A nearly full Friday night slate with no Wrigley afternoon game unfortunately and two turbo slate 5pm/6pm window games as we lose the Athletics and Marlins (bummer man!) and the Brewers and Reds — which feels like a series that has a million runs in a warm Cincinnati weekend.
All in all we have summer like conditions today with a ton of big name pitchers going as well tonight. We also have ‘remember me”s’ going on this weekend with the new series.
- Moose Tacos back in Kansas City (hey, how about that….)
- Jesse Winker back in Cincinnati (hey, how about that….)
- Schwarber, Harper and Turner back in Washington (hey, how about that…..)
WEATHER
Hot with storms and rain in a few spots.
Tampa Bay at Boston – This one does not look good. High PPD risk.
Cleveland at Minnesota – Storms before and early in the game, they should be able to play.
Roof open in Arizona
As mentioned above a lot of big name pitchers going such as Ohtani, Kershaw, Framber, Wheeler, Webb, Verlander, Glasnow, Castillo (!!!), Severino, two of the Grays (Jon and Josiah) as well as Michael Wacha, Bailey Ober, Aaron Civale and Dean Kremer, which is honestly the closest grouping to some 50’s all male band we have going today. Oh yeah, Chase Anderson is going tonight as well, fun times.
However, a lot of the ‘Good’ pitchers are facing good teams or in weather spots which are really good for hitting, and conversely the bad pitchers are facing some bad teams. Like Jordan Lyles vs Colorado.
TOP ARMS
Shohei Ohtani (DK: 10.7k, 10.8k)
He has had some huge games against Houston in his career, which stands out given the fact that most pitchers do not have success vs the Astros. The home/road splits are still a negative for Ohtani, his production away from Anaheim just isn’t the same, but the Astros aren’t what I would consider a hot offense at the moment with Tucker struggling and Altuve/Abreu/Bregman/Pena not hitting RHP much if at all.
SP2 CHOICES
Zack Wheeler (DK: $9200, FD: $10900)
Look for back to back solid A+ starts from Wheeler, he can be streaky and the Nationals are returning from a west coast trip tonight, are probably a little groggy and should whiff more than they normally do.
Mike Clevinger (DK: $6600)
I can see Clevinger doing well vs Detroit who has lost Riley Greene to injury and Clevinger has pitched well in 3 of his last 4. On the other hand, asking Clevinger to pitch well in 4 out of 5 is a bit of a risky proposition, but a 14-16 point DK performance should be expected. Dont use him on FD.
OTHER SP NOTES
- Framber is okay, but without the high win probability I would rather just take Ohtani.
- Also like to pitch well: Dean Kremer, Charlie Morton, Luis Severino, Logan Webb
Big time one off slate for me today. Lots of 2-2-2 type builds.
ROCKIES / ROYALS
Jones, McMahon, Blackmon, Vinnie, Salvy, Witt
This is one of those bad team games with bad SP and no real lock down arm in the bullpen to attack. Very quietly the Rockies are finally making a move towards their next wave of young bats and the LH splits against Lyles never fail. This would be a Nolan Jones smash spot for COL.
And then there is KC who gets Chase Anderson due for a 7 ER spot. They’ll destroy him tonight
CARDS / BUCCOS
STL (Gorman, Donovan, Arenado), PIT (Reynolds, McCutchen)
It’s easier for lefties to do well in Pittsburgh and Contreras hasn’t been able to get lefties out all season. This sets up nicely for Gorman and Donovan to be sub 5k core bats from the Cardinals and with Jack Flaherty coming off a string of 100+ PC games we’re more likely to get the bad Jack than the good Jack tonight, opening up a big Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen spot for the Pie-Rats.
PHILLIES
Turner, Schwarber
The homer upside is pretty strong in a warm Nationals Park with Josiah Gray throwing. I haven’t had much luck calling the breakouts on the Phils beyond Bohm early in the season, so lets give ole Trea Turner a try, shall we? Gray’s been harder hit by RH hitters and of course you have Trea back in DC Narrative too — not just Bryce.
TWINS
Gallo, Kiriloff, Keper, Polanco
Heeeeeeey, welcome back Civale, now here is a rough start for you. The trio of Gallo, Kiriloff and Kepler along with Jorge Polanco put the Twins in a good spot for long innings.
OTHER GAME NOTES
- If Tampa/Boston is not PPD you gotta love the Rays, who come in ice cold but should get right in a big way at Fenway.
- Yanks/Dodgers will have fireworks. So too will Jays/Mets.
- Braves/Diamondbacks has roof open but could be a dud spot IMO.
- Padres? Chalk? No thanks.
CATCHER
- Gabriel Moreno
- Sean Murphy
- Willson Contreras
FIRST BASE
- Freddie Freeman
- Pete Alonso
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Alex Kiriloff
SECOND BASE
- Nolan Gorman
- Gleyber Torres
- Matt Duffy
THIRD BASE
- Ryan McMahon
- Jose Ramirez
- Nolan Arenado
SHORTSTOP
- Bobby Witt Jr
- Bo Bichette
- Corey Seager
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Bryan Reynolds
- Eloy Jimenez
- Kyle Schwarber
OUTFIELD – Value
- Nolan Jones
- Jordan Walker
- Max Kepler
- Eddie Rosario
- Giancarlo Stanton – OF – NY Yankees – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Eloy Jimenez
- Kyle Schwarber
- Salvador Perez
- Freddie Freeman
- Gleyber Torres
- Ryan McMahon
- Corey Seager
- Bonus …. Bryan Reynolds
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Cards/Pirates
- Yanks/Dodgers
- Rox/Royals
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 game.
- Orioles/Giants
ML Targets … Teams who are playing well, look to get at + odds anytime
- Rangers
- Royals
- Diamondbacks