Welcome to June, Kyle Schwarber’s favorite month for some reason or another. Schwarber has hit 47 home runs in the month of June in 132 career games. Not too bad, and one of the reasons I think he has been due for a breakout here soon, but the other is just the entire Phillies lineup construct and getting their cycles coordinated between Turner-Schwarber-Harper-Castellanos and Realmuto. Once they do, look out.
What does this have to do with today’s slate? Absolutely nothing. Well, they are on the slate vs Max Scherzer in a day game….
Anyways, seven total games today, 4 are early, 3 are late. I’ll cover it all
WEATHER
Three domes on the early slate and the Citi Field game between Phillies/Mets which will be played in 80 degree temps and probably good for home runs and all.
No weather issues for the 3 night gamges today which are:
- Reds/Red Sox
- Guardians/Twins
- Angels/Astros
TOP ARMS
Jesus Luzardo and Joe Musgrove
I like Kevin Gausman’s strikeout upside vs Milwaukee (who doesn’t?), but my big call today is that Luzardo finishes as the top K pitcher on the slate. I would jump on his strikeout props and maybe even ladder it up today and if we get lucky with a South Beach afternoon lineup from the Padres then this could have 8 inning, 1 hit performance all over it.
With Musgrove being 7300 I suspect he is no doubt 40% or higher owned on DraftKings, and quite possibly #1 on FanDuel as well. Fade on FD, but take the SP double barrel on a short slate.
NIGHT SLATE ARMS
- Chris Sale
- Hunter Greene
- Framber Valdez
CITI FIELD
If you read what I randomly wrote above then you see where I am going here. It’s Philly vs Max, good weather, wind blowing out, cycles syncing up. Make us proud today Phillies, make us proud.
The Mets are the lede being buried here though, they’ll get to face Taijuan Walker, their former pal and boy has he been bad in Philly — especially here in a divisional game vs a team who should be patient at the plate drawing walks and have lots of RISP opportunities. Mets bats are cheap too.
- KEY PHILLIES … Schwarber, Harper, Marsh, Turner
- KEY METS … McNeil, Nimmo, Baty, Alonso
Next Best Team: Colorado
NIGHT SLATE STACKS
- Guardians (Ramirez, Bell)
- Twins (Gallo, Buxton)
- Astros (Altuve)
CATCHER
- Elias Diaz … You won’t feel like paying 4800 for a catcher today on DraftKings, but if you can I think he’s going to homer today.
- JT Realmuto
- Francisco Alvarez
FIRST BASE
- Pete Alonso
- Kody Clemens
- Nolan Jones
SECOND BASE
- Jeff McNeil
- Bryson Stott
THIRD BASE
SHORTSTOP
- Francisco Lindor
- Trea Turner
- Ezequiel Tovar
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Kyle Schwarber
- Harper, Bryce
- Brandon Nimmo
- Kris Bryant
OUTFIELD – Value
- Brandon Marsh
- Nolan Jones
- Kevin Kiermaier
- Kyle Schwarber – OF – Phillies – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Brett Baty – 3B – Mets – Assistant (to the) Chairman of The Dongers Club
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Phillies / Mets (8.5)
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 game.
- Padres / Marlins (7.5)
- Rockies / Diamondbacks (10)
ML Targets … Teams who are playing well, look to get at + odds anytime
- Rockies (+146) … Really like Colorado today
- Phillies (+144) … Assuming they do hit Max then as the road team they’ll go up and you will have an easy arbitrage opportunity here. Anytime we have a road dog over 1.3 which we like offensively we should consider it an arbitrage scenario — meaning you buy the Phillies at 1.4 here and if they’re up say 3-1 in the 3rd inning after a 2-run homer then the in game on the Mets should also be close to 1.4 and you’ll 100% ensure a profit by taking both sides. Obviously if you are just betting $10 a day this is a good amount of work, but when I also like the team to win, it’s worth the up front risk.
- No lean on the other two games early
For the Night Slate
Jose Ramirez Chairman
Fade Mike Trout
Houston ML