Overview
The NASCAR season officially kicks off in the Cup Series with the Daytona 500, America’s race and the biggest spectacle of the NASCAR season. As we know anytime the cars hit Daytona, or really any superspeedway, there is a great deal of unpredictability and virtually anyone has a chance to win. The drivers will go 200 laps, 500 miles on Sunday afternoon. Daytona is a 2.5-mile tri-oval that is heavily banked. The asphalt track banks 31 degrees in the turns and 18 degrees in the tri-oval and if you’ve ever had the pleasure of walking on the track you’d know that it is quite a climb up from the infield to the wall surrounding the track. The major factor or factors we have to deal with at Daytona is “the big one(s)”. The big one is a massive wreck that typically takes out anywhere from a quarter to one-third of the field. A wreck like this typically happens once, if not multiple times due to the style of racing required to run on a superspeedway, commonly known as pack racing. When cars are racing at a superspeedway in order to get around the track as quickly as possible we’ll see one, two, and sometimes even three lines form with cars drafting one another mere inches away from each other. If a car gets out of the draft they lose momentum and quickly lose positions on the track. The big one happens when a driver tries to make a move, gets too aggressive, or simply loses control of the car pushing 200 miles per hour. When a bunch of cars are so close to one another in most cases that one or two cars that have the mishap will take out the majority of cars around them.
Strategy
The most basic, elementary strategy when rostering drivers at Daytona is finding adequate or even just somewhat adequate drivers in decent equipment that are starting in the back, even more so than we would normally want to do searching for PD points. Typically these crashes I touched on will take out multiple cars that are front-running. Hypothetically this will give the drivers towards the back time to adjust and avoid the mayhem on the way by. This is often the type of trend we see in these races. When building lineups you might end up seeing a couple or even a few drivers that are head-scratchers and a hefty amount of salary left over. Don’t worry about those two situations because of the propensity of these races to be chaotic. The unpredictability of Daytona is what makes you hang onto the edge of your seat until the very end.
Most comparable tracks: Talladega Superspeedway (only difference is how much wider it is than Daytona)
*Note: all pricing is DraftKings focused
Drivers to Target
Kyle Busch ($9,600, Starting 36th)
After having to go to a backup car, Busch will start 36th and should be one of the more popular drivers on Sunday. Busch makes the move to RCR this season after over a decade with Joe Gibbs Racing and is determined to prove that he still is a top echelon driver. In 35 career starts at Daytona, Busch has one win, eight top five’s, and 11 top 10’s.
Austin Dillon ($8,000, Starting 27th)
2014 Daytona 500 winner Austin Dillon has won twice on the famed track of Daytona, most recently last season in August at the Coke Zero 400. Overall in 19 races at Daytona, Dillon has nine top 10’s and starting back at 27th, there is plenty of room for place differential.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,900, Starting 31st)
Stenhouse, who won the 500 in 2020 is one of the better Superspeedway racers mainly due to his aggressive nature. Despite wrecking out in each of his last two races at Daytona, he still has an average finish of 20th at Daytona in 21 starts.
Also consider:
Chase Briscoe ($7,400, Starts 30th)
- Briscoe has four career starts at Daytona in the Cup Series including a third-place finish at the 500 last year. He’ll start 30th and should be one of the more popular drivers to roster.
Ty Gibbs ($5,800), Starts 33rd)
- After winning the XFINITY Series Championship last season, Gibbs takes a step into the Cup Series full-time and will start 33rd.
Others:
Jimmie Johnson ($7,700, Starting 39th)
Tyler Reddick ($9,000, Starting 26th)
Denny Hamlin ($10,300, Starting 18th)
Justin Haley ($5,600, Starting 28th)
Speedy Notes
Driver(s) I have most exposure to: Denny Hamlin
Driver I’m fading that worries me: None
Driver(s) I have zero interest in: Anyone starting from the 4th through 14th positions