Tuesday – May 9th – Dongers Club
Bigger ten game slate, but lots of AWESOME games that are going to be in that 6pm window today which we will miss out on unfortunately. Including Jays at Phillies and Mets at Cincinnati. If you wanna dabble there, load up on the Mets.
WEATHER
Nearing 90 degrees in Kauffman Stadium which makes sense given how hot the Royals offense has been in terms of all the underlying statcast metrics. Now they are finally putting the runs together as well.
The only game tonight with some rain concerns is Padres at Twins, and we’re most definitely NOT using pitchers in that game so a little delay won’t bother us one bit.
Well, well, well. Logan Webb is pitching in a night game today, what in the world is going on here? I can’t wait for the 6PM EST notification that he has been scratched just to push him back to tomorrow’s day game.
SHOHEI OHTANI
One pitcher that Houston hasn’t figured out is Mr. Ohtani. Yes, I am still loading up on Kyle Tucker on his annual destruction of Anaheim tour but the big question is can Ohtani reach 10K today vs Houston at home. The answer to me is, yes. His 34% strikeout rate vs RHH is going to come in handy today and should get the job done vs a team often perceived as not a strikeout team but has been middle of the pack of late.
Don’t be shocked though if he winds up in a 1-0 duel with Framber Valdez here too. Can’t stack both of them together but I most definitely see the pitchers dominating in Anaheim today.
FRAMBER VALDEZ
I looked long and hard at the 2nd tier of pitchers tonight to find a cheaper pivot off Ohtani and the answer is right in front of our face. It’s Framber in the same spot. If you wanna pivot off Ohtani, stay in the same game for a little leverage boost and trust that we get a lot of good ole ground ball innings where Framber pitches 8+ and finishes with a solid strikeout game. The Angels haven’t been as bad vs LHP in terms of strikeouts this year though so that could limit his ceiling.
GEORGE KIRBY
Fine, I’ll bite here. Kirby loves to just pound the zone and isn’t going to wal many batters. The Rangers as a lineup have an 18.4% whiff rate on pitches in the zone this season with Adolis & Jung being the worst offenders here. Kirby might look suspect for getting a high strikeout game with just a 15% rate vs RHH on the season but he’ll see 5+ lefties today and should go 7+ innings with the way he keeps his PC managable.
BRANDON PFAADT
I wish that Pfaadt was more than $4,500 on DraftKings. He should gain some good ownership to pair with Ohtani (or Framber) and I don’t hate the idea, but I also do not expect the young kid to pitch phenomenal out of the gate.
He is a long term front of the rotation guy for Arizona and the next Logan Gilbert — like Gilbert he is tall, so there will be early growing pains. But this is very cheap and you can probably get away with it on DK as an SP2. Much better than Flaherty, good lord.
Other pitching thoughts …
- Jack Flaherty: You do not go from giving up 10 ER to dominating in your next start. I don’t care how favorable the conditions are for pitching in Wrigley Field, it’s just not something to bank your money on today. At most he gives you a 10-12 on DraftKings. Schmidt can do that (and more) as well.
- Nick Pivetta and Charlie Morton has all the makings of somehow these two get to the 5th inning and it’s a 0-0 game where both have 4 strikeouts and a pitch count which indicates they’ll be able to go 7+ innings. And then all of the sudden one of them (definitely Morton) gives up a lead off double, followed by a walk and then finds himself at a 30 pitch inning with 1 run in and nobody out. The implosion risk for both guys is terrifying for me, but at the same time, the cruising risk also terrifies me for hitters here where it winds up being some douchebag like Triston Casas or Emmanuel Valdez (he’s actually kinda good IMO) that you have to own for Boston.
SAN DIEGO PADRES
Bogaerts, Tatis, Soto, Grisham
Here’s the bad. They are coming off a Dodger series, so that is a narrative I usually would avoid them in but they had a day off in between so that’s good. The other bad is potential rain delay, but generally that doesn’t hurt the hitting at all and if it does rain then that just furthers the belief of mine that Louie Varland’s rookie ass is gonna be missin and you know who’s gonna find him? Some old man fishin.
Lord help the Twins if the Padres let Nellie start too.
ROYALS
Maikel Garcia, Salvador Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino
The Royals have finally managed to find a way to score some runs to back up all the underlying positive statcast metrics that they have been posting. Since April 22nd the royals rank 4th in runs, 10th in wRC+, 6th in AVG, 5th in OBP, 5th in SLG and 14th in K%. The stats are even better since May 1st and if you were to break down their splits vs a SP they have seen before versrus one the organization hasn’t it’s even more drastic.
Today they’ll draw Lucas Giolito, a SP they definitely have plenty of data on and should be able to continue to have some solid run producing innings against.
Other Spots to pique the interest
- White Sox
- Brewers/Dodgers
CATCHER
Continues to feel like we have some narratives here this week with C vs P they caught before. Today we have Christian Vazquez with his mighty 9 games caught of Wacha last year.
- Will Smith
- Salvador Perez
- Nick Fortes … If you need a punt because you didn’t go cheap Pfaadt.
FIRST BASE
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Rowdy Tellez … Can go Freeman in the same game as well, but Tellez hits well at home and crushed one to deep CF last night
- Ryan Noda
- Matt Carpenter
SECOND BASE
- Ozzie Albies
- Brice Turang
- Emmanuel Valdez
THIRD BASE
- Manny Machado
- Maikel Garcia
- Eugenio Suarez
SHORTSTOP
- Xander Bogaerts
- Chris Taylor
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Juan Soto
- Fernando Tatis Jr
- Luis Robert Jr
- Jesse Winker
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Kyle Tucker
- Mookie Betts
- Cody Bellinger
OUTFIELD – Value
- JJ Bleday
- Trent Grisham
- Mitch Haniger
- Xander Bogaerts – SS – Padres – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Jesse Winker – OF – Brewers
- Vinnie Pasquantino – 1B – Royals
- Emmanuel Valdez – 2B – Red Sox
- Juan Soto – OF – Padres
- Manny Machado – 3B – Padres
- Will Smith – C – Dodgers
- JJ Bleday – OF – Athletics
- BONUS ……………….. Cody Bellinger – OF – Cubs
TODAY’S TOP BET(s)
Louie Varland under 4.5 strikeouts
Red Sox/Braves under 9.5