There are 12 main slate games this evening as the Cubs are back to having a Friday afternoon home game and then there are two early window spots with a rare 5PM start on the Friday Turbo slate.
We’re going to be missing out on Padres @ Reds and Nationals @ Phillies. If you wanna dabble on those spots I love Jake Cronenworth/Roughned Odor for San Diego and welcome to the summer of Alec Bohm for the Phillies.
WEATHER
Possible storms in Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Atlanta, Kansas City, St. Louis, Colorado, but really I think all of them are going to be okay. Summer storms though can be unpredictable so the St. Louis/Atlanta ones are probably the most likely for an in game storm tonight which really only impacts pitching and no, I don’t want any pitcher from those games which would be Bryan Hoeing, Michael Soroka, Luis Severino, Matthew Liberatore.
SP1
SHANE McCLANAHAN (Both Sites: $11,000)
Not a lot of great pitching options tonight, so this means even at $11k McClanahan is going to be a highly owned option on DK (and definitely on FD as a single SP site). So yeah, there’s the logic that hey I can try to fade McClanahan at high ownership and out smart everyone seeing as he left his last start early and has not been having as much SwStr% over the last 8-12 starts as he normally has had. Then again, there is the reality of waking up at 3am and seeing he had how many vs the Mariners — who have had troubles hitting lefties of late?? Yeah, the upside here is tremendous if he really is back to form, especially considering the rest of the options are kinda dogshit.
SP2 OPTION(s)
PABLO LOPEZ (DK: $9900, FD: $9500)
I love Lopez for $9500 on FanDuel in what feels like an easy steal there. Give me talent and reliability tonight on this slate. I don’t need a 60 from anyone on FD and you can play him on DK with Miller as well. Lopez will give you 6 innings, limited damage, enough strikeouts. There’s no depth on aces today that you have to beat, so throw out all the %’s and splits and ride the trusted arm to compile outs.
BOBBY MILLER (DK: $8900, FD: $9800)
There have been some comparisons between Bobby Miller and Walker Buehler. Speaking of which, Walker Buehler looks like he’s on a faster track to rehab and maybe this is the year the Dodgers do things backwards and get everyone healthy in the second half to make a late run — they’re a pretty good futures bet to win the NL right now and while they might not have +4000 odds like the Tigers to win the AL Central, they actually can win it unlike other horrible advice out there. Anyways, the comparisons to Buehler are interesting, sure, they are both Dodgers, they both have similar release points and uh, both were college arms? Otherwise lets slow the comps just a little bit for now, but the signs are encouraging and the Royals present a great opportunity for him to pitch well after two bad starts vs Houston/San Francisco.
OTHER PITCHING NOTES
- Carlos Carrasco ($6000) … The Mets are a mess, but so too are the Giants offensively. Conforto is banged up and likely sits tonight before turning over Sat/Sun for his Citi Field redemption. This is worth taking a shot on with Carrasco.
- Luis Medina ($5800) … I wouldn’t normally cross the threshold, but the big stadium and a lineup that has 2 main bats going right now puts him on the radar for a decent return.
- Osvaldo Bido ($7800) … He wans’t great in the minors and has been lucky so far in the bigs. Brewers lefties hit him today.
DODGERS
Betts, Freeman, Smith, Muncy, Peralta
Cool, so the Royals will try to cycle another young arm up to start things off tonight as Alec Marsh fills in for the “ill” Jordan Lyles. Good luck kid, you get to square off with Mooke, Freddie, Muncy and JD. Have fun.
TWINS
Kepler, Kiriloff, Julien, Lewis
I wish Kepler would lead off, but it’s Correa — which is an interesting role for him to try to be settling into. Kremer’s weakness by far is handling lefties. The heart of the order being Kiriloff (4), Lewis (5) and Kepler (6) though should clean things up.
TIGERS
Vierling, Ibanez, Torkelson
They’re cheap and in Coors Field and anyone who can put the ball in the gap will do well here, which is a big plus for Matt Vierling, Andy Ibanez and even Spencer Torkelson. By the way, those three combined cost less than McClanahan tonight & that’s why Shane is your SP1 ahead of Lopez.
MARLINS / BRAVES
MIA: Soler, Chisholm, Fortes
ATL: Acuna, he owns the Marlins
Tough to know exactly what we get from Soroka coming back up to the MLB level after some starts back down in the minors. He continues to work though things and probably isn’t fit for this game very long. If Soler gets a lefty out of the pen then we might have a ball leaving the stadium tonight, literally out of the stadium.
CATCHER
- Will Smith
- Jake Rogers
- Nick Fortes
FIRST BASE
- Alex Kiriloff
- Spencer Torkelson
- Freddie Freeman
SECOND BASE
- Brandon Drury
- Edouard Julien
- Andy Ibanez
THIRD BASE
- Rafael Devers
- Max Muncy
- Austin Riley
SHORTSTOP
- Corey Seager
- Bo Bichette
- Nick Gonzales
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Mookie Betts
- Ronald Acuna Jr
- Max Kepler
- Christian Yelich
OUTFIELD – Mid Range
- Jorge Soler
- George Springer
- Jazz Chisholm
- Alex Verdugo
OUTFIELD – Value
- Harrison Bader
- David Peralta
- Matt Vierling
- Rafael Devers – 3B – Red Sox – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Max Kepler – OF – Twins
- Corey Seager – SS – Rangers
- Max Muncy – 3B – Dodgers
- Brandon Drury – 2B – Angels
- Matt Vierling – OF – Tigers
- Harrison Bader – OF – Yankees
- Will Smith – OF – Dodgers
- BONUS ………….. Mookie Betts – OF – Dodgers
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Marlins/Braves
- Red Sox/Blue Jays
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game.
- Giants/Mets
- White Sox/Athletics
- Rays/Mariners
ML Targets
- Twins