This is one of the most underrated Sports days of the year. A loaded slate of Championship games with some real intrigue in a few of them as well. Here is the full menu of games today including where the games are being played for neutral site games.
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- 12PM: Kansas St vs TCU (AT&T Stadium, Dallas)
- 12PM: Toledo vs Ohio (Ford Field, Detroit)
- 3PM: Coastal Carolina at Troy
- 4PM: Fresno St at Boise St
- 4PM: UCF at Tulane
- 4PM: LSU vs Georgia (Mercedes-Benz, Atlanta)
- 8PM: Clemson vs UNC (BOA Stadium, Charlotte)
- 8PM: Purdue vs Michigan (Lucas Oil, Indianapolis)
Key Weather Notes:
Rain expected between Coastal Carolina & Troy as well as UCF and Tulane. Meanwhile it will be cold in only the Fresno State vs Boise State game among the ones which are outdoors.
Kansas State vs TCU (-2.5)
Here is my shocker of the day. I think Kansas State is going to win outright! TCU won the prior meeting 28-28 in a home game on October 22nd and in that game TCU rallied for 21 second half points to win after trailing 28 to 17 at the half. In that game it was all the usual suspects you would think from both sides as Deuce Vaughn had 121 total yards and a score for Kansas State, Will Howard accounted for the other 3 TD and Kendre Miller & Quentin Johnston lead the Horned Frogs come-back.
I would expect a lot of the same in the B12 Title game and the prices on Vaughn ($7,800) and Miller ($5,900) are really good starting points for this game stack.
One thing is for certain. We want exposure in this game.
Stack configuration …
- KSU: Will Howard, Deuce Vaughn, Phillip Brooks
- TCU: Max Duggan, Kendre Miller, Quentin Johnston
Clemson vs North Carolina
The UNC high scoring game train has kinda slowed down in recent weeks with a 38 total vs Georgia Tech and then last weeks 57 vs NC State which really did not feel like it got to 57. But on the flip side, Clemson’s coming off a horrific defensive performance of their own vs South Carolina and this is really for nothing more than major bragging rights on both sides.
Which is why we’re going to this one.
I still stand by my long take that you run on UNC, so Will Shipley should have another great game and he is really in a groove right now to get it 15-20 carries for 80-120 rushing yards & 1 touchdown. Can he get a second or does DJ take it all himself? That’s our Clemson question.
Meanwhile Josh Downs only being $1,000 more than Green is where the ownership should go. One of them scores twice.
Stack configuration …
- CLEM: DJ Uliagalelei, Will Shipley
- UNC: Josh Downs
Coastal Carolina at Troy (-8.5)
The Sun Belt has been quite the conference this season, so it would be very fitting for that title game to feature some DFS entertainment for us. A lot in this game will depend upon what Coastal Carolina can do after a beating at the hands of James Madison last week and looking very bleak on offense against a good Troy defense.
They would love for QB Grayson McCall to return but it doesn’t sound promising that he would be able to go just yet. We could see a scenario where the true home team – Troy – is able to feed off a good defense and the home crowd to just light up Coastal and that provides some potential options.
Stack configuration …
- C-C: Sam Pinckney
- Troy: Gunnar Watson, Kimani Vidal, Tez Johnson/Deshon Stoudemire
If you can find the Quarterback who rushes for 2 touchdowns today, you will be happy. This isn’t to say that we won’t see some good passing performances but there isn’t a clear cut guy who is going to go out and throw it all over the field.
DJ Uiagalelei – Clemson – $7,300
I have never, ever, from day one, been on the DJ Uliagelelei train. But I had a dream that I was in Hong Kong making my way over to Tibet and I went and did some work as a looper in the Himalayas… And who do they give me? The Dalai Lama himself… You know, Twelfth son of the Lama, flowing robes… Grace… Bad… Striking ya know… So anyway, he hauls off and whacks one, big hitter this Lama, long into the crevasse and you know what he says?? DJ Uliage….Uliagelai… And I said Dalai, hey…. What if he keeps sucking, what then? And he said, oh no worries… When you die, on your death bed you will receive many crowns. So I got that going for me, which is nice.
