Welcome to Week 4, we are almost to the BYE portion of the season and this week we have our first London Game as well, so one less game on the MAIN slate.
Sorry, that means no Andy Dalton in the Ambush this week and I know you are all super disappointed by this.
[spacer height=”12px”]
INJURY UPDATES
Honestly nothing this week which has me waiting for the late Saturday night news dump.
James Conner – Questionable, should play
Cordarelle Patterson – Questionable, should play
Entire Lions Offense – Out or questionable
[spacer height=”12px”]
WEATHER
Please welcome Mother Nature to the 2022 NFL season. Nothing that is too major here, but there is one big game which I think slows down with some steady rain and late fall like conditions.
- Bills at Ravens – This is the one with rain all day and temps barely getting to 60 degrees
- Bears at Giants – Light rain
- Jaguars at Eagles – Light rain
Possible Trap/Look ahead spots
- Colts & Broncos play next Thursday
[spacer height=”12px”]
THE AMBUSH PLAY …
Kyler Murray – Cardinals
We have been pretty solid thus far digging deep into the contrarian bin with Quarterbacks and while it is never intentional as I honestly go with my gut/favorite play we are once again on a low owned QB who I think has the game put on his shoulders this week. Or in the case of Kyler, the game is clearly going on his feet.
No, this game is not on grass. Carolina, of course installed new artificial turf a season ago and the track should be plenty quick for Kyler to do damage with his legs. With the Cardinals still struggling despite a stolen win in week two this is the spot where Kliff Kingsburry says screw it, I may be going down with my ship but I am sure as hell not going to lose to Matt fricken Rhule who is also going down with his ship. Two coaches who are likely going to be going back to the college game soon are gonna lay it all on the line this week and the Kyler/Baker Boomer Sooner Bowl is flying out of nowhere to be the must watch game at 4PM.
I ALSO LIKE …
Nobody else besides Kyler Murray should be on your ‘main’ lineup this week IMO.
Baker Mayfield – Panthers
Uhh… Well. You see. What had happened was… No B.S. here. I can’t honestly give you a ringing endorsement for Baker other than this dude is always good for that one bullshit good game and this is the one I can see it happening in.
Justin Fields – Bears
As you can sense, I am not big on paying paying for QB this week if not going with Kyler and with Montgomery out the game has to fall more on Fields shoulders (and legs).
[spacer height=”12px”]
BE CAUTIOUS WITH …
Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson
Neither is going to ‘suck’ but with their prices very high and my anticipation this game isn’t a big time shootout I think you can safely pivot off them.
[spacer height=”12px”]
THE AMBUSH PLAY …
Austin Ekeler – Chargers
After a couple of losses and with some stars banged up this is the most obvious dont fuck it up spot on the slate IMO. Get Ekeler the damn ball Chargers against a defense which is showing that they’re not gonna be able to stop the run every week.
I ALSO LIKE …
Nick Chubb – Browns
I really hope the visions of a Kareem Hunt vulture don’t come true but hard to not trust Cleveland’s ground game. Their OL should handle the Falcons DL.
Khalil Herbert – Bears
With Monty out Herbert should be in line for a good volume game. Just has to get into the box.
Javonte Williams – Broncos
Almost my who is getting overlooked this week guy. Broncos got their wins and will lose in Vegas but not without Williams having a huge game.
AJ Dillon – Packers
Dillon is known as the closer for the Packers and correlates great with their defense.
Jamaal Williams – Lions
Chalky but not my favorite chalk this week.
BE CAUTIOUS WITH …
Najee Harris – Steelers
[spacer height=”12px”]
THE AMBUSH PLAYS …
Terry McLaurin – Commanders
I am not crazy or drunk enough to sit here and tout Carson Wentz but I sure as hell love me some Terry McLaurin this week. He should shred an overrated Cowboys defense on the 8 or 9 plays when Wentz isn’t taking a million sacks. But hey, if Wentz wants to take a sack then that’s just more passing YAC for McLaurin.
Diontae Johnson – Steelers
The Jets allow completions to everyone and Johnson even in a rainy game should have plenty of chances. The 6k price is why he is chalky and we’ll just eat that chalk.
DK Metcalf – Seahawks
If Metcalf hasn’t spent the week on the phone with AJ Brown saying “yo, so how am I not gonna shred these Lions” then I guess they just aren’t friends anymore.
I ALSO LIKE …
Davante Adams – Raiders
The winless Raiders are at home vs the hated Broncos. Derek Carr is not going to leave this building without throwing the ball to Adams 28+ times for potentially 3 scores.
Gabriel Davis – Bills
Speed vs the Ravens. I wouldn’t say that Davis has all world speed but I think he has more upside than Diggs.
DJ Moore – Panthers
Very vocal this week against Baker and his coach. This game can’t shootout without the Carolina WR doing some damage and this is a case of feeding the disgruntled player.
[spacer height=”12px”]
THE DK BARGIN BIN …
Rondale Moore – Cardinals
First player in lineups this week on DraftKings should be Rondale Moore. He played in cooler weather in college and I just see him having a massive catch game with at least one 40 yard catch and run TD. $3,800 on DraftKings, take it and move on.
