Coming back to the perfect Friday MLB DFS configuration is peak joy. A 2:20 PM Cubs/Orioles game should be well underway by now on the Friday drinking before technically a 3 day holiday weekend + Fathers Day + US Open on TV coming up and ladies and gentlemen. We have a 14 game MAIN slate tonight.
WEATHER
Marlins at Nationals – Rain chances with storms around gametime, but I expect this one … ah, you know what, I am not gonna predict Nationals games. Nope. Not gonna do it.
Cardinals at Mets – We are monitoring this one VERY closely. Big PPD risk but if they do PPD it I would assume its before lock time.
Roof closed in Arizona
TOP ARM(S)
Joe Ryan (DK: $10,600)
Almost a 100% full slate and Joe Ryan could still wind up being a 40% chalk pitcher despite three straight games where he has not put up elite numbers. Ignore the game log reading though because the Tigers are 25th and 28th respectively in splits against his primary pitch usage this season. Their inability to take walks is also going to help him here tonight and he has to easily be the most sure thing safe option.
Zac Gallen (DK: $10,200, FD: $10,800)
Love Smash Gallen today. The Guardians lefties won’t phase him, he has been great vs LHH this season and really for a good part of his career. Cleveland’s recent power surge in San Diego also does not phase me here as I trust the larger sample size of what we know the offense is. Gallen is great at home, he should be great tonight as long as Jose Ramirez stays quiet.
SECONDARY ARMS
Patrick Sandoval (DK: $7300, FD: $8100)
He is the clear cut #1 value for me if Salvador Perez is out. If Salvy is in though I would still use him just don’t think he is as clean as we want, but the price for someone I am extremely confident wins today at 7300 here on DraftKings makes him the no doubt SP2 for me. He will beat Rich Hill folks.
OTHER PITCHING NOTES
- Everyone will use Rich Hill for $6700 vs the Brewers because they’ve been dog poop against LHP. I hate the spot for Hill who is coming off throwing 119 pitches on June 9th vs the Mets and last I checked he has to use some blue pills to transition from Hill to Mountain, which I don’t believe he can get that done here today.
- Kevin Gausman will bounce back today, but you can’t convince me to use him vs Texas for 11.2k.
- Both Taijuan Walker and JP Sears are decent considering their price, but Sandoval and one of the studs above just makes way more sense.
CARDINALS
Donovan, Goldschmidt, Arenado, DeJong, Carlson
It would be fitting for the Cardinals season for their potential break out series to have weather issues. After blowing more games and just continuing the suck, the Cardinals leaders are finally going to take charge here after a much needed day off. Going into New York to face a similar team who has had a struggling season should set this up to where we see desperation come out, hitting prevail and of course some carry over from last years bench clearing incident between these teams.
Specifically though, the Cards vs Tylor Megill is where I want to invest in, pending weather. Arenado has been Mr. Friday for a while, but Paul DeJong is our sleeper tonight, he hits well in Citi Field, he has shown some signs of life this season and should be the bottom of the lineup damage to turn the stack over.
If this was a clear day in New York, I would say go 5 Cardinals. They should nuke the Mets.
ANGELS
Ward, Oohtani, Drury, Walsh
This should be your no-shit sherlock spot on the board. Ohtani at $6400 is too cheap if you ask me. Singer should make a mistake against Drury or Renfroe, but he DEFINITELY makes a mistake vs Jared Walsh
REDS
India or McLain, De La Cruz, Steer, Stephenson
Gotta have the RH bats vs JP France and building around EDLC won’t bust either. One of these teams is trending up towards the playoffs to win their division and the other will get a solo HR from Jose Altuve tonight.
BRAVES
Riley, Ozuna, Rosario
Atlanta will be the most highly touted team today that nobody actually builds arounds because Acuna is 6600, Olson is 6300 and unless everyone is paying down on both pitchers you won’t be able to build around that core. But, if Atlanta is going to put up a 7 or 8 today, you damn well know that 3700 Marcell Ozuna and 3500 Eddie Rosario are doing damage.
OTHER GOOD SPOTS
- BLUE JAYS … Oooh, which Martin Perez are we getting? Which Vladdy are we getting? Will the Jays wake up here? I damn well expect Bichette and Springer to do their part.
CATCHER
- Tyler Stephenson
- William Contreras … Should be some love tonight for Rich Hill as the Brewers are bad vs LHP, but I like this spot for them as I outlined above. Contreras is a key bat to do damage if Milwaukee does come through for me. Stephenson is equal to him though and cheaper.
- Matt Thais
FIRST BASE
If Goldy gets PPD then Ohtani can be slid in here as the top pay up 1B tonight on DK.
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Garrett Cooper
- Brandon Drury
SECOND BASE
- Jonathan India
- Jose Altuve
- Nolan Gorman
THIRD BASE
- Nolan Arenado
- Luis Urias
- KeBryan Hayes
SHORTSTOP
- Paul DeJong
- Bo Bichette
- Willy Adames
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
Lots of value overall in the OF on both sites, which is normal for a 14 game slate given the depth of options at OF. That said, you run a lot of risk just going blindly with core value one offs in the OF. Cardinals will give you enough value here if stacking them.
- Shohei Ohtani
- Brian Anderson
- Marcell Ozuna
- George Springer
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Spencer Steer
- Mike Trout
- Mookie Betts
OUTFIELD – Value
- Dylan Carlson
- Brendan Donovan
- Sir Thomas Pham
- Taylor Ward
- Paul DeJong – SS – St. Louis Cardinals – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Tyler Stephenson – C – Reds
- Jose Altuve – 2B – Astros
- Nolan Arenado – 3B – Cardinals
- Garrett Cooper – 1B – Marlins
- Brian Anderson – OF – Brewers
- Marcell Ozuna – OF – Braves
- George Springer – OF – Blue Jays
- BONUS …….. Shohei Ohtani – 1B/OF – Angels
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Cardinals/Mets
- Reds/Astros
- Pirates/Brewers
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 game.
- Yankees/Red Sox
- Guardians/Diamondbacks
- Phillies/Athletics
ML Targets
- Cardinals
- Yankees
- Brewers
- Reds
- Phillies