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MLB · June 11, 2023

Sunday Dongers Club – 6/11

If you woke up just now and didn’t look at FD or DK earlier then congrats, you missed out on some drama.  Let me catch you up real quick here.

  • The Astros and Guardians game is moved up to 12:40 due to big storms coming in later in the day.  So thus the slate locks at 12:40 now on both sites and will include that game.
  • The Diamondbacks and Tigers are playing the Sunday Brunch game, I am sure it will be very entertaining.
  • The Padres and Rockies game is included on FanDuel main.

 

WEATHER

  • HOU at CLE – As mentioned above, they have bad weather coming in and thus want to get this game going faster and over with.
  • WSH at ATL – Storms throughout the day.  I really dont like this game.
  • CIN at STL – This will be delayed for sure, but they should be able to wait and play
  • MIA at CWS – Similar here, likely delay and then play without issue.

 

TOP ARM(S)

There’s a high contrarian route which I will outline below, but really your MAIN lineup should be focused around these two guys, with the first one being the #1 overall play on the board today.

Freddy Peralta (DK: $8800, FD: $10.2k)

2020 Most Valuable Brewer #10: Freddy Peralta - Brew Crew Ball

Winners of four in a row, the Oakland Athletics have dreams of replicating Moneyball or replicating the Major League film script, but alas that should come to an end and one of these days very soon you’ll see that no hitter notification that Oakland is being no hit.  Today could be the day we get that along with a 12 strikeout performance from Peralta.  Oakland lacks talent and they cannot hit quality fastballs, which they should see over and over and over again today.

Hunter Greene (DK: $8000, FD: $9600) – Slight weather concern

I am taking a calculated risk that the Reds and Cardinals simply take the smart approach and wait for the rain to clear and then get the game played.  St Louis is off tomorrow and Cincinnati just has to go to Kansas City, so very limited travel if they wait until 4 or 5pm to start this game.  Once they do start it, Greene is going to mow through the Cardinals.

 

SUNDAY SLEEPERS

Normally your Sunday sleeper is someone like Taijuan Walker in the 5500-8000 price range who is going to pitch a nice quiet game and not kill you.  Today though I really like two guys with the same name in very contrarian spots against perceived good teams.  Lets evaluate.

Shane Bieber (DK: $9000, FD: $8100)

This one sets up for a quick game with rain coming in and the Astros without their best hitter as well to push forward for a 7 inning, 0 ER dominant start by Bieber.

Shane McClanahan (DK: $11.4k, FD: $10.5k)

The two best teams in the AL and two great teams vs LHP with two lefties on the mound.  We should like the over here, but we also have a perfect contrarian spot to pivot off Kevin Gausman chalk and just go full sleeper combination with the two Shanes.  Unlike Bieber, I know that McClanahan will have a good strikeout game, so its a matter of how well his change-up is on today as the Rangers are an ELITE team vs change-ups this year.  Lots of risk going against the logical data of Texas vs LHP right now but my gut says Shane Mac shines.

 

TRADITIONAL SUNDAY SLEEPERS / VALUE ARMS

These are the only cheap options I would give consideration on today.  They’re so boring that I can’t even muster up much analysis for you other than they aren’t Kyle Gibson.

Carlos Carrasco (DK: $5100)

Brandon Bielak (DK: $6600)

 

RAYS

Diaz, Franco, Ramirez, Parades

Martin Perez is coming off a great start vs the Cardinals but generally has struggled more this season and unlike Shane won’t have the ability to get out of trouble with strikeouts.  I like the Rays early and often today.

DODGERS vs PHILLIES

LAD:  Muncy, Freeman

PHI:  Schwarber, Stott, Bohm

The only concern I have is that we have a get away game for both teams who will be heading out west after this game.  Everything else points to an eventful 9-7 game.  The Dodgers have their regulars starting today, so that is a great sign.

The Dodgers themselves should hit no fewer than 2 HR off Taijuan Walker, with Muncy and Freeman being the most logical candidates, but I really think Philly wins the game, so I would go heavier on their side.  The Phillies lineup outside of Schwarber has been very ice cold, something which should help them though is seeing a bunch of pitchers who have just 2-pitches in their arsenal, so it’s less guessing at the plate for guys like Stott, Marsh and even Turner and more walks for the good players like Harper and Realmuto.  They’ll have lots of men on base, the question is can we get the big RBI double enough times.

ROYALS

Bobby Witt, Nick Pratto, MJ Melendez

This is mostly a value spot to look at with Kansas City having the better value depth even without Pasquantino.  Pratto ($3000), and Melendez ($3100) are the easy value picks and Bobby Witt Jr should have a BIG game against Kyle Gibson.

 

CATCHER

  1. Alejandro Kirk
  2. William Contreras
  3. Salvador Perez

 

FIRST BASE

  1. Yandy Diaz
  2. Freddie Freeman
  3. Matt Olson … Weather concerns

 

SECOND BASE

  1. Bryson Stott
  2. Mookie Betts
  3. Michael Massey

 

THIRD BASE

Deepest position on the board today.

  1. Max Muncy
  2. Alec Bohm is Back
  3. Isaac Paredes
  4. Jake Burger

 

SHORTSTOP

  1. Bobby Witt Jr
  2. Trea Turner
  3. Wander Franco – Easier to use on FD at his price

 

OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore

This is where the money is saved when building lineups today.

  1. Harold Ramirez
  2. Alex Kiriloff
  3. Nick Pratto
  4. Kyle Schwarber

 

OUTFIELD – Value

  1. Daulton Varsho
  2. Brandon Belt … Him having OF eligibility on DK at this price is great value
  3. Michael A Taylor
  4. MJ Melendez

 

  1. Harold Ramirez – OF – Rays – Chairman of The Dongers Club
  2. Max Muncy – 3B – Dodgers
  3. Matt Olson – 1B – Braves
  4. Nick Pratto – OF – Royals
  5. Alejandro Kirk – C – Blue Jays
  6. Bobby Witt Jr – SS – Royals
  7. Bryson Stott – 2B – Phillies
  8. Alex Kiriloff – OF – Twins
  9. BONUS ……….. Jake Burger – 3B – White Sox

TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS

Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…

  • Dodgers/Phillies … This is the opposite of that Manoah example earlier this week.  First inning could breeze by with a 0-0 score and the total drops down around 7 or 8 and then you jump on the over.  I like runs in the 3rd-6th innings.
  • Twins/Blue Jays

 

Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 game.

  • Astros/Guardians
  • Mets/Pirates

 

ML Targets

  • Guardians
  • Phillies
  • White Sox
  • Reds

 

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