Black Friday? More like College Football Friday. There’s no reason to watch that damn Soccer game today either as we have a great eleven game CFB DFS slate today and then a massive one tomorrow.
Key Weather Notes:
Weather is much better around the country today. The only cold weather game is between Utah State and Boise State while no game has major wind issues. Some rain could come into play in Florida/Florida State and Baylor/Texas.
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There isn’t one or two games which are above the rest, but these five collectively are my favorites.
North Carolina State at North Carolina
My son will be at this game and if there is any late news which we miss then we’re blaming him for it, cool? Nah, in all seriousness we should be clear to go for the Tar Heels side against a good NC State defense but with a rivalry game here and NC State being banged up on offense I think UNC gets enough short fields to have a 4+ touchdown game from Drake Maye with 3 through the air.
- QB – Drake Maye (UNC)
- WR – Josh Downs (UNC)
- WR – Thayer Thomas (NCST)
- WR – Darryl Jones (NCST)
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UCLA at California
This slate is not a deep one at Quarterback, so when looking at ‘stacking’ games you are going to find thin options which have 2 QB that can be trusted. This is one of them as we know DTR will do damage on the ground while Jack Plummer is a seasoned enough Quarterback to play well versus a pass defense that has holes in it.
- QB – Dorian Thompson-Robinson (UCLA)
- WR – Jake Bobo (UCLA)
- WR – Kam Brown (UCLA)
- QB – Jack Plummer (CAL)
- WR – Jeremiah Hunter (CAL)
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Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan
The RB are the featured attraction here with Lew Nichols III ($6500) and Samson Evans ($7300) being dominant RB for their team and likely going over 100 yards each respectively. I prefer Evans and the Eastern Michigan side because Jase Bauer will come in at times and run it for CMU, but also I don’t think CMU’s offense can just run all over EMU.
- RB – Samson Evans (EMU)
- RB – Lew Nichols (CMU)
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Arkansas at Missouri
Missouri is trying to get back to a bowl game for the 4th time in 5 years and that’s more of an indication of how many Bowl games there are rather than the quality of their program. That said, I do think there’s some juice with them in conference play having some near upsets and they can beat Arkansas and make this into a nice sneaky shootout.
- QB – Brady Cook (Mizzou)
- RB – Cody Schrader (Mizzou)
- RB – Raheim Sanders (Arkansas)
- WR – Dominic Lovett (Mizzou)
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Arizona State at Arizona
Highest total on the board, something you’ll want some pieces from but not one that I am stacking up on both sides because the touchdowns will come on the ground.
- QB – Jayden de Laura (ARIZ)
- RB – Xazavian Valladay (ASU)
- RB – Michael Wiley (ARIZ)
- WR – Jacob Cowing (ARIZ)
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DRAKE MAYE – UNC – $9,000
Maye is the obvious correlation with Downs likely going off on the outside this week. I believe he will pepper him a ton on deep passes and if Downs gets knocked down inside the five then it’s Maye who finishes it off with his legs.
JACK PLUMMER – California – $5,900
Man this is a tempting price tag on Plummer who has a set of WR that can get open vs UCLA and should have to be throwing it a high volume.
DORIAN THOMPSON ROBINSON – UCLA – $9,400
His legs have eto get it done. California gives up 130 YPG and DTR will need to steal about 50 of those away from Charbonnet to pay off. Typically a rushing QB on the road pays off though.
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CORE RB PLAYS
SAMSON EVANS – Eastern Michigan – $7,300
I really like Evans a good amount this week and since he is $2,000 cheaper than Bijan Robinson I pushed him up into this tier to put the nuts on the board. Both teams are going to lean on their strong RB (Nichols for CMU) but the majority of DFS players likely go with the road Nichols because he is cheaper. Ah, Ah, Ah my friends…. Samson at home and Eastern Michigan get it done in a VERY sneaky shootout game.
XAZAVIAN VALLADAY – Arizona State – $7,500
From a statistical advantage perspective Valladay is at the top of the list for the schedule of games tomorrow. Arizona ranks 124th defending the run and allowing nearly 7 YPC in 2 of their last 4.
CODY SCHRADER – Missouri – $4,700
Good value here with Schrader coming off a good game and likely getting the majority (if not all) of the Missouri carries this week against a middle of the road Arkansas rush defense.
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FLEX RB OPTIONS
BIJAN ROBINSON – Texas – $9,300
Here’s the deal… Bijan Robinson is not going to play in Texas’ bowl game. Which means when Texas does get into a Bowl game, it’s going to be the Ewers show so please write that down in your little black book right now.
Now, enjoy the Bijan Robinson farewell show today vs Baylor who shot their load last week against TCU in a loss.
George Holani – Boise State – $7,900
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The spots to pick on for WR options are thin but the ones which are present are VERY good themselves. I will list the alternate play for each spot below them…
CORE WR PLAYS
JOSH DOWNS – North Carolina – $8,100
I think Downs has a 4 touchdown game coming Friday at pretty low ownership all things considered. He has to compete with Jacob Cowing and not much else in terms of elite end WR options this week, which means you have to be stupid or something to try and get cute with another high $ WR. Take him and enjoy and you should be prioritizing him OVER Drake Maye if pinched for salary.
- UNC Alternate – Just not playing DFS.
JERJUAN NEWTON – Toledo – $5,200
The Rockets are favored on the road at Western Michigan and if they’re going to win this game he figures to be one to get the ball a lot. There are some question-marks on Toledo’s starting QB but it looks like Gleason should go and that’s enough assurance for me to bank on Newton being a must own at this price.
- Toledo Alternate – None, he is the star.
JEREMIAH HUNTER – California – $5,500
Cal has two great options for Plummer to have a good passing game today. Hunter and Strudivant — both of whom are reasonably priced.
- California Alternate(s): J’Michael Sturdivant
THAYER THOMAS – N.C. State – $7,400
Thomas is still the alpha WR for the Wolfpack, but I wouldn’t mind saving with Darryl Jones at $5,000 who should draw some favorable coverage and saw 9 targets in their last game.
- Alternates: Darryl Jones
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VALUE
Hal Presley – Baylor – $4,000
Luke Lachey – Iowa – $3,200
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RANKING THE POSITION DEPTH
- Running Back
- Wide Receiver
- Quarterback
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CORE BUILD
RB – Samson Evans
WR – Josh Downs
WR – Jerjuan Newton
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BETS
- Texas -8.5
- Eastern Michigan ML
- Toledo -7.5
- Missouri +4.5
- UNC -6.5