We almost have perfection today as School is out around most of the country and teams have removed the silly 6:10, 6:40 local start times on the East coast. Except for Detroit, where they still want people to show up before 7pm to watch the lowly Tigers play Baseball. I really don’t think it helps the ticket sales Detroit but hey, do whatever you gotta do. The DFS sites of course just cannot live without that extra 30 minutes of lock time to get more entries into contests as they have opted to say no thanks on the Braves/Tigers tonight and give us just a 14 game slate. One away from the perfection of 15 on a Tuesday.
Lots of new series starting up today and by new I mean spots which you haven’t seen all season like the Jays in Camden, that annual Subway Series, Brewers making their annual trip to Minnesota, Pirates at Wrigley, 2019 World Series re-match in Houston, the “we both got rid of Franmil Reyes” series in PETCO and White Sox at Dodgers. Oh, and yes, the Reds and Royals are playing again, sorry in advance… Although with the Reds winning last night they are one step closer to winning the NL Central and with the Athletics winning last night, the Royals are one step closer to having a chance at the #1 pick in next years MLB Draft. So, that’s kinda nice I guess, except MLB of course now has a lottery system so I’m sure the Royals will screw it up somehow.
WEATHER
Pirates at Cubs – Wrigley could have trouble draining today which could lead them to decide to PPD this one. Again, no pitcher consideration in this game, but either the game is PPD before it locks or they play
Rockies at Red Sox – Should not be as ugly as it got in extra innings last night (cash that Rockies win though), but chance for an in game delay does loom here. No impact on using pitchers though, so move right along.
Roof closed in Arizona.
Roof should be closed in Texas.
There’s no Zach Eflin tonight folks, it’s a bunch of bums obviously according to the comical pricing algorithm on DraftKings. By comical I mean, we have nobody who is 11k but the slate includes Zack Wheeler, Corbin Burnes, Max Scherzer and George Kirby — of which only one of them is $10k or more. Must be a big slate with lots of MME donkey contests out there. Honestly, the pricing doesn’t bother me that much in MLB DFS, it’s just funny how they lower the settings on some days.
TOP ARM
Joe Musgrove (DK: $7800)
The constant disrespect by DraftKings on Musgrove’s price at home is fine with me. Musgrove is consistent, solid vs LHH and very good at home. While Cleveland is a good contact team with no power, they’re not gonna bust a guy who is sub 8k.
SECONDARY ARMS
Max Scherzer (DK: $9800)
He has clearly figured out his comfort level with the pitch clock and seems to be working well with Francisco Alvarez. The veteran ended up allowing 5 ER and 11 HITS to the good Atlanta offense but his total last three starts overall have been more Max like. There’s two strong bats in the Yankee lineup and then garbage after that, and both of them are guys who were coming off the IL and then went into an immediate slump but are likely going to break out tonight. If you can live with the Rizzo-Stanton bombs and want a 7 IP, 2 ER, 10K performance, then just sign on the dotted line here folks.
Edward Cabrera (DK: $9600) & George Kirby (DK: $9300)
Recommending both of these young talented RHP, but you will not want to game stack them as both should probably be about $500-$700 cheaper when compared to guys like Max or even Burnes. That said, you have Cabrera who has shown he can generate lots of whiffs and a Seattle team who despite beating up Luzardo last night is still a high K team and I don’t imagine them changing permanently from that.
Kirby has had 2 bad starts out of his last three, but the game in San Diego doesn’t bother me much as I expect him to bounce back with a solid outing tonight.
DARKHORSE / SLEEPER / BULLWINKLE PICK OF THE DAY
This is a great slate if you like to be someone who pulls out a sleeper/darkhorse pick. This is typically guys like Taillon, Flaherty, Lyles, Corbin, etc. who normally are big time targets that you want to pick on but because they are veterans who get the ball every 5 days they’ll pull a rabbit out of their hat every once and a while. Which is exactly why I gave Chase Anderson the Bullwinkle nickname because he has been known for doing that in his career, but even though he too is pitching tonight, you’re not gonna want to use him for that because he’s been doing it all season.
Jordan Lyles just did it, so you missed his one great start. Patrick Corbin did it not too long ago as well. Taillon has weather concerns and is facing his former team and Flaherty is … just no. We also missed the Zach Davies gem start, so just throw him into the fire tonight even with the roof closed.
