Big whiff by the Bowl season people not making today a massive schedule since we have Christmas over the weekend and NFL dominating both of those days as well but then we have a big week coming up next week so I guess that’ll do.
Some fine DFS plays today, so lets dive in while most of the country freezes.
Louisiana vs Houston (-7)
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl (Shreveport, LA)
I really wonder how many people look at Louisiana vs Houston being played in Louisiana and assume that this is a ‘home’ field game for the Ragins…. Because, it’s not and honestly the two schools are closer to each other than they are to Shreveport, but I digress…
This should be all Houston. Louisiana isn’t exactly coming in with much momentum having lost 3 of their last 5, but I guess one could say they ‘got right’ beating up on Texas State in their regular season finale? Not sure they are really good enough to keep pace with Houston, who I think takes this one through the Tune to Dell combination.
Back the Cougs and stack the Cougs as both Clayton Tune and Tank Dell are expected to play.
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Missouri vs Wake Forest (-2.5)
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl (Tampa, FLA)
Much like the Houston passing attack, we have a veteran QB-WR combination on the Deacons side which is all systems go for their Bowl game and not having Sam Hartman on a big DFS slate to load up on is a big bummer. He’s gonna rush one, if not two in to go along with his two touchdown passes as well.
Everyone for Mizzou is playing except WR Dominic Lovett who said, fuck it I don’t love it that much, I’m going to Georgia instead. With him gone, we could see QB Brady Cook forced to run more in this game.
Wake is gonna cover, even with their bad defense.
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All four QB will do okay given their prices today, but as I rank them they would be as such. Pricing on DK is done well today and with some value at RB and WR we can pay for Hartman & Tune. You will want 2 QB no matter what though.
- Sam Hartman – Wake Forest – $8400
- Clayton Tune – Houston – $7400
- Brady Cook – Mizzou – $6500
Cory Schrader should see a bulk of carries against a bad rush defense and he’s too cheap which makes him easily the 95% play on a short two game slate. For those who bet on PrizePicks his over props all look favorable.
- Cory Schrader – Mizzou – $5200
- TaZhawn Henry – Houston – $5300
- Chris Smith – ULL – $6200
The Studs
These guys offer such high floors that I just cannot see a way where you build and get enough points without them. They should both get 100 yards receiving and a touchdown. Get em.
- AT Perry – Wake – $7000
- Nathaniel Dell – Houston – $7700
The Mid Range / WR3 Options
- Taylor Morin – Wake – $5000 … Morin, KeShawn Williams and Donavon Greene are the other WR with Perry, however Morin and Hartman have a long enough connection that I cant see Hartman not targeting him often.
- KeSean Carter – Houston – $3500 … Carter and Matthew Golden are viable 2nd WR options on Houston along with Dell.
Missouri Value Options for FLEX
Mizzou and Wake should be a good offensive game as we likely don’t have rain or cold to deal with down in Tampa. While Mizzou will have success on the ground they’re also likely to trust Brady Cook’s arm but finding the gap created by Lovett’s departure is the tricky part. These are the four options I am looking at with the most risky one listed first.
- Barrett Banister – Mizzou – $3300 (Playing time risk) … Word is he will return from injury and as a Senior is someone worth taking a shot on. Banister had 37-408-0 stat line on the season and wouldn’t be playing if they weren’t going to use him. The DFS industry might overlook him.
- Luther Burden – Mizzou – $4700 … Freshman who had 38 catches for 329 yards and 6 TD on the season. His TD production is baked into his price here.
- Mookie Cooper – Mizzou – $3800 … 19 catches, 0 TD on the season
- Mekhi Miller – Mizzou – $3000 … Could see a boost in this game if Banister doesn’t play.
ROSTER CONSTRUCTION/CORE
The Hartman-Perry and Tune-Dell combinations alone give a floor which could be hard to make up elsewhere. So build around those four with value options
QB: Hartman
RB: Schrader
RB: …
WR: Perry
WR: Dell
WR:
FL: Missouri Value WR
S-FL: Tune
BETS
Houston -7
Wake Forest -2.5