Welcome to the 2023 NCAA Tournament. No better time of year right now than now to sit on your ass and follow along with some college basketball action, so let’s jump right to it.
Top Ten Bracket Thoughts
- You need to pick the winner and it shouldn’t be the #1 popular choice this year.
- But it does not need to be the 12th or 13th or 14th most popular pick among the public. Be contrarian, but not stupid.
- You can’t win your bracket after the first round, but you can lose it after the second round.
- The bracket is made up of 16 mini brackets of 4. Look at 1vs16 and 8vs9 as it’s own bracket.
- If you can correctly pick the winner of 12 of those 16 brackets you will be in contention
- Ask yourself if a team can win the region before you advance them to the sweet 16.
- If the answer is no, can anyone else win that mini quadrant?
- If the answer is yes, which team is more popular in your pool? Take the contrarian one when you think that neither team is likely to advance past the sweet 16.
- Identify which conferences you support and weigh your picks heavily on those conferences.
- Identify which conferences or style of play you do feel are overvalued and fade those teams.
The best conference this year was
Big 12 – This conference is just loaded this year, but buyer beware on pushing them all through, they can be upset.
Conferences I think are undervalued by the public
Mountain West – The conference which everyone wanted to hate on is strong
ACC – The teams who are here are really good and each have the profile of a team who can go far in the tournament.
Conferences I think are overvalued by the public
Big Ten – Trash. Straight trash. I think there is still perception that the media has a bias towards the Big East and ACC but they really have a bias towards the Big Ten.
Pac 12 – Just four teams in this year from the Pac-12, and Arizona/UCLA to me are dangerously on that upset line that nobody is talking about. Avoid riding a team here deep.
South Bracket
Teams that I believe can win this region: Alabama (1)
I am 100% on the Alabama train here more so because of the draw that they get out of this region than thinking that they are an unbeatable train. They’ve got the best ‘NBA’ talent in Brandon Miller, but also the worst off the court distraction. They’ll get through the first weekend without a major hurdle as the MD/WV game winner won’t be winning two in a row and then I think there is a high probability of them facing 12 seeded Charleston or 13 seeded Furman in the sweet 16. Alabama had the best road win of anyone this season winning at Houston and winning in a convincing fashion late in the game.
Low seeds who are fragile: Baylor (3), Virginia (4)
This Baylor team does not defend like recent years teams and Virginia is depleted without Ben Vander Plas.
High seeds who are dangerous: Utah State (10), NC State (11), Charleston (12), Furman (13)
All four of these teams are ones that I am taking in the opening round on my main bracket. Of them Utah State and NC State are the two I am most confident in because Utah State is a good ‘team’ and NC State has two elite level guards who can take over in the tournament, they are a legit Elite 8 team.
Charleston is gonna give San Diego State a run in the opening round, but San Diego State wins a close game if its a nail biter. Meanwhile Furman over UVA is one of my upset calls
Hardest potential matchups to project: WVU/MD (Biggest toss up of day 1/2), Missouri/Utah State
Sweet 16 Picks: Alabama, San Diego State, NC State, Arizona
Region Winner: Alabama
Sleeper Team: NC State
East Bracket
Teams that I believe can win this region: Marquette (2), Kansas St (3), Duke (5)
- Marquette is good enough to win 2 games in a row any weekend, but their potential sweet 16 draw with Kansas State is where I have them going out.
- I am more nervous with Kansas State sleeping in their first game than most other spots because once Nowell and Johnson get going they’ll make some big noise. They’re legit final 4 contender.
- Duke is playing better than almost everyone right now and has a now veteran PG in Jeremy Roach who as long as he stays healthy is going to keep them in every game.
