The heart of Bowl season kicks off with four games on this fine Tuesday in late December.
- Camelia Bowl – Buffalo vs Georgia Southern
- First Responder Bowl – Utah State vs Memphis
- Birmingham Bowl – East Carolina vs Coastal Carolina
- Guaranteed Rate Bowl – Wisconsin vs Oklahoma State
No weather issues for these games.
East Carolina (-7) at Coastal-Carolina
Grayson McCall is playing for Coastal despite entering the transfer portal and Holton Ahlers is playing for the Pirates.
Sign me up for some fireworks in this game which is a very underrated Coke vs Pepsi, Blue vs Red, Taysom vs Non-Taysom type debate. Yes, we have the Myrtle Beach vs Outer Banks debate for east coast beach goers and the correct answer in that debate is … neither, go to the Brunswick County beaches!
At any rate, the correct debate here is take the over. I love the evening start time on this game and both teams want to pass while neither team really defends the pass.
- ECU: Ahlers, Mitchell, Winstead, Johnson
- C-C: McCall, Pinckney, Mobley
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Buffalo vs Georgia Southern (-4.5)
The Bulls ranked third in the nation in plays per game averaging 80 per game (and actually ran 82.4 on the road) while Georgia Southern was 14th. This game has a high total of 67 because of the pace on both sides and some bad rushing defenses could help push it there if they need easy red zone touchdowns.
Buffalo was a team I thought would be good in the MAC this season but they wound up really struggling down the stretch, however I like their pass defense and that’s where Georgia Southern wants to attack. They have a million RB so we really can’t trust much but Gerald Green and OJ Arnold look like the lead backs for today. One of them is worth a shot – Green is a Junior and Arnold is a Freshman.
The mistake of the day in pricing on this game is WR Jeremy Singleton for Georgia Southern, he has an 19% target share with 714 total receiving yards on the season and is just $3,000. He’s playing and he is your 100% owned pick of the day.
- Buffalo: Cole Snyder, Mike Washington, Justin Marshall or Quian Williams
- GSU: Kyle Vantrease, Gerald Green/OJ Arnold, Jeremy Singleton, Khaleb Hood
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Utah State vs Memphis (-7)
Strength vs Strength as Memphis’ passing game (24th in the nation) faces the 28th best pass defense in Utah State.
A good amount of that for Utah State is weighed by their opponents, but none the less I am not really loving the Memphis side in this game. Give me the points and Utah St.
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Wisconsin (-3.5) vs Oklahoma State
This one is almost exactly what it sounds like. The QB match-up is going to be Freshman Myles Burkett ($4500) vs Freshman Garrett Rangel and I guess we just have to wonder if Braelon Allen is going to get 18-20 carries or if they go easy on him? Assuming Burkett starts, he will run it some, so he’s in play as a value QB option.
I want nothing on the Oklahoma State side. Not the way they finished the season and not with Rangel at QB.
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Grayson McCall – Coastal – $7,900 … McCall and Ahlers are 1&2 in the same game but McCall has less of a RB threat to take away options.
Holton Ahlers – ECU – $7,300 … I wouldn’t play Ahlers naked, that seems silly and likely should be paired with 2 East Carolina WR as we look to go heavy on WR on this game. If you go full Ahlers, you’re hoping that ECU relies on the pass game.
Myles Burkett – Wisconsin – $4,500 … Very cheap and could get you 40-50 yards rushing while having an okay passing match-up too. I wouldn’t think he has a 20 point type game in him, but if you do pivot off the $3k WR free square early this is a nice late value pick.
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Keaton Mitchell for ECU is the highest projected owned RB on this slate. I get it, he’s been really good and probably gets into the box, but I see ECU being in a passing situation quite a bit more today.
Calvin Tyler – Utah State – $6,300 …
When opponents get in the RZ vs Memphis they score via the ground 68% of the time. Tyler is the whole offense for Utah State, and despite declaring for the NFL Draft he is going to play in the bowl game — which is a scenario I love. He’s also playing this game in his home state and will have plenty of family and friends in the stands.
Braelon Allen – Wisconsin – $6,900 … The best aide for a freshman QB is a good RB. If Wisconsin doesn’t let Allen get enough volume today then I’ll just hang my hat on being stubborn. His ankle supposedly is all clear.
Mike Washington – Buffalo – $4,200 … This is my favorite value spot on the board. He’s going to touch the ball enough and will score. Buffalo SR RB Ron Cook Jr is not expected to play so its Washington and Al-Jay Henderson for the Bulls.
Gerald Green – Ga Southern – $4,600 & OJ Arnold – Ga Southern – $3,000 … Both are cheap and both should be able to take advantage of Buffalo’s rush defense.
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Jeremy Singleton – Ga Southern – $3,000 … Unless he dies on the field he is going to get 10+ fantasy points and so we’ll just make this a DK slate where we are all playing the same guy.
Sam Pinckney – C-C $6,600 … I love Pinckney to own the slate today. He saw 15 targets with McCall back and ECU gives up loads of passing touchdowns. Look for a massive game from Sam today.
Isaiah Winstead – ECU – $7,200 … I said you can’t play Ahlers naked and Winstead is the obvious #1 to pair with him while CJ Johnson and Shane Calhoun offer other Pirate WR stack options.
** RIsk ** Justin Marshall – Buffalo – $5,500 … The Bulls have two SR WR who can pose threats, but Marshall has the 6-3 height advantage to utilize down in the red zone. The problem here is what Buffalo is planning to do at WR. They’ve mixed up their depth chart for the Bowl game and he could be sitting this one out.
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Also don’t mind ….
- Justin McGriff – Utah State – $5200
- Khaleb Hood – Ga Southern – $5900
- Eddie Lewis – Memphis – $5400
- Shane Calhoun/Tyler Savage – ECU … ECU’s #1 TE Ryan Jones has declared for the draft and won’t play which is more reason to like Winstead/Johnson for targets, but this also opens up value at the TE spot where Ahlers likes to throw too. Calhoun had 23 catches for 165 yards on the season so he’s the logical pick, Savage – the pride of Aldie, VA is a big athlete who was a star WR in high school and a heck of a basketball player that I got to coach and coach against and one time I thought he blew out his knee in the second quarter of a game we had a 4 point lead in and then he came back into the game in the 4th quarter like Willis Reed and we lost because of my shitty coaching job… Anywho…
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LINEUP CONSTRUCTION
This isn’t a slate to get cute with one offs throughout your lineup. One of the BUFF/GSU and ECU/C-C games are going to go off and will warrant having a 4-5 man gamestack from them.
CORE
QB Grayson McCall
RB Calvin Tyler Jr
WR Sam Pinckney
WR Jeremy Singleton
BETS
Wisconsin -3.5
Buffalo / Georgia Southern UNDER 67
Georgia Southern ML
Utah State +7
Coastal Carolina +7