MLB · May 14, 2023

Sunday Dongers Club, May 14th (Afternoon/SD)

Sunday Afternoon & Showdown slate thoughts

Rangers (Heaney) vs Athletics (Rucinski)

Giants (Webb) vs Diamondbacks (Pfaadt)

Padres (Weathers) vs Gonsolin (Dodgers)

 

Showdown

Cardinals (Mikolas) vs Red Sox (Kluber)

WEATHER

Roof closed in Arizona, great weather in OAK/LA.

 

Afternoon Slate

Lookie here, Logan Webb finishes off the week with a day game, but in the roof close environment of Arizona it might feel like a night game for him.  That’s the top spot for me to trust pitching today, and I would think Pfaadt will have a good start for Arizona, bringing this one up as the top SP gamestack on a short 3 game slate.

The wild card for me on this slate is Andrew Heaney if he can roll out a 30% K rate today he’ll score well at $8800 on DraftKings, but I have no desire to go there personally.

As for Tony Gonsolin, who the model will like based off mostly his 2022 data, I would avoid going there just yet as well.

  1. Logan Webb (SF)
  2. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI)

 

Showdown

There’s absolutely nothing about Mikolas vs Boston and Kluber vs the Cardinals which we really want to roll with, but of the two Kluber should have the better chance of being used as a UTIL/FLEX.  Neither should be your captain on DraftKings.

 

Afternoon Slate

We go back to a day game in Oakland for our top exposure today offensively.  Texas is a good team to stack even with Corey Seager remaining out.  Semien-Garcia cost you a good amount, but the upside Jung, Lowe, Heim bring for their price makes it a solid build.

  1. Rangers
  2. Dodgers … If Ryan Weathers would pitch more than 2 IP then LAD wouldn’t be #2.  But with good weather here they should be on radar given how well most of their lineup is hitting right now.
  3. Athletics … 9 RHH vs Heaney today, that’ll do well enough
  4. Padres

 

Showdown Top Bats

  1. Rafael Devers – MVP/Captain Pick
  2. Paul Goldschmidt
  3. Nolan Arenado
  4. Masataka Yoshida

 

Best Showdown Value

  1. Justin Turner
  2. Triston Casas
  3. Lars Nootbar

 

CATCHER

  1. Will Smith … +500 xSLG vs LHP
  2. Jonah Heim

 

FIRST BASE

  1. Nate Lowe
  2. Jesus Aguilar

 

SECOND BASE

  1. Marcus Semien … Can save $ with Brad Miller here too
  2. Jake Cronenworth

 

THIRD BASE

  1. Manny Machado
  2. Max Muncy
  3. Josh Jung

 

SHORTSTOP

Only Thairo Estrada is likely to hit near the top of the order among all SS today.  It’s truly a blind luck position where you hope you can avoid some 30% guy having a huge game.

Rumor is Brandon Crawford was going to be back, but if not, I trust Schmitt once again for the Giants.  Kid has been raking since his debut.

  1. Ezequiel Duran
  2. “Michael” Casey Schmitt

 

OUTFIELD

  1. Adolis Garcia
  2. Mookie Betts
  3. Juan Soto
  4. Joc Pederson

 

VALUE …

  1. Robbie Grossman
  2. Brent Rooker

 

 

Adolis Garcia – Afternoon Chairman

Rafael Devers – Showdown Chairman

 

TODAY’S TOP BET(s)

Rangers + Dodgers ML Parlay

Giants/Diamondbacks under 8.5

Boston ML

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