Max Duggan – TCU – $8,100
On a slate where I don’t love much at Quarterback I would default with going to the game that I like the most. Duggan has been clutch all season for TCU and in any scenario where they are trailing he finds a way to put up numbers.
John Rhys Plumlee – UCF – $7,700
The kryptonite to a really good pass defense is usually a rushing Quarterback and Plumlee was able to exploit Tulane when they met a little under a month ago. One has to think Tulane makes adjustments but assuming he is healthy the full game I would believe JRP finds a way to get into the box rushing again.
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Deuce Vaughn – Kansas State – $7,200
Vaughn should be everything for Kansas State this week as there is simply no reason not to continue to give him 20+ rushing attempts and 5+ receptions in a must win game. In their prior meeting he wound up with only 12 rush attempts but still managed 6.92 YPC. He is a must own.
Tyjae Spears – Tulane – $6,700
The weather in New Orleans is more scattered storms than constant rain, but I would think Tulane still looks to rush the ball more with Spears than they did in their meeting on Nov 12th vs UCF. Much like Vaughn did in his prior meeting, Spears was at his low total for rush att in that game despite having a good YPC. The game flow will control this one but I think Tulane is going to win and Spears scores.
Donovan Edwards – Michigan – $6,400
The news that Blake Corum is not only out but out for the season is a big hit on Michigan and should be a red flag for us going into the B10 Championship as well as wherever they end up after this game (likely in the playoff). Edwards immediately jumps up as a volume safe play here but I could see the passing game doing some damage as well, so I caution immediately locking in on Edwards unless you are just plugging him in as a third RB.
Will Shipley – Clemson – $6,800
Shipley has a rushing touchdown in five straight games and all but two of the Tigers games this year. If DJ is not your QB then Shipley should be your RB1
Kendre Miller – TCU – $6,600
A terrific game stack option here is Miller, who has a ton of talent and seems to come up with a big play when they need it most.
Kimani Vidal – Troy – $5,700
RB is the deepest position for CFB on this Saturday and sub 6k is what I would consider good value on a slate where your lineup is pretty flat/balanced in terms of pricing. Vidal just popped off for a 4 TD game in Troy’s win over lowly Arkansas State on Nov 26, and he has posted back to back 200+ rushing yard games. If this one gets out of hand then it’s Vidal who is doing the extra lifting.
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Quentin Johnston – TCU – $6,500
Johnston is the best true WR on this slate and he will score. Give me all of him and give me that 2 TD game where he cements his status as a top WR going into the NFL draft next season. Because it aint happening in the CFB playoff against Georgia…
Jerjuan Newton – Toledo – $5,000
Last week was ugly for Newton and Toledo and he didn’t see a target until the start of the second half. A nice climate controlled game in Detroit will be the perfect bounce back spot for a pretty affordable price on Newton. One play and he can pay off.
Brock Bowers – Georgia – $6,000
I can’t see the SEC Championship just going the route of a 7-3 final score and LSU has too much momentum in this season to just lay down after losing to Texas A&M last week. So they’ll push Georgia and in the end Georgia wins but not without Bowers being a sneaky under the radar play. There’s juice in this game and it’s hard to stack it but I trust the best play on the Bulldogs offense.
Josh Downs – North Carolina – $7,600 / Antoine Green – North Carolina – $6,600
It would be very difficult to play out a scenario by which UNC/Clemson has a lot of points and these guys aren’t involved. That said, I am starting my main lineup building around other components so they would most likely factor in as FLEX plays.
VALUE
- Deshon Stoudemire – Troy
- Joseph Ngata – Clemson
- Jaray Jenkins – LSU
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RANKING THE POSITION DEPTH
Running Back
Running Back
Running Back
Runn…
Wide Receiver
Quarterback
CORE BUILD
DJ
Vaughn
Spears
Johnston
CONTRARIAN PLAYERS
Jake Haener (Fresno)
Charlie Jones (Purdue)
Brock Bowers (Georgia)
BETS
Lets pick winners of each game shall we? Top 3 bets are in BOLD
Toledo ML
Kansas State +2.5
Coastal Carolina / Troy OVER 48
Tulane -4
LSU +17.5
Clemson/UNC under 63.5
Michigan -16.5
Fresno State +3