Alright we are into the middle of November and we have a -40 point spread on the main slate…. *whispers* I fucking am hammering the -40 *whispers*… We are inching closer and closer to everyone’s rivalry game as well which introduces some trap or upset fears for some teams. But not that -40 in my mind and I feel that most potential upsets will come from teams impacted by injuries more than anything else.
The other thing is weather, we have some weather to make note of this week…
Key Weather Notes:
- LSU at Arkansas … 31 degrees, no rain, 11 mph wind. That’s a bit nipply.
- Mizzou at Tennessee … 45 and Rain
- Indiana at Ohio State … 50% chance of snow.
- Purdue at Illinois … Cold and windy, but not drastic wind.
- Nebraska at Michigan … Cold and rainy
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THE Ohio State Buckeyes
This is your -40 point favorite as Ohio State is at home vs Indiana. There are a few chances where Ohio State might not drop a 60 burger again this week after a quiet Saturday in a windy game last week.
The first is that Indiana just never leaves Bloomington, IN. The second is that they land in Columbus and just opt to go to a Blue Jackets game instead. The third is that the entire team comes down with some random wild virus that nobody has ever heard of. And the fourth is something out of Arachnaphobia.
TreyVeon Henderson returns, CJ Stroud is fine, Marvin Harrison is fine, Emeka Egbuka is fine and Ohio State is going to use this game as a tune up before going on the road to Maryland next week and then welcoming Michigan in two weeks for some revenge. This game is over at the half when Stroud has 5 TD.
- CJ Stroud, Marvin Harrison, Emeka Egbuka
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LSU at Arkansas
Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson remains questionable but I strongly think he is going to play. Obviously if he doesn’t then we will move off him and onto Sanders and Boutte alone.
I continue to be impressed with the job that Brian Kelly is doing down in LSU and coming off a big win at home vs Alabama they’ll be in more of a shootout game with Arkansas. The Razorbacks can do what Alabama couldn’t and let their QB run wild on LSU this week. The one two punch for Arkansas of KJ Jefferson and Raheim Sanders is a problem for LSU and I wouldn’t be shocked if Jadon Haselwood hauled in a 27 yard touchdown pass here too.
It’s an early start for LSU going on the road following a big win and once they fall down by 14 points, Jayden Daniels and Kayshon Boutte will have to turn it on. Boutte is in need of some big games to re-affirm his first round draft stock and that should start this week.
I do have slight concerns here that its cold in this game, so maybe limit it to one player from each side.
- KJ Jefferson, Raheim Sanders, Jadon Haselwood
- Jayden Daniels, Kayshon Boutte
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SMU at USF
SMU Running-Back Tyler Lavine is $3,400 and has been getting a heavy workload as they move hte ball at will and now faces a rush defense allowing 5.7 YPC. A lot to digest here and I certainly don’t throw him up at the top of my RB list if we ignore salary, but factoring it in, he’s the first option to look at in this game.
Oh, then there is that Tanner Mordecai guy. Tanner Mordecai is probably still wearing the same jock strap he had on last week after a world record setting performance with nine touchdown passes.
USF allows 70% completion rate on the season, they don’t stop much and so I don’t see how they’re gonna stop Rashee Rice. In fact, the Bulls best chance here is to trust the ground game with Brian Battie taking the full volume this week. Give him the rock and hope he can produce like he has been.
- SMU: Tanner Mordecai, Rashee Rice, Tyler Lavine
- USF: Brian Battie (RB) – USF
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Games to avoid
- Notre Dame at Navy
- Purdue at Illinois
- Louisville at Clemson
- Nebraska
- UCF at Tulane
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CJ STROUD – Ohio State – $9,500
He has to throw 5 TD to pay off. He should throw about 8 TD to be honest with you against this shitty Indiana defense.
Flex your nuts type game for THE Ohio State Buckeyes at home.
KJ JEFFERSON – Arkansas – $6,500
Cold wont bother Jefferson here, he rushes it plenty to capitalize on a defense which can be beat with a consistent ground game. Honestly, if he sits then it’s just a 1 QB week for me.
