Key Weather Notes:
There isn’t anything that is insanely bad today, just some cold spots with winds 10-15 mph…. Here are those main spots.
- Indiana at Michigan State: Windy
- Illinois at Michigan: Windy
- Wisconsin at Nebraska: Windy
- TCU at Baylor: Windy
- BC at Notre Dame: Windy
We also have Senior Day narratives to monitor the next two weeks as well. Most teams who are playing today at home are playing their Senior Day narratives.
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Houston at East Carolina (-6)
54 Degrees with no wind and no precipitation here with a 2PM EST start time, so this one is going to have a hard time not delivering IMO.
Houston’s bad red zone defense should make life easier for the home Pirates and Holton Ahlers who at $6,200 is likely to pick up lots of QB ownership this week for good reason. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him rush one in as well.
Houston has the #1 rated QB on the slate per our model and with star WR Nathaniel Dell and an opponent that doesnt stop passing attacks we have an obvious pairing there to begin the day with.
Houston
- QB – Clayton Tune
- WR – Nathaniel Dell
- WR – Samuel Brown (Value)
ECU
- QB – Holton Ahlers
- WR – Isaiah Winstead
- WR – Ryan Jones (Senior TE) – Value
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Washington St (-4) at Arizona
Both teams should be able to pass without much issue and this is one of those nice warm weather spots on this late November slate. A great opportunity for this one to have full game correlation to be stack-able.
The most important aspect of this game is Washington State RB Nakia Watson who is $3,800 on DraftKings and for sure to be the highest owned player of the season. Arizona has a terrible rush defense and Watson is coming off back to back 100+ yard games with 4 TD and 36 carries over those two games. So sure, lets make him sub $4,000 today, just absolute brilliant job checking the algo by DraftKings… Did they hire all the fired Twitter employees or what?
One player to keep an eye on here for Arizona is Michael Wiley. He is only $6,200 and likely gets ignored for the Wildcats despite coming off a couple big games, but this is more of a passing spot vs Washington State, so I would make him the third leg of an Arizona stack.
Washington State
- RB – Nakia Watson
- QB – Cameron Ward
- WR – Dezhaun Stribling
Arizona
- QB – Jayden de Laura
- WR – Jacob Cowing
- RB – Michael Wiley
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Texas (-9) at Kansas
This will feel like a big relief for Texas playing vs the Jayhawks defense after TCU gave them fits last week. Expect both teams to play fairly loose here as neither has much to play for with Bowl games secured.
The situation at QB for Kansas makes things difficult to game stack both sides though because we will see QB Jason Bean (Senior) and QB Jalon Daniels likely split work although if it winds up being just one then that is Jason Bean.
Texas
- QB – Quinn Ewers
- RB – Bijan Robinson
- WR – Xavier Worthy
Kansas
- QB – Jason Bean (Risky due to playing time)
- WR – Lawrence Arnold
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CLAYTON TUNE – Houston – $8,100
If you like a safe option, then this is the pick you want to ride. He should continue to sustain his 35+ pass attempt per game rate and complete a lot of them this week against a fairly soft ECU passing defense.
JAYDEN de LAURA – Arizona – $7,900
Much like Tune, the volume will be good and the pace of this game should be favorable as well. The attempts the last two weeks on the road were down, but in the five home games this season JDL has thrown it 45, 28, 46, 42 and 43 times. The one time below 40 was their one home win against North Dakota St. So if the trend continues with Arizona losing at home then he will throw it 40+ times. Can’t ask for much more then that.
HOLTON AHLERS – East Carolina – $6,200
If Ahlers rushes one in he is the guy to own. If ECU gets rushing TD elsewhere then he likely flops, its a tough do or don’t pick this week with Ahlers.
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CORE RB PLAYS
NAKIA WATSON – Washington State – $3,800
I guess DraftKings thought he was dead and not gonna play after two strong games returning from injury? There’s no reason for him to be this cheap and no reason for us to fade him against the 122nd ranked rush defense giving up 5.18 YPC.