Low seeds who are fragile: Purdue (1), Tennessee (4), Kentucky (6)
High seeds who are dangerous: Memphis (8), Florida Atlantic (9)
We all saw Purdue struggle in the Big Ten tournament with pressure defense and while everyone’s gonna be scared of them now, the reality is they have been a fraud top team most of the season. You do not win in the NCAA with your offense going through a big man, but you can win in the NCAA with a big man who is a dominant defender (see Marcus Camby, Anthony Davis). Unfortunately for Purdue, Edey is not that defender and so we 100% should just go ahead and knock them out in the second round because even if they make it to the S16 they’ll be ousted very quickly by Duke or Tennessee.
Hardest potential matchups to project: Memphis/FAU, Kansas St potentially vs Marquette
Sweet 16 Picks: FAU, Duke, Kansas St, Marquette
Region Winner: Kansas State
Sleeper Team: Kansas State
Midwest Bracket
Teams that I believe can win this region: Houston (1), Miami (5), Texas (2)
- This is my nightmare as two of my top teams Houston and Miami are gonna face off in the Sweet 16. I have been riding Miami all season long and the one irony here in this match-up is that both teams have a big injury that came up during their conference tournaments. Heart says Miami, gut says Houston.
- Texas has the roster talent (and also an injury to monitor) to make it to the final 4.
Low seeds who are fragile: Indiana (4), Iowa St (6), Xavier (3)
- Indiana doesn’t have the guards
- Iowa State may have figured things out late but I am not trusting them
- It’s like they took all the injuries and put them together with Xavier here (no Freemantle hurts them in a long run)
High seeds who are dangerous: Kent State (13), Winner of Mississippi State/Pittsburgh, Penn State
I’m really curious to see if Pittsburgh can knock off Mississippi State and they would be a strong first four candidate to get hot and make noise into the second weekend. They would steamroll Xavier should they meet up. Penn State is sneaky and is proving that they’ll hang around with anyone. They live and die with the three though so don’t take them too far.
Hardest potential matchups to project: Houston/Miami, Texas A&M/Penn State/Texas grouping…
Sweet 16 Picks: Houston, Miami, Pittsburgh, Texas
Region Winner: Houston/Miami winner – I will go with Houston.
Sleeper Team: None
West Bracket
Teams that I believe can win this region: Kansas (1), Gonzaga (3), TCU (6)
- We assume Bill Self will not only be back but healthy for the tournament on the sidelines, this puts Kansas and Gonzaga clearly ahead of everyone else in my mind and while one could get knocked off early we won’t see both get knocked off most likely.
- Somewhere though there is a cindarella lurking & so if you want a sleeper it HAS to be someone sneaking up on one of those two schools in the second round which puts a dangerous TCU team on my radar. I believe in the Big 12, so why not pick an alt Big 12 school here.
Low seeds who are fragile: UCLA (2), UCONN (4)
- Don’t trust either coach.
High seeds who are dangerous: Northwestern (7), Arkansas (8), Boise State (10), Nevada (11*), VCU (12), UNC Asheville (15)
Here is a big reason why I can comfortably lock in Kansas/Gonzaga. We have a lot of potential for upsets in this bracket in the first round
Hardest potential matchups to project: Kansas potentially vs Gonzaga
Sweet 16 Picks: Kansas, UConn, Gonzaga, Northwestern
Region Winner: Gonzaga
Sleeper Team: Northwestern
FIRST ROUND HOT TAKES
- The 13’s are the 12’s and the 12’s are the 13’s…. This means more 13’s win than 12’s this year.
- Welcome to the Overtime round, starting with WV/Maryland we’re gonna see 7 games go to Overtime on Thursday/Friday
Your best 13+ sleeper upset picks … Again, use these against teams who are fragile
- #13 Furman over Virginia … UVA is not a go deep team, might as well knock them out early
- #14 UCSB over Baylor
- #13 Louisiana over Tennessee
- #13 Kent State over Indiana
- #15 UNC Asheville over UCLA
FINAL FOUR
Alabama
Kansas State
Houston
Gonzaga
Championship game: Gonzaga over Alabama 76-69
MOP: Drew Timme