SLATE NOTES
There are some more ‘early’ games today, and more of the 6:40 start times which I hope go away next season with faster games, but I doubt it. This leaves us with an 11 game MAIN slate on both DK & FD today and we are batting 1.000 on the season with site synchronicity. Tomorrow, however, will be the first true exam for the sites to figure out what to do with a slate that has a 12:35 game, six in the 1pm window, three in the 2pm window, two mid afternoon west coast games and the Jays and Royals at 7pm. But that is for tomorrow and so you can plan your mid week afternoon lunch plans when you wake up tomorrow.
On to today, our first Tuesday of the MLB season and we look to see if more odd home run results happen like David Dahl and Ha-seong Kim going back to back to ruin the 4 leg dogs parlay. Or Seth Brown off Emmanuel Clase in Oakland on an April night, or how about this Jason Heyward guy for the Dodgers? What in the world is going on? It’s as if lefties are all homering now that the shift is gone, which makes zero sense unless pitchers were just approaching lefties entirely differently knowing they had the shift on and now they pitch them normal? Very weird, but also very small sample size…
WEATHER
Very good ‘warm’ weather tonight for April 4th. Two of the three games with rain are in domes that will likely be closed (Milwaukee, Texas) and the third is in St. Louis but my early read is they have a good window to get the game in so long as the early rain doesn’t drench the field too much, same with Kauffman Stadium…
Rain Concerns
- Braves at Cardinals
- Blue Jays at Royals
Tonight’s heavy wind game is in Kauffman Stadium – 22 mph winds out to LF, which also has a really good Dewpoint tonight.
Max Scherzer (DK: $10,800, FD: $10,800)
Max is ready, Max is fine. Max is going to get past Yelich and then ride his way to a 7+ strikeout performance tonight. Congrats to Milwaukee on hitting some dingers yesterday, they’ll be lucky to post a 2 spot today.
Shane Bieber (DK: $10,500)
Generally early in the season we don’t always go up and pay double 10k pitchers, but tonight feels like a solid day to just take a couple 20’s and move on. The pay up otptions after Max include Bieber, Valdez, Urias and Castillo. I just don’t see another 20 run night from the Coliseum in Oakland, nor do I see the Guardians defense being as bad as it was last night. 6 innings of clean for Shane will get it done here.
Josh Fleming (DK: $6,100)
Remove the player and remove the opponent for a moment. Just imagine that I told you there was a $6,100 SP tonight who was going to likely go 5 innings, give up a solo HR to the #2 hitter in the bottom of the first and finish with 4+ strikeouts. Would you consider it? I think you have too. The temp and dewpoint conditions in Nats Park look good based on the ’22 baseballs, but nothing thus far has carried over in that regard, so I’ll just go with a mediocre SP against a horrible lineup at a cheap price.
Sleeper Pick
Roansy Contreras (DK: $6,900, FD: $8,400)
My first true ‘sleeper’ pick. Boston is for the most part a veteran lineup and veterans don’t like seeing new pitchers. Fenway’s been playing like Fenway in the summer but the wind is blowing in and it’s a much chillier New England type evening today. Throw on top of that Contreras with a strong slider to get some whiffs (42% in 2022) and I like the best young Pirates P to post a 5 inning, 6+ strikeout game. He’s a fantastic pivot off Fleming.
METS
Starling Marte, Pete Alonso, Tommy Pham, Eduardo Escobar
Is it too early in the season to invoke the go opposite after a blowout rule? Well, we’re gonna test it and what better way to test it than with the Mets vs Wade Miley who is back with the Brewers – a team he had success with – but isn’t someone at this stage in his career I fear.
PHILLIES
Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Alec Bohm, Darick Hall
Hey Philly. Welcome to the 2023 season, it might be good for you to get a win before going back home ya think? Today would probably be the time to do it against Domingo German
BLUE JAYS
Vlad Guerrero, Alejandro Kirk, Matt Chapman
That wind potential in Kauffman stadium with Bubic on the bump is very hard to ignore.
CATCHER
Tons of power behind the dish tonight. I could even go further and justify JT Realmuto and Sean Murphy here as well.
- Danny Jansen / Alejandro Kirk … Both are fine, Jansen stands out unusually for him today in the matchup with Bubic and is cheaper.
- Salvador Perez
- Eric Haase
FIRST BASE
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr
- Pete Alonso
- Darick Hall
SECOND BASE
Note: I don’t like him today, but Mookie Betts now has 2B on DraftKings and should get it soon on FD too… This is a good spot to spend down today.
- Brandon Lowe
- David Hensley
- DJ LeMahieu
THIRD BASE
- Eduardo Escobar … Ignore the low spot in the order, gotta have him in a Mets stack, he’s the one who turns the lineup over if they score 8+
- Alec Bohm
- Matt Chapman
SHORTSTOP
- Trea Turner
- Bo Bichette
- Bobby Witt Jr
- Oneil Cruz
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Sir Thomas Pham
- Kyle Tucker
- George Springer
- Kyle Schwarber
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Tyler O’Neill
- Starling Marte
- Nick Castellanos
- Joey Meneses (OF on DK)
OUTFIELD – Value
- Jordan Walker
- Harold Ramirez
- Whit Merrifield
- Kyle Schwarber – OF – Phillies – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Pete Alonso – 1B – Mets
- Tyler O’Neill – OF – Cardinals
- Salvador Perez – C – Royals
- Brandon Lowe – 2B – Rays
- Matt Chapman – 3B – Blue Jays
- Trea Turner – SS – Phillies
- Joey Meneses – 1B/OF – Nationals
- BONUS ….. Jordan Walker – OF – Cardinals – First Major League HR
FAVORITE BET(s)
- Phillies ML (+134)
- Phillies/Yankees o8.5
- Rockies/Dodgers u7.5
Dogs … PARLAY(s) OF THE DAY
What an EPIC bad beat on the 4 legger last night…
- PHI + DET + WSH
TOP PROP(s) OF THE DAY
Heavy juice on both of these, so parlay them together
- Roansy Contreras o3.5 strikeouts
- Kyle Gibson o3.5 strikeouts (Shop around, much better odds on FD) … He should be 4.5 or 5.5 honestly, you will pay some heavy juice here but with a great umpire (best on the slate it looks like) he should hit this number.