Today’s Bowl Games
- Military Bowl: Duke vs Central Florida – Annapolis, MD
- Liberty Bowl: Kansas vs Arkansas – Memphis, TN
- Holiday Bowl: Oregon vs North Carolina – San Diego, CA
- Texas Bowl: Texas Tech vs Mississippi – Houston, TX
No weather issues for these games.
Today’s DK gonna DK issue:
- Duke WR Jordan Moore is only $4500. Now, yesterday we saw the min priced guy actually show up to the game on crutches. But today’s issue isn’t the price, it’s the position. He is only $4500 yes but he is a fucking Quarterback on DraftKings. WTF are we doing!?@#? If you wanna be that guy who plays both QB Riley Leonard and him at QB-Super Flex then be my guest. I’ll pass with a loaded QB slate.
Notable Injuries to monitor
- UCF – John Rhys Plumlee – He’s gonna start, he’s had issues finishing games, but he’s gonna give it a go.
All four games are worthy of going off. This is the slate which should have a lot of points on it.
ARKANSAS (-2.5) vs KANSAS, over/under: 69
Kansas had a great start before some injuries and reality took over. Arkansas suffered through some injuries along the way as well but both teams have too much talent on offense playing and too much weaknesses on defense to not exploit this game. Arkansas had a good amount of defensive players leave via the portal as well, they are thin.
Arkansas is one of two teams (Oregon the other) where QB-RB-WR looks pretty straight forward and is a viable team stack, I don’t envision them straying from those key three guys today. The Jayhawks give up a ton of yards to #1 WR and a ton of touchdowns on the ground.
- Arkansas: KJ Jefferson, Raheim Sanders, Matt Landers
- Kansas: Devin Neal, Jalon Daniels
DUKE (-3) vs UCF, over/under: 62
There are three players in this game who are really popping off for me today. John Rhys Plumlee and Javon Baker for UCF with Jalon Calhoun for Duke. It’s not a great rushing spot for UCF, but I don’t mind using rushing QB against good rush defenses. We saw Plumlee use his legs against a good Tulane defense earlier this season and I wouldn’t be shocked if he had another solid game today for UCF with a rushing TD. But Javon should go over 100 yards receiving and is a top core play at $5.7k with no Ryan O’Keefe here for UCF
All that said, I kind of like Duke to win this game, and I like the way they finished off the season. Is Riley Leonard good enough to steal the show today? Hard to see him out doing the other top end QB, but he’s worth of a shot if you go all in on this game.
- Duke: Jalon Calhoun and maybe Riley Leonard
- UCF: JR Plumlee, Javon Baker, Xavier Townsend (Min price WR)
UNC at Oregon (-13), over/under: 75
If the high total of 75 hits it doesn’t mean that UNC went off as much as it means Oregon put up a 50 or 60 spot. UNC was really bad down the stretch and Maye really faded. It doesn’t help that he won’t have Downs in this game but Antoine Greene is good enough to keep them in the game for a while. If they wanna pull off an upset somehow Elijah Green has to figure into this as well. The best angle on UNC is with value from WR Kobe Paysour (3300), Kamari Morales (4100) or Bryson Nesbit (5000). All are risky though.
Bo Nix should cement his run here. He’s pricey though and with lots of other good offensive spots I believe we can fade him going a balanced lineup today.
I love Bucky Irving for Oregon. Love him…
- UNC: Drake Maye, Kobe Paysour
- Oregon: Bucky Irving, Kris Hutson
Ole Miss (-3.5) at Texas Tech, over/under: 71.5
This game should be much closer than the UNC/Oregon game. I’m not a huge Jax Dart guy but a lot of signs here point to him having a good Bowl game and send himself into 2023 as a top QB in the SEC. If this plays out where they try to get Dart some confidence going into 2023 then that negates Quinshon Judkins who is likely a chalky option at RB today.
- Ole Miss: Jaxson Dart, Jonathan Mingo
- Texas Tech: Jerand Bradley
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Riley Leonard (Duke) – $7700 … Out of all the options on this slate, Riley Leonard might be my favorite and that just feels weird. He’s dual threat enough to offer some upside there & played well down the stretch of the regular season.
KJ Jefferson (Arkansas) – $8500 … Arkansas probably will have 3 rushing TD today and Jefferson definitely has one of those. If he can give you the rushing TD with a passing TD and in a fast paced game then he’ll pay off.
Tyler Shough (Texas Tech) – $6000 … Mostly just a value play. Very cheap for someone who gets a n ice pace boost and has played well down the stretch.
John Rhys Plumlee (UCF) – $7500 … Gamestack with Leonard only for me
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Bo Nix, Drake Maye, Jalon Daniels … These might be the highest owned QB on this slate and all should do fine. I question if Maye can get enough done without Downs and since Oregon is going to just chew up clock the entire game when they have the ball. Bo Nix needs no analysis, he will do fine and it is just a matter of fitting him in at his price. Daniels needs Arkansas to light it up, pair him with KJ Jefferson only because Devin Neal should do a lot of lifting for the Jayhawks today. I am fading all 3, but all 3 will do okay.
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Play three RB today, heck, I wouldn’t be opposed to playing 4 RB today assuming it’s these 4 as you fade Nix/Jefferson/Daniels…
Bucky Irving (Oregon) – $5900 … Oregon is going to throttle UNC. Irving is probably in line to go over 20 fantasy points with a multi-touchdown game against a bad rush defense.
Devin Neal (Kansas) – $6300 … As bad as UNC and Kansas are against the run, so too is Arkansas. Devin Neal averaged 6.2 YPC on the season and so long as Kansas doesn’t get cute today he should have a solid floor game.
Quinshon Judkins (Ole Miss) … Volume could take a dip today but his upside is probably the highest if I am wrong.
Raheim Sanders (Arkansas) – $6900 … You can pair him with Jefferson without fear.
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Javon Baker (UCF) – $5,700 … Bakers last two games weren’t anything special and with O’Keefe gone here he should get 10+ targets against a soft Duke defense.
Jalon Calhoun (Duke) – $6,000 … Calhoun has big play ability, something which is going to have to work against UCF who only allowed 40% of touchdowns against through the air. At his price though his 23% target share makes him hard to ignore.
Kobe Paysour – UNC – $3300 … Top value WR who elevates up with Downs gone.
Kris Hutson (Oregon) – $5,300 … Good value and more exposure to Nix without using Nix
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Also don’t mind ….
- Jonathan Mingo (Ole Miss) – $6,300 … Feels like Mingo has been at Ole Miss forever, good send off spot for him. Texas Tech pass defense down the stretch was soft.
- Matt Landers – Arkansas – $5800
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LINEUP CONSTRUCTION
Depth is QB then RB then WR
CORE
You can interchange QB/Super-Flex stacks today. To get 2 QB though this is the CORE build that I find the most appealing
Bucky Irving – Oregon
Devin Neal – Kansas
Javon Baker – UCF
Jalon Calhoun – Duke
BETS
Duke -3
Arkansas -2.5
Ole Miss/Texas Tech UNDER 71.5