Sunday – 8 main slate games to enjoy. No afternoon article later today, but will cover the full Memorial Day slate of games in a big way on Monday.
WEATHER
No issues, all games will play.
- 10+ MPH winds blowing IN at Camden Yards
- Minnesota has the best hitting weather boost once again, which is just weird
TOP ARM
The premier game today in terms of pitching is Darvish (9700) vs Cole (11500) and as you can tell the pricing on both could sway ownership somewhat.
Darvish isn’t throwing 100 pitches, Cole will probably throw 110, but Cole needs to throw around 105-110 and get 8 strikeouts against the Padres — something he should do, pending what lineup they decide to roll out today — to justify his usage.
San Diego comes in with Tatis and Soto both hitting well, but the key bat here is Bogaerts and if he sits again then Cole is all clear in my mind.
So the answer here is Gerrit Cole, but by a very slim margin over just taking two mid range arms, which to me is not going to kill you so long as we get some offense today.
SP2 OPTIONS
Alex Cobb (DK $8000, FD: $9300)
Cobb is going to be 10%+ or more owned today, he has to be. So he’s really not a sleeper candidate and he has a primary pitch that should murder Milwaukee with his splitter. The Brewers offense usually does well on Sunday’s at home for whatever reason, however their ISO in this split is just .111, they have a 25% strikeout rate over the last 10 days and Cobb delivered with a 31.8 FPTS performance against them on May 6th in San Francisco.
In case you are wondering how teams do facing a SP the second time in a season, the data overall shows about a 5% drop for the pitcher at most, so its there, but not significant and a 25 point performance today will do just fine.
Drew Smyly (DK: $7900, FD: $8700)
This should be the safe/easy one — always famous last words when it comes to fantasy sports. Wind blowing in at Wrigley and while the Reds jumped on Justin Steele on Friday, I still would be fine attacking them with a LHP.
The Reds do hit sinkers well, which they should see a lot of, but Smyly’s allowing RHH to hit just .212 and the Cubs could use some length from their starter today.
SUNDAY SLEEPER(S)
MacKenzie Gore (DK: $7500, FD: $9200)
Gore vs Lynch, the Royals vs a SP they have never seen before. Yeah, I’ll be stacking the SP here and I am not saying you have to load up on Lynch, but you should trust Gore, as the Royals have nobody hitting breaking balls well. I have him as the #1 overall SP PT/$.
Other Pitching Notes …
- Dylan Cease in 2021 or 2022 would have been the #1 SP today. I’m still not touching him in divisional games in 2023. Not until he is cheaper than 8k.
- Jose Berrios back in Target Field is a red flag for me.
- Daniel Lynch is stretched out for the Royals and was pitching decent in the Spring. However the Nats once again are not a team to target with mediocre pitching since they do not offer a K boost. Did you know they have the 4th best NL record since mid April BTW?
- I don’t use Jordan Montgomery in AL games. He might finish with 2 strikeouts today, max.
BLUE JAYS / TWINS
When Bailey Ober gets hit it’s normally by the RH with power. Enter an angry Vlad Guerrero Jr today who was visibly upset after another Toronto Loss on Saturday as our favorite Toronto player to homer, he should get some help from Chapman, Springer and Whit Merrifield as well. With Bo Bichette hitting so well right now too, Vladdy is likely to have a few good RBI opportunities this afternoon on his way to a big day.
The Twins get to face their old friend Jose Berrios, who in 2023 now has his curve defined as a slurve (its a Curveball people) and the Twins know that’s going to be coming. Gimme some walks, some steals and a 3 run homer from Edouard Julien or Alex Kiriloff.
- TOR: Vlad, Chapman, Whit
- MIN: Buxton, Gallo, Kiriloff, Julien
GIANTS
LaMonte Wade JR, JD Davis, Michael Conforto
The Giants should destroy Colin Rea, but they’re the Giants. None the less, every expected hitter is under $3600. Yeah, do we think DraftKings is saying Colin Rea is going to smash them? Fine, chase that if you want, but this team should be the key to everything in DFS today.
CARDINALS
- Top: Gorman, Nootbar
- Secondary: Arenado, Donovan
I did not have the St. Louis Cardinals becoming the new LiC (Lefties in Cleveland) team of 2023, but with Gorman/Nootbar/Donovan we have three guys primed to fall into a HR off Gaddis and the best way to get out Arenado is with a Curveball – which Gaddis is not gonna throw.
On a day where I think finding long innings for offenses is tough I’ll focus on finding some HR power, this is one that should be able to do it the best. Assuming the Cards don’t go “were not playing the getaway game” lineup mode on us.
CATCHER
- William Contreras
- Ryan Jeffers
FIRST BASE
- Vlad Guerrero Jr.
- Nate Lowe
- Rowdy Tellez
SECOND BASE
- Nolan Gorman
- Whit Merrifield
- Luis Garcia
THIRD BASE
- Matt Chapman
- Jose Ramirez
- J.D. Davis
SHORTSTOP
- Amed Rosario
- Bo Bichette
- Corey Seager
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Lars Nootbar
- George Springer
- Joey Gallo
- Mike Yastzemski
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Byron Buxton
- Anthony Santander
- Luis Robert Jr
- Adolis Garcia
OUTFIELD – Value
- Michael Conforto
- Kevin Kiermaier
- Brendan Donovan
- Nolan Gorman – 2B – Cardinals – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Vlad Guerrero Jr – 1B – Toronto Blue Jays
- Amed Rosario – SS – Guardians
- JD Davis – 3B – Giants
- Joey Gallo – OF – Twins
- Mike Yaszstremski – OF – Giants
- Lars Nootbar – OF – Cardinals
- William Contreras – C – Brewers
- BONUS ……………… Nate Lowe – 1B – Rangers
TODAY’S TOP BET(s)
Underdogs / ML
Nothing worth going heavy on the dogs side, but also nobody is really a big time favorite today. Staying away completely on the ML plays today for early, but there is one afternoon play. Will do a parlay for ML spots below…
- Diamondbacks ML -112
Totals
- Blue Jays / Twins over 9.5 (+140, alt line)
- Rangers / Orioles under 8.5 (+110)
Winners YOLO Parlay
- Rangers ML + Guardians ML (Expect them to win it late) + Tigers ML + Nationals ML + Cubs ML + Diamondbacks ML
Player Props
- Alex Cobb over 5.5 strikeouts