The older I get in life the more old man grumpy I get, I admit it. However, there are still a handful of days each year where it’s darned near impossible to be grumpy. The day after Thanksgiving, the first Friday of March Madness, whenever the Falcons have a 28-3 lead and the Friday before Memorial Day weekend.
I don’t care what is going on in your life, today is a good day my friends. Every MLB team is playing as they should be and the Cubs are at home this afternoon which is a great way to kick off the 3 day holiday weekend full of doing whatever the hell you want to do.
I mean, if you wanna watch Nationals and Royals this weekend at your local watering hole because the Nationals are blacked out on MLB.tv then hey, go right ahead, no judgement here! Can’t be as bad as listening to the Royals on the radio while boating around on a lake on the 4th of July, who the hell would do that…
*** This is a cry for help, why am I going to watch Royals/Nats at a bar on Memorial Day weekend??? ***
WEATHER
Next week it is going to get insanely hot. This weekend is very comfortable and nice in most places and we have just one rain concern today.
Mets at Rockies – Oh, you didn’t know the Mets were at the Rockies this weekend? Hah, yeah, well, sorry, you opened the article and thus you can’t un-register those contests now…
Other notables …
Wind blowing out in Atlanta
Wind blowing IN at Cleveland
Roof closed in Arizona
There’s a good amount of viable options to filter through today and unless people are smoking some heavy crack I don’t imagine we have bad chalk on pitching like we did earlier this week — although there is one $4,000 arm going which I’ll cover in a second.
TOP ARM
George Kirby (DK: $9300, FD: $10.6k)
Not many pitchers are rolling better than Kirby right now. The Pirates aren’t among the top teams in whiffs but Kirby has also been so good at limiting damage from lefties which is the CORE of the Pirates lineup right now too that I don’t see him having any type of blow up or “i regret using him” issues today.
SP2 OPTIONS
Joe Musgrove (DK: $7500, FD: $7500)
Certain pitchers fit the profile of someone who I trust in a ‘spotlight’ game and this is no doubt a spotlight game and one I trust Musgrove to get through 6 IP for the first time this season. His last two starts have allowed him to go 97 on the PC so no risk there and if you remove his two starts vs the Dodgers he hasn’t had any walk issues either. 6 strikeouts is likely his ceiling unless the Yanks are chasing outside of the zone a lot. But we’re getting him at a nice discount here too.
Hunter Brown (DK: $9900, FD: $10.3k)
Some people took the bait on my tweet the other day about having a model which is 41-10 on the season (now 42-10), and while it was true, it was also making fun of Oakland and how they just do not win. As long as your command isn’t horrible you won’t find much of an issue using a SP at Oakland in a night game this year. Brown did just face the Athletics last weekend going 6 innings, 5 hits and 0 walks. Small help to Oakland seeing him twice in a row but it’s extremely small.
Other Pitching Notes …
- Kevin Gausman is grading almost identical to Hunter Brown today. He faces a much better team, but is also more expensive, however the ceiling is higher than anyone else in my mind. I’d pair him with Musgrove if you do use him on DraftKings to basically have him as a pivot off Brown.
- Reid Detmers has two MAJOR red flag bats to get through in Soler & Cooper, but beyond that he should still post a high K% game. I do not mind him at all.
- Have fun with Alex Wood against a lineup that sucks vs LHP. It’s a trap.
- Watch Jordan Lyles pitch well today out of nowhere, please lord do not use him though.
Cheap Pitcher Rant …
The cheap arm today is … Randy Vazquez! Thank you DFS lords for giving us a Yankee “prospect” making his debut for $4,000. I use the term prospect in MAJOR air quotes here and I am once again reminding you that we do not use pitchers making their debut no matter what their price is.
A: There are 12 games on this slate, tons of good options to get you 20+ DK fpts, so no, getting a 10 from a guy for $4,000 isn’t good “Value” to allow you to “pay up for bats” elsewhere. Again, there are 12 games, I don’t need to just play $5500 bats in every position and no Coors Field isn’t an automatic 20 run spot today.
