It feels like 2019 because Dinelson Lamet and Julio Teheran are pitching tonight. I shit you not people…
The Padres and Marlins game is on FanDuel only, not on DraftKings slate and it is Snell versus Garrett and it should be a snoozefest.
WEATHER
No issues tonight, 4 of the 6 games are in Domes.
TOP ARM
Hunter Brown (DK: $10k, FD: $10.5k)
Brown is the only arm tonight who could come out and just dominate the slate. He got 14 Swinging Strikes vs Minnesota in their first meeting and has been consistent all season long in his rookie year. We do still have some power here on the Twins side but not enough for me to be too concerned.
SP2 OPTIONS
Aaron Nola (DK: $9100, FD: $9100)
Looking for a good SP vs an offense which has cooled off? It’s Nola folks. Don’t give me this crap about Nola on the road, he’s got a fantastic park shift here going into Citi Field and will get plenty of run support tonight.
BEST VALUE ARMS
Clarke Schmidt, Alek Manoah, Julio Teheran
You know the risk with Manoah and Teheran, which also is why Clarke could wind up being a little popular as a cheap option and thus to me he is your fade. Anytime you can get contrarian with a guy struggling but has talent you take it, and that … is … well, no, we’re not going Manoah – pay up for pitching folks.
OTHER SP NOTES
I’m the only person who thinks Alek Manoah is going to still be fine, but that’s still not a good enough feeling to roster him against the Brewers today for me.
Don’t fall into the James Paxton trap, anyone who tries to claim he is “back” clearly just turned on MLB for the first time because this has the makings of Paxton leaving in the 2nd inning with 4 ER allowed and some bullshit injury.
REDS / RED SOX
Cincy: India, McCLain, Steer, Senzel
Boston: Verdugo, Devers
A million runs in this game tonight. Warm weather in Fenway with two straight garbage pitchers. I’ll build everything around this game and expect it to be the obvious chalky spot tonight as well, so be prepared for that.
Also Like:
- Philadelphia – Harper, Schwarber, Realmuto
- Arizona – Carroll, Walker
- Milwaukee – Tellez, Yelich
CATCHER
- JT Realmuto
- Jose Trevino
- Luke Maile
FIRST BASE
- Spencer Steer
- Rowdy Tellez
- Triston Casas
SECOND BASE
- Jonathan India
- Alan Trejo
THIRD BASE
- Rafael Devers
- Nick Senzel
- Alec Bohm
SHORTSTOP
- Bo Bichette
- Matt McClain
- Brice Turang
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Harper, Bryce
- Alex Verdugo
- Yordan Alvarez
- Christian Yelich
OUTFIELD – Value
- Stuart Fairchild of Mine
- Jarren Duran
- Bryce Harper – OF – Phillies – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Spencer Steer – 2B – Reds
- Bo Bichette – SS – Blue Jays
- Yordan Alvarez – OF – Astros
- JT Realmuto – C – Phillies
- Raffy Devers – 3B – Red Sox
- Rowdy Tellez – 1B – Brewers
- Stuart Fairchild – OF – Reds
- BONUS …… Nick Senzel – 3B – Reds
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
I really want to change up the way that MLB betting analysis is done. Betting in general is nothing more than everyone outlining a pick and then a unit size and then claiming that they’re either smashing the closing line value (CLV) or they’re up a bunch of units YTD with all their prop picks and other bets being given out — meanwhile, you could be playing on any one of a dozen or so books, getting the line at a random time and whether it wins or loses you are not up the same amount because you aren’t following 100% the way bets are being given out.
If you want to just have someone do your betting for you then start a brokerage betting account with someone and give them 6% of your paycheck each week and sign some agreement where you get the money when you are about 5 years away from dying if you are lucky.
Or…. Maybe we can change this process, maybe I can do better than just list out some picks in the article which is done earlier in the day and actually do insight into what i’m gonna find myself doing at 7pm, 8pm, 9pm that evening when the games are going on and look for ways to capitalize like taking shots on +600 odds when they are there based on our PRE-GAME thoughts.
MLB betting is mostly people having nothing better to do and thinking that MLB is like NFL or NBA. It’s not. You’re more betting players than you are teams. Teams do not ‘bounce back’ immediately after one loss in a series. They do bounce back from series to series as the stadium changes, but not one night to the next (just ask the Braves). We also have streaks and runs in MLB from game to game, so the idea that your winning streak is only as good as the starting pitcher is actually a little false if you ask me. The hitters are the streaky ones, and when a lineup is hot (or cold) thats what you tail more than the pitcher. And so this comes into play big time on in game betting once we think the SP is going to get knocked out.
So with that said, here’s the analysis for today’s games…
Totals … I would much rather take an alt line total at + odds than the other direction. If a game is going to go under and I am right, chances are it’s going under by a few runs, same with the over. So here’s the over/under analysis for today
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Reds / Red Sox (10.5) … Big question is will the teams hit in the first two innings off the SP and I believe they will, if you do not get this pre-game then you are fading completely, you’ll want to go alt line around 12.5 or so, which feels like a lot — because it is. If its uncomfortable, it’s usually right.
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 game.
- Yankees/Mariners (7.5)
- Brewers/Jays (10.5) … If Milwaukee lefties dont hit Manoah they are dead.
ML Targets … Teams who are playing well, look to get at + odds anytime
- Diamondbacks (-164) … Wouldnt touch pre-game, but if they fall behind early I would. Anything -120 or better is solid