Week 16 – NFL Main Slate
By now you probably know a few things. First you know that we have the MAIN slate on Saturday this week with a three game Christmas Slate and second you probably know that it’s colder than tits on a monkey this weekend across the country. Normally this type of year I would just say fine we’ll move onto those warm weather dome games this week but naturally the NFL scheduled a grand total of ZERO games in such spots for this Saturday.
That’s right, they probably wisely on their part put all the dome games on the Island spots this weekend with the Sunday and Monday games, so those who are actually trying to relax on Christmas Eve and just watch football get stuck with a ton of 13-9 type games.
But we’re not without some weather entertainment …
- Saints at Browns – Heavy winds with snow and wind chill below freezing
- Bills at Bears – Potential ‘Bomb Cyclone’. Sounds a little overly dramatic, but also windy here.
In general, its bleeping cold!
THE AMBUSH PLAY
DANIEL JONES (DK: $5600, FD: $7400) … The one dome game we got, Giants and Vikings up north and the Vikings are coming off a miracle win while the Giants are coming off a get out of Dodge win.
New York needs this game more to keep their playoff stranglehold but the Vikings aren’t far behind in the ‘need’ column to maintain the #2 seed in the NFC. Matt Ryan should have had a huge game and Daniel Jones should have one here too. Well, assuming he throws to Barkley a few times as well and not just hand offs…
ALSO LIKE
DAK PRESCOTT (DK: $6100, FD: $7500) … I would assume Dak gets most of the ownership on this slate. He missed their first match-up but Dallas is probably gonna have to lean on him to do most of the work vs the Eagles good rush defense.
Just going YOLO … Yeah, this is the type of Quarterback slate and DFS slate in general when you just throw all caution to the wind. I remember the last time that we had Christmas Eve football on a Saturday. It was 2016 and I don’t even have to look it up because I remember 80% of my lineup that day. I had Mark Ingram and Cameron Brate against each other in the 4PM window along with David Johnson vs Seattle, but my core lineup build that day was an Aaron Rodgers stack vs the Vikings in which I failed to run it back with Adam Theilen. It was a big day none the less to grab Rodgers vs what was at the time a perceived tough spot vs the Vikings but I went there after news came early Saturday morning that the Vikings flight had been delayed into Green Bay and they were scrambling to actually get to the stadium.
The point here is that we really don’t have a ton of good looking options, so this is the perfect slate to find a QB and game script where you expect the teams to be motivated and I would think a home team needing a win kinda leans the way to go. Fear not going off the reservation at QB this week with any of these guys …
- Sam Darnold
- Gardner Minshew
- Taysom Hill – Oh you know I’m gonna do it. A blizzard and Saints without any WR vs a bad rush Defense? SIGN ME UP!
BE CAREFUL WITH
Justin Fields, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes …
THE AMBUSH PLAY
NICK CHUBB (DK: $7700, FD: $7900) … New Orleans’ rush defense has been leaking quite a bit and a good amount of the reason is also due to teams trusting that they can run on the Saints rather than attacking a secondary that’s limiting big plays. With the wind thrown in and Cleveland’s strong OL in playl here I would be shocked if Chubb didn’t amass a 100 yard rushing game.
D’ANDRE SWIFT (DK: $5500, FD: $6800) … The weak link on the Panthers defense is their LB group and getting the ball to the RB out of the backfield should be a strategy that teams use vs them, so I would buy low here on Swift at a discount.
ALSO LIKE
SAQUON BARKLEY (DK: $7900, FD: $8500) … The Giants path to the playoffs is through a determined Barkley who the Giants would be a fool to not include in the passing game as well. He has gone over 4 catches in 3 of their last 4. So give me 15 carries for 85 yards and 4 catches for 40 yards and 2 scores this week!
ISIAH PACHECO (DK: $5700, FD: $6700) … While the touchdowns went to McKinnon last week, Pachecho should remain a consistent part of the Chiefs ground game as he has 16 and 15 carries in their last two games. Next up is Seattle who has given up the most yards to RB over the last 3 weeks and a cold as hell game.
MILES SANDERS (DK: $6200, FD: $7100) … Could get a receptions boost with some more check downs and quick passing from Minshew.