B: I don’t see how we can claim “stats” and “splits” on players and ignore the fact that rookies making their debut always have higher walk rates and much higher BLOW UP potential to start games. This isn’t the Yankees promoting someone they have long planned to build around, this is someone who just magically put it together in the minors and now is being rushed up. I 10000% assure you there will be touts on the radio or livestreams or elsewhere today who are saying “Yankees top prospect” and “Kid has electric stuff”. They are full of shit. They’ve likely never heard of the kid before last night because DFS touts who also happen to write about Baseball don’t properly follow minor leaguers – and you won’t remember his name come August when he’s in the Yankee bullpen or back down in AAA… Yes, he relies on a heavy breaking pitch and yes the Padres aren’t the best in that split, but you don’t need to be cute here.
TOP STACK
BLUE JAYS (Springer, Bichette, Jansen)
RH heavy lineup going into Target field with good weather. The Jays offense is doing just fine, it’s their SP which has gone to shit, but getting them outside of the AL East for a little bit is going to really shine the light on the fact that this is still an ELITE team who is going to destroy non AL East teams.
SECONDARY STACKS
RANGERS (N.Lowe, Seager, Heim)
Obviously the wall in left is gonna be a problem for Adolis, Jung and Semien to hit homers all weekend long, but Lowe and Seager are DEFINITELY going yard this weekend in Baltimore and Grayson Rodriguez isn’t pitching a shutout here in his first year, he isn’t that guy yet.
THE PHINATIC vs BLOOPER, ROUND 2
Trea Turner / Harper … Ronnie Acuna / Olson
Outside of some Sunday afternoon games at home Taijuan Walker remains a below average pitcher with no chance getting a fastball past the Braves lineup today. Lord help him if he tries first AB vs Acuna.
METS (Marte, Alvarez, Baty)
Even with a sprinkle or two in the air, there’s no reason to ignore a sprinkle or two of Mets tonight in Coors Field. Some nice pricing remains on Baty, Marte and Alvarez. Starling Marte is the one I have the most interest in here.
CATCHER
- Danny Jansen
- Salvador Perez
- Francisco Alvarez
FIRST BASE
- Nathaniel Lowe
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr
- Matt Olson
SECOND BASE
- Jake Cronenworth … Fellow 2B elig Rougned Odor has gotten hot of late and is much cheaper and in NY could certainly benefit down that RF line, but Jake at the top of the order should have the better “explode” game.
- Jeff McNeil
- Matt Duffy
THIRD BASE
- Brian Anderson
- Rafael Devers
- Gunnar Henderson
- Matt Chapman
SHORTSTOP
I would give each of these guys a big fat A+ rating tonight.
- Beaux Bichette
- Corey Seager
- Trea Turner
- Bobby Witt Jr
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- George Springer
- Fernando Tatis Jr
- Ronald Acuna Jr
- Lars Nootbar
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Starling Marte
- Brandon Nimmo
OUTFIELD – Value
- Jarren Duran
- Eddie Olivares
- Austin Hays
- George Springer – OF – Toronto Blue Jays – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Nate Lowe – 1B – Rangers
- Lars Nootbar – OF – Cardinals
- Franciso Alvarez – C – Mets
- Ronald Acuna Jr – OF – Braves
- Bobby Witt Jr – SS – Royals
- Jake Cronenworth – 2B – Padres
- Matt Chapman – 3B – Blue Jays
- BONUS …………………….. Jarren Duran – OF – Red Sox
TODAY’S TOP BET(s)
Underdogs / ML
- Phillies +130
- Cardinals +100
Totals
- Texas / Baltimore over 8.5
- Phillies / Braves over 10
- Houston / Oakland under 8.5
Parlay
- Phillies ML + Rangers ML + Rockies ML + Pirates ML