BIJAN ROBINSON – Texas – $9,100
Here’s how I view Robinson this week. You are playing Robinson with Watson for a combined $12.9k on DraftKings. So I basically get Robinson for $6,500 against Kansas? Yeah, there’s nothing wrong with that at all unless this turns into another Xavier Worthy show and even then I can see both of them going over 100 yards respectively with each getting a touchdown, so spread the love around Sarkisian and we’ll be good.
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FLEX RB OPTIONS
I cannot find many reasons to not play the two above, so everything else turns into a matter of who could blow up as a slightly lower owned pick or a third (or 4th?) running back with lots of cold weather games today…
KENNY MCINTOSH – Georgia – $6,500
After Kentucky got gashed for 6.5 ypc by Vanderbilt for crying out loud they now have to welcome in Georgia’s vaunted running game.
DEUCE VAUGHN – Kansas State – $7,400
Here’s why I really like Deuce this week. I believe WVU is going to put them on upset alert – and if that game flow is happening then lock in on Deuce having a huge receptions game. With Will Howard at QB Vaughn has 4-4-8 receptions in their last 3 together and should be forced into that role this week more against a good rushing defense.
KEATON MITCHELL – East Carolina – $7,100
Unlike the other top RB on this slate Mitchell is the lone RB at home and in our favorite game of the day. I mentioned above how Ahlers rushing TD decides the slate one way or another and the another is Mitchell taking away those rushing touchdowns for himself against a bad RZ defense.
BRAELON ALLEN – Wisconsin – $7,000
I figured we would be playing the RB cover boy more this year, but maybe there is a jinx with the guys I put on covers (B.Young,B.Allen,K.Boutte) all not being the DFS gems this season. That and the low total here aside, I can definitely see Wisconsin putting Nebraska out of their misery after a long season with Allen gashing them on the ground for some big runs.
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Huge RB slate, so here’s two more for the MME crowd
- Richard Reese (BAY), Will Shipley (CLEM)
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CORE WR PLAYS
JAYDEN REED – Michigan St – $5,600
Senior WR who basically splits all the receptions with one other player (Keon Coleman) and has his easiest opponent of the season at home on Senior day. He’ll score, and he’ll finish with over 75 yards receiving. It’s just a matter of if Indiana goes 3 and out or gets some yards before punting to determine if he can push over the 100 yard receiving mark.
NATHANIEL DELL – Houston – $8,200
I really like Dell and Sam Brown for Houston because that’s just how they gotta attack East Carolina. The $4k price difference is VERY hard to navigate around this week where playing 3 RB and even 2 QB seems like an optimal build. But I cannot tell you NO on Dell given that they are on the road and should trust him more over Brown on key third down situations.
JACOB COWING – Arizona – $7,600
I would not play Cowing naked without Jayden de Laura and I would not play JDL without Cowing. They go together like white on rice my friends. Cowing is consistent in his targets and Washington State gives up the second most passing touchdown % on this entire slate.
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FLEX WR PLAYS
ISAIAH WINSTEAD – East Carolina – $7,000
Winstead has a strong Quentin Johnston break the slate at sub 20% ownership feel to him if we can get the ownership that low. He is not on the same talent level as Johnston but does have a big frame that lends him to being an easy red zone passing option for ECU this week.
XAVIER WORTHY – Texas – $6,500
WR have torched the Jayhawks all season long, so there’s obviously potential for a big game from Worthy.
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VALUE
SAMUEL BROWN – Houston – $4,200
As mentioned above, Brown is the more roster friendly choice because of significant price savings he will bring.
LEYTON SMITHSON – Washington State – $3,000
Freshman WR who has been utilized more frequently of late and scored vs Arizona State last week. Considering he has receptions of 4, 5, 3, 3 over their last four and is the bare minimum price in a game with a 63 total in mid November we cannot complain much here if he gets you an 8-10 result.
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RANKING THE POSITION DEPTH
- Running Back
- Quarterback
- Wide Receiver
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CORE BUILD
QB – Clayton Tune
RB – Nakia Watson
WR – Jayden Reed
FLEX – Bijan Robinson
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BETS
Michigan State -10
Washington St/Arizona OVER 63
West Virginia +7.5
Maryland +27.5