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NFL Week 7 – The AMBUSH

Welcome to the Week 7 edition of The Ambush.

There have been a couple of trends mentioned in reference to the current NFL DFS season as it pertains to ownership and lineup construction for “GPP WINNERS”.  Now, I am not one who just concerns myself with “what did the first place lineup have” because there’s a ton of variables that got that lineup to the top and a lineup build in 9th or 10th place could be very close with a break here or there.

But the two trends thus far have been that there’s been a good amount of low owned one offs in lineups with a cumulative ownership on the lineup being low — as well as non QB-WR-Other Side/Run It Back stacks being the winners.

Well, I definitely see the chalk side changing this week.  This appears to be one of the more clear ‘chalk will do fine’ weeks, but it doesn’t mean you can’t go with a low owned play and pan off.  It just means that if you want a safe/get me over lineup, there’s a lot of obvious guys in good spots this week.

So choose your fades wisely and don’t overthink “Is this guy in too good of a spot”.

NOTABLE INJURY UPDATES

  • Russell Wilson – OUT
  • J.K. Dobbins – OUT
  • Darren Waller – OUT
  • D’Andre Swift – Questionable – This is huge for me

WEATHER

  • No issues

DANGER SPOTS

  • Ravens and Bucs play next TNF
  • Packers at Bills next week

THE AMBUSH PLAY…

PATRICK MAOMES … Hey, this guy here isn’t bad at football you know?  He’s like really good in fact and he will be maybe the 7th or 8th highest owned Quarterback at best across the industry.  Why do I love Mahomes here?   Because he is going to have the entire offense funnel through him this week and this is a great remember me spot as he follows up the Bills loss with a 4 TD performance.

Coming off a loss Mahomes is almost sure to account for 3 TD and the 49ers defense didn’t exactly dominate vs Marcus Mariota last week.  I like this as the game of the week which gets ignored and Mahomes is the funnel QB to trust just like Sam Hartman was yesterday in the College Tailgate DFS article which you should be reading.

I ALSO LIKE…

Derek Carr … Carr is not that much cheaper than Mahomes on FanDuel but he is on DraftKings and the Raiders should drop a 40 buger on the Texans.

BE CAUTIOUS WITH…

Tom Brady … He is old, the talent around him isn’t great and the Panthers defense can still get after the Quarterback.

THE AMBUSH PLAYS…

James Robinson … Too much love for Etienne this week.  Robinson in the Jaguars two wins had 40 total carries and in their 4 losses he has 41 total carries.  The formula is simple here as Robinson is the key to Jacksonville winning.

D’Andre Swift … He is questionable and a big questionable mark, but I am telling you the Lions could not be my bigger upset pick of the week than they are.  Dallas is not a team a trust with Dak coming back off his hand injury and the Lions are coming off a BYE and should be closer to 100% as they have been all year.  Lord knows they shouldn’t be passing against that Dallas pass rush.

I ALSO LIKE…

Josh Jacobs … I  have been burned by Jacobs getting a just okay performance too much for me to load up on him in Week 7.  I believe this is Carr and Adams getting their easy production while Jacobs finishes with an 80 yard performance.  Good, not great.

Austin Ekeler … If Ekeler disappoints its because he is a high $ play and has a hard time getting to 30 points, not because he has a bad game.

Tony Pollard … With the way that the Lions have been gashed on the ground at times as the 29th ranked rush defense and 29th in rushing TD to Running Backs we would be silly to not expect Pollard to have a chance at a big TD run.

Kenneth Walker II

BE CAUTIOUS WITH…

Jonathan Taylor

THE AMBUSH PLAYS …

Davante Adams … Who’s gonna guard him on Houston?  Who????

Terry McLaurin … Welcome back to Terry McLaurin with Dotson banged up and the QB switch to Heinickie he should see a ton of targets and a ton of play action connections.

Michael Pittman Jr. … Pittman can carve up the Titans secondary in his sleep.  They’re nearly the worst team in the league in touchdowns allowed to WR.

Tee Higgins … Big and physical WR vs Atlanta

I ALSO LIKE …

Brandin Cooks

THE DK BARGIN BIN …

Donovan Peoples-Jones

BE CAUTIOUS WITH …

Tyler Lockett / DK Metcalf

In case you haven’t heard by now it is national tight ends day and I am sure that every show is going to be going over this 24×7 today…. Just an FYI.

THE AMBUSH PLAYS…

Travis Kelce … While I trust Mahomes naked we cannot overlook that Kelce is the one who at his high price is very low owned paired with Mahomes and my favorite get different spot.  This slate is absolute garbage though for National f’n TE day and I’ll just take the best guy on the board here, thank you.

I ALSO LIKE…

Kyle Pitts … Eww.  Gross.  But then so are the Bengals vs TE.

BE CAUTIOUS WITH…

Greg Dulcich … Cmon people.

THE AMBUSH PLAYS …

Tampa Bay

Detroit

I ALSO LIKE …

Jacksonville

Baltimore

AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS

Question:  Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it PATRICK MAHOMES?

After last week’s showcase game wound up finishing a little under expectations I think a good amount of people are looking to shop elsewhere and that’s the best time to take Mahomes — especially a naked Mahomes.

Question:  Favorite Core Plays On DK/FD for a Balanced Lineup

James Robinson

Terry McLaurin

Travis Kelce

Question:  Favorite Pay Up Player(s) outside of the Balanced CORE

Davante Adams

Question:  Game Stacks of the week are?

Chiefs-49ers

Lions-Cowboys

Texans-Raiders

Question:  Top Bets of the week?

Jaguars -3.0

Lions +6.5

Raiders -7

Chiefs -1

Overs.  I love the overs this week.

Question:  Upsets Parlay(s)

Lions + Commanders + Colts