for Bijan. He has to hit that to pay off IMO over the heavy QB slate.
Dominic Richardson, Oklahoma State – $7,100
This is the reason why Sanders isn’t higher for me. Okie State should have a good rushing game and Richardson is our chalk home RB to consider at a good price point.
Raheim Sanders, Arkansas – $6,200
Arkansas is going on the road in a tough environment but I think the Razorbacks actually can give Mississippi St a good run today.
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Value:
- Devin Neal, Kansas – $5,400
- Antwain Littleton, Maryland – 3600
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This slate is headlined with Nathaniel Dell and in case you haven’t gotten the sense yet I am fading the Houston passing attack in a game I believe will slow down. Yes, Dell is likely to hit 15+ fantasy points, but WR is deep tonight.
MY GUYS
Marvin Harrison, Ohio State – $7,400
Lock and load just like his dad did. Oh wait, did I go there?
Quentin Johnston, TCU – $6,800
You can still get after Kansas through the air and with the threat of TCU having a good running game I think more single coverage should open up for Johnston who is big and physical and capable of winning 1 on 1 matchups all game.
Jalen McMillan, Washington – $6,200
Love high % target receivers (21%, over 8 per game) against teams who do not have low completion %’s allowed. McMillan fits that mold today. Should get you a 17 just by stepping onto the field.
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TIER TWO WR
Charlie Jones, Purdue – $7,000
Jones is probably the highest owned pay up WR today. I have him in my SFLEX spot as of now going heavy at WR, but could easily see this game turning into a Purdue running attack.
Xavier Worthy, Texas – $6,300
Jalil Farooq, Oklahoma – $5,200
Would only use both of these guys with heavy exposure on this game.
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VALUE
Xavier White, Texas Tech – $3,400
The chalk value on this slate and at this price he’s just a nice plug in and move on pick.
Jayden Reed, Michigan State – $4,900
Reed has just 1 TD compared to Keon Coleman, if Michigan State wants to stay close that needs to change today. He’s the Sparty to own.
Kayshon Boutte – LSU – $4,800
If you would have told me the poster boy would have wound up in the value section a year ago I would have laughed you out of the room. The fact is despite being the most talented WR on the team, Boutte has not been their best WR and its been a miserable last two years for Boutte. But if things are gonna turn around they will turn at home vs Tennessee. Between him and Brian Thomas (3900) there is good value in the LSU guys not named Malik Nabers.
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RANKING THE POSITION DEPTH
- QB
- WR
- RB
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CORE BUILD
QB – Anthony Richardson
RB – Bijan Robinson
WR – M. Harrison
WR – Q. Johnston
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BETS
TCU/Kansas Under 69
Tennessee -2.5
Florida -11
Oklahoma State + Washington ML Parlay
Purdue ML