CHRISTIAN McCAFFREY (DK: $8800, FD: $9400) … The San Francisco path is clearly to ride CMC. With injuries to Deebo and at QB this is a trend that looks too good to ignore and he’s got 10 days to rest after a 26 rush attempt game in week 15.
DERRICK HENRY (DK: $8600, FD: $9800) … Yeah, he’s not bad, but I continue to stick to my guns that Henry at home is not Henry on the road in terms of usage. The Titans at some point will turn the switch and say screw it, but right now they still have a little breathing room in the AFC South and thus they remain cautious with overworking Henry in a game that they should win with their defense.
THE AMBUSH PLAY
JAMARR CHASE (DK: $8300, FD: $8800) … It is very difficult to justify spending up a lot on WR this week but if there’s one man who should be thrown into that automatic bucket right now it’s Chase. The Patriots have funneled teams to score via the pass on them and when in the red zone Chase is where Burrow is looking almost every time at least once, if not twice.
DARIUS SLAYTON (DK: $5200, FD: $6300), & KENNY GOLLADAY (DK: $3300, FD: $5000) … We need this game to deliver otherwise this weekend is a big snoozefest. I would trust Slayton onver Richie James for volume and Kenny G back in the NFC North is almost for sure going to be a holiday treat with a touchdown.
ALSO LIKE
ADAM THIELEN (DK: $5300, FD: $6600) … Some comments were made this week in regards to Justin Jefferson taking too many ‘unncessary’ shots. They should only need to go full yolo to Jefferson when down by 35 points from here on out, so with the emergence of KJ Osborn continuing to draw coverage away and the Giants struggling vs the pass in recent weeks I see passing opportunities opening up for Theilen to shine.
TERRY McLAURIN (DK: $6200, FD: $7000) … Price is good on Terry and the Commanders probably lean heavily on the passing game which has been a little soft in shutting down WR1 from having no catches. Terry obviously should continue to be peppered with targets.
MICHAEL GALLUP (DK: $4200, FD: $5700) … Right back to the Gallup well this week for me.
DRAKE LONDON (DK: $4800, FD: $6400) … This is a classic case of take what you can get in DFS. In Ridder’s first start he threw to London 11 times and while the weather here won’t be ideal for offense we’re still assuming Atlanta decides to run offensive plays, right? Okay, well, Baltimore can’t guard shit so throw it to London 11 more times and he’ll reach 15 fpts on DraftKings for sure.
DK METCALF
AJ BROWN
SLEEPER VALUE
Shi Smith (CAR)
Phillip Dorsett (HOU)
THE AMBUSH PLAY
TRAVIS KELCE (DK: $8000, FD: $8600) … It might be cold, but that just furthers the question of the week. Who the hell is going to feel like tackling Kelce when he is rumbling through the cold in Arrowhead? Seattle is statistically terrible vs TE and this just smells like a Kelce 3 TD game that we have been waiting for. One of them is a rushing TD by the way…
ALSO LIKE
AUSTIN HOOPER (DK: $3100, FD: $4800) … Much like the Seahawks, the Texans are a terrible team vs TE and they managed to get by last week against Kelce, but they probably are going to suffer the good Tannehill fate this week and he sure as hell isn’t throwing to a WR, so look for Hooper as a leverage pivot off the trendy Chig Okonkwo.
THE AMBUSH PLAY
TITANS … I see a couple turnovers and high sack game coming for the Titans this week. They need to win.
ALSO LIKE
RAVENS … Ridder isn’t good (not yet atleast). He’ll make mistakes.
EAGLES … What a bait job by DraftKings here. For $2200 a defense which has no issues coming into this game should be able to get a few sacks and a high % of a turnover too.
BROWNS … Could be limited because the Saints wont throw the ball more than 5 times.
AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS
This slate blows. This whole weekend for NFL blows. But make the most of it by ensuring that you have good players in need to win spots sprinkled into the lineup and not just punting random guys based off what the data shows. This is the best week of the year to simply trust your gut on plays.
CORE BUILD
Daniel Jones
Nick Chubb
Travis Kelce
BETTING CARD
Browns ML
Titans ML