Hey look, week 14 is here. This fantastic product known as the National Football League. I wonder what the league will do this week to save face and distract from all the bullshit that they have going on within the league. Anyways, let’s win some money
THE AMBUSH PLAY…
JOSH ALLEN (DK: $8300, FD: $8700) … Spend up on Allen if you are comfortable with him going naked into your lineups. Maybe if you are fortunate his girlfriend will join him, but I digress. I think we saw Allen a little timid at first with his elbow injury but now he has had enough work with it to be comfortable to tear up the Jets secondary, something he couldn’t do as well in their last game when it was first a pain for him.
The Bills are about to re-hit their stride and the Jets are playing a little more up tempo with Michael Carter out, look for Allen to have 3+ passing touchdowns and his usual rushing damage.
I ALSO LIKE…
TREVOR LAWRENCE (DK: $5700, FD: $7200) … After a disappointment week for many vs the Lions last week, we shift back onto Lawrence who will be ignored this week by many despite facing a defense that has been a heavy funnel to the pass for a long time and hasn’t done much to fix it of late.
BE CAUTIOUS WITH …
JOEY BURROW
Yes, I love Burrow this week, but the return of Mixon is enough for me to shy away from loading up on Burrow.
This is a shorter slate this week it feels like, and one which RB does not feel that loaded up.
THE AMBUSH PLAY…
JOE MIXON (DK: $6900, FD: $8500) … If it was a leg or shoulder injury then we wouldnt rush Mixon back in. But a concussion that he has had plenty of time to heal up from and was cleared earlier in the week brings me no concerns.
I ALSO LIKE …
TONY POLLARD (DK: $6700, FD: $7500) … I have seen this from Dallas before, they are not going to overwork Zeek and Pollard could get that late game long touchdown run. Combine that together and he’s the better of the two picks from the chalky Cowboys.
DALVIN COOK (DK: $7300, FD: $8700) … If this game takes off then it will have to include Cook doing damage. The Lions give up a ton of TD through the ground and there should be lots of good RZ opportunities here for Cook.
VALUE SLEEPERS
BOSTON SCOTT (DK: $4200, FD: $5100) … Mr. I beat up on the Giants and absolutely nobody else.
MATT BREIDA (DK: $4300, FD: $4900) … I don’t suspect that Barkley misses this game, but even if he does Breida gets used enough and should get some optimal situation touches vs Philly.
BE CAUTIOUS WITH …
Baltimore RB
THE AMBUSH PLAY…
DJ MOORE (DK: $5500, FD: $6900) … Darnold back helps yes, but so too does facing Seattle’s secondary. Moore is a chalky, good value play whom with you shouldn’t get cute and just play him.
AMARI COOPER (DK: $6200, FD: $7300) … I am in love with Cooper this week. Watson never had a problem peppering his #1 WR in Houston and while Coopers targets dropped down to just 9 vs those Texans last week a good amount has to be factored based upon what the play calls were. This is a better offensive game and one which Cleveland needs to win through the air.
DJ CHARK (DK: $4300, FD: $5700) … What a time to be alive as the Lions WR group has become deep and hard to choose from within DFS. Alright, so a good amount here is based upon who they have been playing and where (at home), but until they stop playing low ranked pass defenses (statistically at least) and at home, we’re going here. Chark is 1/2 the price of Amon-Ra St. Brown but should once again be able to see 1/2 the targets and at his price I’ll take that trade.
I ALSO LIKE …
ZAY JONES … Jaguars WR will win this slate one way or another. Locking in on one is just as tough as locking in on a Lions WR though. Jones to me should have the best potential to go over 100 yards vs the Titans.
DK METCALF … If Walker sits I love this more than going to say a Travis Homer for the ‘Hawks offensive strategy.
MIKE EVANS … San Francisco is going to be physical with the Bucs, or try too. When that happens Brady will try to let Evans win 1:1 battles.
STEFON DIGGS … I can see Allen-Diggs-McKenzie or Davis being this weeks version of Hurts-Brown-Smith from last week where they just come out and torch their opponent through the air and you are like, man, why didn’t I just go the good players here?
Don’t mind using … Corey Davis, Diontae Johnson, Adam Theilen, Tee Higgins, Deebo Samuel (DK)
BE CAUTIOUS WITH …
CEEDEE LAMB … Both RB are optimal picks, the TE is in a good spot and every Tom, Dick and Jane who steps on the field for Dallas probably gets it done. I’ll pass and hope it’s spread out.
THE AMBUSH PLAY…
GEORGE KITTLE (DK: $4300, FD: $5900) … A young QB best friend is the TE position and this is one that Purdy used a good amount in college and should lean on vs the Bucs who are 22nd in recepetions, 25th in Touchdowns and 24th in yards vs TE on the season. They just gave up a TD last Monday to one as well.
I ALSO LIKE …
TJ HOCKENSON (DK: $5100, DK: $6500) … Boy, DraftKings didn’t do much to tempt everyone away from the obvious revenge narrative this week now did they?
MARK ANDREWS (DK: $6500, FD: $6800) … Both Andrews and Kelce have nice “get right” bounce back spots this week. Andrews is likely still playing in the 4th quarter, where as Kelce isnt.
NOAH FANT (DK: $2900) … I would only use Fant as a value punt on DraftKings and likely as a TE2 there with other TE value. He’s got a middle of the road matchup and this game is a nice one for late hammer offense.
BE CAUTIOUS WITH …
TRAVIS KELCE … I don’t see the tempo being good and I don’t see them needing him to go off.
THE AMBUSH PLAY…
EAGLES (DK: $3700, FD: $4700) … I love the chances of an Eagles D/ST score this week.
I ALSO LIKE …
COWBOYS (DK: $3800, FD: $5200) …
KC CHIEFS (DK: $3900, FD: $4500) …
BILLS (DK: $4000, FD: $4800) … The only path by which Allen fails is if the Bills score TD’s all game long on defense and never give him the ball.
BE CAUTIOUS WITH …
None
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AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS
Question: Who is getting OVERLOOKED this week and why is it JOSH ALLEN?
Question: Favorite Core Plays On DK/FD for a Balanced Lineup
- Joe Mixon
- DJ Moore
- DJ Chark
Question: Favorite Pay Up Player(s) outside of the Balanced CORE
- DK Metcalf
Question: Game Stacks of the week are?
- Cleveland vs Cincinnati
- Carolina vs Seattle
- Minnesota vs Detroit
Question: Top Bets of the week?
- Eagles -7.5
- Vikings +8 / Over 45.5 – 6 point teaser
- Browns +5.5
Question: Upsets
- Jaguars
- Bucs