So yeah, as you can see, the process of elimination on the sleepers tonight is moving along rather quickly and lands us on someone who based on name and opponent you would never use, but I honestly think the trends point to him pitching well today and that is …
Lance Bleepin Lynn (DK: $7600)
It’s kinda chilly out in L.A. today, which should favor the sweaty and mighty Lance Lynn. Two hot weather starts in his last two contributed to some poor outings, but with Lynn we know he will give you 100 pitches and just needs to manage himself against the LHH. That’s Freeman who should cool off after a hot week, Muncy (this is a concern) and David Peralta who doesn’t stay hot for long and is definitely due for an IL stint by the way. Overall this is more the gut feel of a game the Dodgers drop 5-2 and Lynn recovers from two down starts to go 6 innings, allow 1 run himself and strikeout 6.
OTHER PITCHING NOTES
Brandon Williamson obviously fits the ‘Royals have never seen this SP before’ theory but his inability to control RH bats with a now hot Salvador Perez and Bobby Witt showing some signs of life are too risky with plenty of alternative options out there today.
ORIOLES
Henderson, Rutschman, Santander
Bassitt enjoyed two great starts in a row, now he gets an offense that should Ambush him early. Henderson for $3600 is just a no brainer given how hot he has gotten and that he should continue to thrive in the lead off spot.
On the other side, Toronto used to rake in Baltimore before they moved the wall out in LF, but we gotta like their bottom of the order guys like Varsho and Kiermaier as one offs.
GIANTS
Pederson, Conforto, Wade
Flaherty has turned the corner some but still should be expected to give up 4+ ER today vs the Giants. Love some Joc tonight.
OTHER GOOD SPOTS
ASTROS
Altuve, Dubon, Bregman
So did you read what I wrote above? Or are you just skimming? I literally gave you the cliff notes on which pitchers we don’t want, such as Davies, Flaherty and of course, Patrick Corbin.
BREWERS vs TWINS
MIL: Adames, Yelich
MIN: Correa, Larnach
Game stacking Lopez/Burnes with two good bullpens kinda feels silly but that Brewers pen is struggling of late and this game has the best weather conditions for offense. I really like the HR upside in this game.
CATCHER
- Yasmani Grandal
- Adley Rutschman
- Salvador Perez
FIRST BASE
- LaMonte Wade Jr
- Vladdy
- Nate Lowe
SECOND BASE
- Jose Altuve
- Jonathan India
- Luis V Garcia
THIRD BASE
Couple guys here who are eligible at SS as well, 3B is actually kinda deep overall so consider Gunnar/Elly at SS as well…
- Gunnar Henderson (Also eligible at SS)
- Elly De La Cruz … Nice, $4700, here comes the boom.
- Alex Bregman … If you want an 10 on DraftKings, here’s a 10. 4600 to get yourself an 10. Not gonna suck, not gonna blow your socks off. It’s an Alex Bregman 2-5 night with an RBI. Cool.
- Anthony Rendon
SHORTSTOP
Unfortunately SS is also very deep
- Corey Seager
- Bo Bichette
- Bobby Witt Jr
- Matt McLain
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Joc Pederson
- Bryce Harper … or Kyle Schwarber … There’s a no doubt about it bomb going into the Chase Field Pool tonight in the first inning assuming Schwarber bats 1st and Harper bats 3rd. It’s either Schwarber to lead it off or Harper with 2 outs, but it’ll be 1-0 Phillies either way. My gut says Harper.
- Kyle Tucker
- Anthony Santander
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Giancarlo Stanton … Mr. Citi Field
- Luis Robert Jr
- Spencer Steer
- Bryan Reynolds
OUTFIELD – Value
- Hunter Renfroe
- Mauricio Dubon
- Daulton Varsho / Kevin Kiermaier
- Joc Pederson & Yasmani Grandal – Joc-n-Grandal – The Co Chairmen of The Dongers Club
- Corey Seager – SS – Rangers
- Bryce Harper – OF – Phillies
- Gunnar Henderson – 3B – Orioles
- Vladdy – 1B – Blue Jays
- Kyle Tucker – OF – Astros
- Giancarlo Stanton – OF – Yankees
- BONUS …………….. Hunter Renfroe – OF – Angels
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Giants/Cardinals
- Brewers/Twins
- Angels/Rangers
- Rays/Athletics
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 game.
- White Sox/Dodgers
- Marlins/Mariners
ML Targets
- Mets
- Giants
- Reds
- Orioles
- Rays
- White Sox