The day is here. The game everyone has been waiting for this college football season has made its way here. High Noon today.
COASTAL CAROLINA VS JAMES MADISON BABY!
Lets see if the trend from Friday where all the dogs were covering for most of the game (if not winning) continues on rivalry Saturday.
Key Weather Notes:
None
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Western Kentucky at Florida Atlantic
Tempo, tempo, tempo. We know WKU will go up tempo and the question is how much FAU wants to balance it out on their end. I cannot trust the full QB game stack here enough but the one QB to not ignore on this slate is Austin Reed.
- QB: Austin Reed
- WR: Malachi Corley & Daewood Davis
- WR: LaJontay Wester
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West Virginia at Oklahoma State
If you believe in Sanders going out with a bang then this is a quick little game stack that I like. Sanders to Presley (or Green) with BFW coming back on the other side.
- QB: Spencer Sanders
- WR: Brennan Presley / Brayden Johnson
- WR: Bryce Ford-Wheaton
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Iowa State at TCU
TCU is going to keep winning and keep the pedal down on this one. They simply have nothing to lose here if they are up by two scores and looking to add on more, which means Quentin Johnston could shine despite facing a big physical secondary.
- QB: Max Duggan
- WR: Quentin Johnston
- WR: Xavier Hutchinson
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Michigan at Ohio State
Yeah you are either all in on this game being 42-35 or you are completely out on it. DraftKings has not made it easy to stack it up as they should have but lets not ignore that Michigan is likely to have to do damage through the air and if we get that shootout then JJ McCarthy and Ronnie Bell are having a big game for the Wolverines
- QB: JJ McCarthy
- QB: CJ Stroud
- WR: Ronnie Bell
- WR: Emeka Egbuka
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Austin Reed (Western Kentucky) – $7,700
With Reed we have the benefit of the WKU offense that has allowed him to throw 33 TD on the season averaging 41.9 attempts per game. With a middle of the road pass defense on the other side and one that has given up 60%+ of touchdowns through the air he is immediately in a spot to produce as normal.
Spencer Sanders (Oklahoma State) – $7,900
It has been a very weird season for the Cowboys and Sanders is at the front of that weirdness. The senior has just one game in conference play where he threw for two touchdowns and is coming off a 4 INT performance against Oklahoma on November 19th. And despite having 8 rushing touchdowns on the season, none of them have come since October 15th at TCU. This is a friendly spot against West Virginia at home and I am pretty confident in him playing well to close out the season.
Todd Centeio (James Madison) – $5,800
Two things we often get late in the season apply here. #1 is a team we haven’t been getting normally on Main slates and the second is value at the Quarterback position.
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Will Shipley (Clemson) – $6,700
Clemson’s rival is coming off a HUGE upset last week and Clemson should be able to get a push up front for Shipley to score within the red zone to go along with being a high volume play. Clemson doesn’t have too much to play for this week beyond just needing to win.
Micah Bernard (UTAH) – $5,800
Opponents have rushed for 6.9 and 6.4 YPC in two of the last three against Colorado – who for the season is 131st against the run giving up 5.38 YPC on average. This is now the spot for someone to step up into Tavion Thomas’ shoes as he is gone declaring for the NFL Draft early.
Nicholas Singleton (Penn State) – $5,700
While Sean Clifford might be tempting to use, I believe he will hand it off enough to the RB pool that should be able to produce and for sub 6k Singleton is likely to push close to 100 yards total rushing today. There is a clear top WR target in this game with Parker Washington out (see below) but I wouldn’t ignore the ground attack for the Lions either. Clifford is fine too, but there’s other QB I like.
Kenny McIntosh (Georgia) – $6,800
Georgia has a little tune up game before they go into the SEC Championship game versus LSU. They will need their ground attack working next week so this could be a quick work day for McIntosh and the Dawgs. He isnt a main lineup play however their just gonna gash Georgia Tech on the ground.
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Also look into …
- Alabama RB situation … Jahmyr Gibbs is not the one I am looking at here as much as giving consideration to using Jase McClellan who had a good game a week ago filling in for Gibbs.
- Devin Mockobee … Purdue is gonna back into the B10 Championship game. This smells like a nice heavy carry game for Mockobee
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Kris Thornton (James Madison) – $6,200
Senior WR leads the way with 53 catches on the year for the Dukes. This game should not have production without him having a big day. He is the #1 pick on the board today.
Malachi Corley (WKU) – $7,300 and Daewood Davis – $5,900
There are really four guys on WKU in Corley, Davis, Jaylen Hall and Michael Mathison. The smart route is just take the sure thing at Quarterback and not worry about which one does all the work at WR. The second level smart thing is to skip over the highest priced guy because you have his points through the QB and you want the value of a cheaper option. The crazy idea is taking the two cheapest guys in Hall and Mathison. The menu of what to do is left up to you but I do not mind going naked with just the QB.
One more nugget here: When WKU goes on the road, generally Corley has the bigger games. In recent road games he has gone for 99, 162, 100, 131 yards receiving. He is fine to pay up for.
Mitchell Tinsley (Penn State) – $6,100
No Parker Washington so it’s all on Tinsley against the poor Michigan State passing defense.
Sam Pickney (Coastal Carolina) – $6,900
Somehow the projections on Pickney will have his ownership lower mostly because of where his price falls. I think he makes for an easy 1b pick to Thornton in game stacks for JMU/Coastal.
Dalton Kincaid (Utah) – $6,600
With Thomas out of the way it likely pushes a few more play calls to the passing game for Utah and why not. You have one of the best pass catching TE in the country against a pass defense that’s been unable to force incompletions most of the season.
Ronnie Bell (Michigan) – $5,600
Leads the way for the Wolverines in targets at 26%.
Bryce Ford Wheaton (WVU) – $6,500
BFW could be a sneaky contarian pick against a bad pass defense. His price being higher than Sam James likely pushes the ownership for those who do touch this spot over there but
Brennan Presley (Oklahoma State) – $6,200
Not to be used naked, but for sure I am pairing Sanders with him in a Oklahoma/WVU Game stack. Him and Senior WR Brayden Johnson should get most of the targets for Okie State with Johnson maybe getting that Senior TD narrative but I doubt they force it too much.
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VALUE
We have a good number of dart options at WR today, most of which are pivots off some guys above.
- Savion Williams (TCU)
- KeAndre Lambert-Smith (PSU)
- Money Parks (UTAH) … Best name on the slate
- Dimitri Stanley (ISU)
- Terrance Greene (JMU)
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RANKING THE POSITION DEPTH
1 – WR
2 – RB
3 – QB
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CORE BUILD
QB – Austin Reed
RB – Will Shipley
WR – Kris Thornton
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BETS
Western Kentucky / Florida Atlantic OVER 62
Michigan +8
Oklahoma State -8
SC/Clemson UNDER 54
Oregon State ML
TCU -10 …. #1 bet today