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Would use in multi-lineups …
- Jayden Daniels – With Boutte
- Tanner Mordecai – With Rice
- Hunter Dekkers – With Hutchinson
- Sean Clifford – With Bourboun
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BRIAN BATTIE – USF – $5,300
Spending up at QB and WR is too hard to ignore, so I am needing to trust the value and mid range Running Backs more than the studs this week.
We begin with Battie, facing the 120th ranked rush defense, one which gives up more TD on the ground and one that likely should be attacked with a ground game to limit possessions for their QB.
Despite the fact that SMU is racking up points, they have still been attacked by opponents for 182, 183, 175 and 127 rushing yards over the last four games with 7 total touchdowns in that span.
Battie averages 6.5+ ypc and 12+ touches per game. Give me that and a touchdown and we’re golden. Give me 3x that and we’re dancing.
TYLER LAVINE – SMU – $3,400
I bumped him up once I tinkered with my initial CORE build a good number of times because of the massive bulge I have right now for loading up on WR this week.
RAHEIM SANDERS – Arkansas – $7,100
You can definitely pair him with KJ Jefferson but also can be rolled naked.
Sanders and Jefferson should battle to see who scores the rushing touchdowns for the Razorbacks.
DONNIE EDWARDS – Michigan – $5,600
I was initially going to write up Corum who probably gets 20 himself, but in a likely blowout the Wolverines will give Edwards enough touches and with so many good WR on this slate I would rather spend there.
JORDAN WATERS – DUKE – $5,000
This is a great spot for the Duke RB at home vs VT’s rush defense that has been better in 2022 but is still not great.
Waters and Jaquez Moore are doing the damage out of the backfield and both are 5k or less. I lean Waters here.
Also Consider …
Tony Mathis (WVU) … When WVU gives it to one player they usually have strong games, but this looks like a 50/50 split tomorrow
Blake Corum (Michigan) … Does not suck at the Football.
Dominic Richardson (Oklahoma State) … The Cowboys are easily my favorite bet this afternoon. They should get a strong game from Richardson against a good rush defense in Iowa State, but the game flow isn’t going to be exceptional compared to the other spots.
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Live look at every WR this week …
KAYSHON BOUTTE – LSU – $5,300
The last four weeks Boutte has been closer to his potential with 6, 6, 4 and 7 receptions over that stretch.
The trend should continue going higher and in a spot where they could be down early he should have a chance to break off one of his signature big catches.
MITCHELL TINSLEY – Penn State – $6,200
Had 3 touchdowns in his first 4 games and just one since then. A season ago former PSU WR Jahan Dotson dropped 11-242-3 on the similar Terps defense in Maryland.
Look for Tinsley to have that reception volume this Saturday with good weather in Happy Valley and if it’s not him then it was Parker Washington going off. One of them is going to have a huge game, but I would rather have the WR than take Clifford.
MARVIN HARRISON – Ohio State – $7,900
I just cannot get Ohio State having 5 receiving touchdowns in the blink of an eye this week. The most likely guy to get the easy ones is Marvin Harrison Jr.
RASHEE RICE – SMU – $Expensive, Who cares…
Nobody is going to be able to guard Rice for USF. It’s just that simple and it’s just a matter of how many touchdowns does he get. He’ll have receptions and yards just by stepping onto the field.
SAM JAMES – West Virginia – $5,500
The only person who has been at West Virginia longer tham Sam James is some dead body which nobody has noticed in Morgantown from the 1970’s. James never wins a slate, but he’s pretty steady when getting up tempo match-ups like this.
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Would use in multi lineups …
- Xavier Hutchinson / Jaylin Noel (ISU)
- Emeka Egbuka – OSU
- Kaleb Smith – VT
- JaCorey Brooks – BAMA
- Deuce Watts – Tulane
- Xavier Weaver – USF
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RANKING THE POSITION DEPTH
WR
RB
QB
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CORE BUILD
QB – KJ Jefferson
RB – Brian Battie
WR – Marvin Harrison
WR – Kayshon Boutte
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BETS
Ohio state -40 … Why not?
USF +17.5
Arkansas 1H Money Line
Penn State -10
Oklahoma State ML
Parlay every bet above with Wake Forrest -4 which is the night slate hammer tonight.