Anyone else find it weird that MLB has almost no day games this week? I realize they are scared of warmer weather but it’s just weird still. There are a ton of series which will go into tomorrow still and speaking of tomorrow, I will be off from writing an article as Rob Geriak steps in for the MAIN slate tomorrow night to provide his MLB thoughts to help you out. And if you aren’t reading his NASCAR stuff each weekend you should be to pick up some winners there as well.
Tonight we have 12 games.
WEATHER
Blue Jays at Orioles – The balls should be flying out of Camden tonight (Baseball’s that is).
Rockies at Red Sox – Expect this game to have a chance of a delay at the start. It is possible that they PPD it but I doubt it. Don’t wanna touch either pitcher, so it’s a matter of waiting it out for hitters or not.
Yankees at Mets – Similar deal here, but I believe this one plays
Roof closed in Arizona
After a very rough start on the week with pitching we have a loaded group today, including Gerrit Cole vs Justin Verlander as the marquee game of the night. Not only is there weather issues there, but we do not want to touch that with a 50 foot pole…. And it’s not a 10 foot pole because of inflation, duh.
TOP ARM
Tyler Glasnow (DK: $9400, FD: $10.1k)
Will the fans come back out to Oakland tonight after creating a pretty cool environment last night in their protest of the Ownership? The team has won 7 in a row after all and has done it against some quality teams. Tonight though Glasnow could thrive off a little bit of a let down and more so in MLB a team who is a little too aggressive/full of themselves at the plate. High fastballs and lots of whiffs on the slider from Glasnow tonight should get the job done.
Clayton Kershaw (DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.1k)
So my pick last night of Yasmani Grandal actually fits into a theory tonight because he has caught Kershaw before, but it was definitely a while ago. That one little bat is why I move Kershaw down to the #2 spot behind Glasnow – similar to Max being #2 last night because of Stanton. Unlike Max though, Kershaw hasn’t shown signs of slowing down this season and is facing the White Sox, which is about as confident as one can feel when picking a pitcher.
Tell me you don’t get the same immediate instinct on this game as me which is thoughts of Vin Scully putting you to sleep while Kershaw is dealing a 7 inning 1 ER gem to slowly push your lineup up closer and closer to the #1 spot overall. Kershaw and Glasnow are easily 1a/1b.
SECONDARY ARMS
Daniel Lynch (DK: $6400)
I like Daniel Lynch a good deal tonight. The Reds have not hit change-up’s very well and McLain/EDLC have been more prone to strikeouts vs LHP so far. He just cannot be trusted to hit 20 DK FPTS and we have 3-5 other guys on the slate who should be able to do that. I prefer raw points from pitchers when you can get it instead of chasing someone to get point/$ value type plays. This isn’t NBA, I can find a 3500 hitter to get me a 17 easier than making up pitching points.
OTHER PITCHING NOTES
Eury Perez and Luis Castillo … Both are gonna pitch well. It’s a great game to watch and I don’t dislike the idea of even a gamestack here and between the two Luis Castillo is the obvious one to trust as a one off.
Aaron Civale … Will pitch decent but without any strikeouts. Just take the under here.
Drew Smyly … Same, gimme Lynch instead.
JAYS/ORIOLES
TOR: Springer, Bichette, Vladdy
BAL: Rutschman, Henderson
For me weather boosts are a combination of the heat, humidity, dewpoint and of course wind. All of them are decent here tonight, none are amazing, but together they should present a good boost for a series which had plenty of HR upside last night as well.
Adley versus Berrios is an absolute cheat code tonight, he is slugging .884 off RHP Slurves and should see one down-middle of the zone that he takes out to RF, his mini slump ends tonight. Meanwhile, the streaky Gunnar Henderson is still 3700 and I have no reason not to expect him to do well again.
Another mini-slump from a power perspective is Vlad Guerrero who has 5 hits in 14 PA vs Bradish lifetime with a homer and if Bradish throws him a fastball it will result in more hits here. Overall this is a spot where Toronto has seen Bradish enough in his young career that they’ll be able to wait him out and not let him repeat his 10K performance from last week.
DIAMONDBACKS
Rivera, Walker, Moreno, Marte, Gurriel
Ranger Suarez posted a 14.8 vs the Mets, then a 18.35 vs the Nationals and then a 23.9 vs the Dodgers (we rode him 2 of those starts). So the DraftKings exceptional pricing algorithm (which seems to never be wrong) has to jump him up to 7k or so, right?
Negatory kids. Why? Because they know damn well he’s gonna get lit up like a Christmas Tree in the desert tonight by the snakes. The only key decision you have is going Rivera or Longoria at 3B. Zona has done very well vs primary sinker-ballers, is great at home and should have the depth to have long innings tonight on offense.
RANGERS
Jung, Garver, Duran
The only way Texas can win you money in DFS tonight is with the Jung-Heim-Garver part of the order doing work, and if that part of the order is getting on (they hit LHP well so they can) then Zeke Duran is going to have a big game here as well. Gotta bank on the bottom part of the order doing well.
OTHER GOOD SPOTS
Boston (Duvall, Refsnyder, Turner): Pending the rain situation here, which I would just check on the radar around 6:30 to see how fast it’s clearing out and that should tell you if they’re gonna wait it out or not — really like Adam Duvall for Boston though.
CATCHER
Very good position tonight for a Wednesday. I have Adley #1 because I believe he will homer, but if Arizona is your stack, Moreno is the play because his price and total salary is going to be just fine here too.
- Adley Rutschman
- Gabriel Moreno
- Mitch Garver
FIRST BASE
Toughest call on the board. We’ll see Justin Turner come out as the chalk 1B, opening up a great pivot to Walker and or Vlad – both of which can win the slate.
- Vlad Guerrero Jr … Call be stupid, but seeing Vladdy moved DOWN to 4th actually makes me love him more tonight. We have a Chairman swap, lets hope it doesn’t go poorly.
- Christian Walker
- Yandy Diaz
SECOND BASE
- Michael Massey
- Ketel Marte
- Gleyber Torres
- Andres Gimenez
THIRD BASE
I am going with Manny Rivera over Longo, wish me luck.
- Emmanuel Rivera
- Josh Jung
- KeBryan Hayes
SHORTSTOP
- Bo Bichette
- Gunnar Henderson
- Trea Turner
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Adam Duvall … On one hand it stinks that he is 5100, on the other hand hopefully it keeps his ownership down some.
- George Springer
- Mike Trout … Playing after a rest day.
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Bryce Harper
- Seiya Suzuki
- Josh Lowe
OUTFIELD – Value
- Daulton Varsho
- Ezequiel Duran
- Rob Refsnyder
- Nolan Jones
- Corey Julks
- Vlad Guerrero Jr – 1B – Blue Jays – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Adley Rutschman – C – Orioles
- Michael Massey – 2B – Royals
- Adam Duvall – OF – Red Sox
- Emmanuel Rivera – 3B – Diamondbacks
- Ezequiel Duran – OF – Rangers
- George Springer – OF – Blue Jays
- Bo Bichette – SS – Blue Jays
- BONUS ……………. Christian Walker – 1B – Diamondbacks
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Toronto/Baltimore
- Angels/Rangers
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 game.
- Marlins/Mariners
- Guardians/Padres
ML Targets
- Toronto
- Texas
- Kansas City
- Miami
- Arizona
FINAL THOUGHT …
You have to have Vlad or Walker, period.