Michael Gallup – Cowboys
Dallas is likely going to win this game but I wouldn’t be shocked if they are in a little bit of a dog fight late. Lamb is going to get all the attention off his MNF spot but Gallup is cleared to go and could get some work in here as well. He isn’t a true bargain bin, but more of a ‘sleeper’ pick.
Khalif Raymond – Lions
It’s a toss up who we really should use but the Lions offense is going to be Raymond, Reynolds and Hockenson this week IMO. I believe Raymond should see a target % boost.
BE CAUTIOUS WITH …
Stefon Diggs – Bills
Yeah, the matchup makes a ton of sense here, but then so is the matchup for Gabriel Davis and I prefer the extra speed vs the Ravens. That said, Baltimore’s gonna get this defense right very soon. Be careful all around.
[spacer height=”12px”]
THE AMBUSH PLAYS …
TJ Hockenson – Lions
I don’t see Seattle winning much on the road this season but this could be their best shot. All that does for Hock is put him dead in square as Goff should be forced to throw against a defense he does know well and with injuries around the Lions I don’t see how Hockenson isn’t his go to guy on third down all game.
I ALSO LIKE …
Dallas Goedert – Eagles
Kyle Pitts – Falcons
Robert Tonyan – Packers
I know Packer fan Dennis Roy was a little ‘meh’ on actually writing him up but this is the only true play beyond the Packers defense that I would use in this game with confidence.
BE CAUTIOUS WITH …
Mark Andrews – Ravens
[spacer height=”10px”]
THE AMBUSH PLAYS …
Packers
They’ll win 20-3.
I ALSO LIKE …
Giants
if they were on the road I would fade, but at home vs Fields this is your ‘safer’ defense this week that won’t win you the slate but also won’t have you going WTF!@#!@#
Cowboys
Sacks, sacks and more sacks.
[spacer height=”10px”]
#1. The Big 12 Desperation Throwback Game
The Ambush: Former Big 12 coaches Matt Rhule and Kliff Kingsburry lead their former Big 12 Quarterbacks for an old fashioned Big 12 Shootout in … Charlotte!
[spacer height=”12px”]
#2. Finding The Targets
There are three guys this week who I see having MASSIVE target % games and are dead square at the top of our list this week
- Terry McLaurin
- Diontae Johnson
- T.J. Hockenson
The Ambush: McLaurin, Johnson and Hockenson will have all the targets and all go over 20 DK FPTS
[spacer height=”12px”]
#3. RB Still Sucks, thanks for coming.
Every week RB looks like it could have some pop, and every week RB just fails to match the WR production out there. We have the same scenario playing out this week and while I think some guyhs like Taylor, CMC, Barkley and Henry get going more I am not yet ready to go back and force them in after doing such the last two weeks.
So give me Chubb vs the Falcons off extra rest and someone who is just lurking for a big game in Austin Ekeler as my 1-2 punch at RB. Kareem Hunt as a cheaper pivot off Chubb is fine on DK as well.
The Ambush: You can spend on RB, but dont jam in the high guys blindly until they do it consistently.
[spacer height=”12px”]
#4. Take ease and eat the Cheese
Determining which defense you want to use in DFS can be nerve racking at times. You see defenses which could be good but are expensive and then you see those chalk defenses that are free which everyone punts and somehow luck boxes into a defensive touchdown.
Well this week we have a good Packers defense at home vs Brian Hoyer and we have an ok Giants defense at home vs Justin Fields and the David Montgomery-less Bears.
Thats my defensive theme this week, take some of those easy spots and rest easy.
The Ambush: If a Defense looks very safe and easy this week, it’s because they are. Like the Packers.
[spacer height=”12px”]
#5. THE AMBUSH FADES
- I am not sacking the Bills vs Ravens and thus the QB are fades for me
- None of the big RB are guys who I am running away from, but I really say proceed with caution on Jamaal Williams. That game could be over very fast with both teams slowing things down on offense.
- Darren Waller … Because it’s Adams day.
[spacer height=”12px”]
AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS
Question: Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it Kyler Murray?
The Cardinals have shockingly been an okay team playing on the east coast recently and even more so when they get the fortunate 4PM time slot coming east. I think Kyler offers as much benefit as Lamar and Allen but at far less ownership and the Panthers actually are trying to play faster on offense themselves.
[spacer height=”10px”]
Question: Favorite Core Plays On DK/FD for a Balanced Lineup
Austin Ekeler
Terry McLaurin
Rondale Moore
T.J. Hockenson
[spacer height=”10px”]
Question: Favorite Pay Up Player outside of the Balanced CORE
Nick Chubb
Davante Adams
[spacer height=”10px”]
Question: Game Stacks of the week are?
Cardinals vs Panthers
Browns vs Falcons
Commanders vs Cowboys
Jets vs Steelers
[spacer height=”10px”]
Question: Top Bets of the week?
Jaguars/Eagles UNDER 45.5
Colts -3.5
Cardinals / Panthers OVER 43.5
[spacer height=”10px”]
Question: Upsets Parlay
We hit gold last week, not as clear cut this week so I would encourage playing these straight up or with a favorite or another pick.
Seahawks ML
Cardinals ML (Basically even money, so it’s kinda cheating)
NY Jets ML
[spacer height=”10px”]