Welcome to the Sunday Edition of The Dongers Club, with one showdown game going off between the Cardinals and Pirates featuring the Porn Stache Miles Mikolas and Dick Mountain, live at 11:35 am, streaming live into your living rooms on Peacock.
Then we have a ten game Main slate, followed by the most underrated slate in Daily Fantasy Sports, a three game 4PM Sunday afternoon slate which features the Italian, a Gallen and maybe some Marcus Stroman chalk.
It all wraps up with an early dusk/late afternoon game in Chavez Ravine between Domingo German and Bobby Miller.
Should be a good Sunday, folks. Let’s dive in.
WEATHER
Without looking, guess what the temperature in Boston is today…. It’s 48 degrees. For a HIGH! With an 18% chance of rain. Get the fuck out of here. In May? And my wife wonders why we’ll never move up there. F that noise man.
Overall that 1-2 day heat wave has gone away everywhere. All games should play though without any PPD risk.
TOP ARM(s)
Sandy Alcantara (DK: $9000, FD: $9700)
South Beach Sunday with Sandy, the hapless Athletics and one of his best spots of the season and certainly of late. Look for a 30% strikeout rate against a lineup who doesn’t walk an excessive amount and has very little power. 7 innings, 7 strikeouts, 1 ER. Lock and load Sandy…
Nate Eovaldi (DK: $11k, FD: $10.8k)
Eovaldi versus Bryce Miller is easily the best A vs B pitching match-up today. I don’t wanna fuck with Texas’ lineup right now so Miller is OUT and Eovaldi at 11k on DraftKings has been producing like that but presents a scenario of deciding to pair him and the comfortable Alcantara together and manage the lineup construction after that.
SP2 CANDIDATES
There are none today. You are either pairing the two guys above together or moving down to the Sunday Sleeper gut call section and boy do I have some thoughts in that regard.
Taj Bradley at $8800 just doesn’t work for me. Put all your data and metrics aside and recognize that you’ll be banking on a Rays pitcher who has not thrown more than 90 pitches all season (his last start) to go longer and better than Sandy or big Nate and even in chilly Boston I can’t justify that as a thing you must do. Will he suck? Doubt it, just not expecting the 20-30 point performance and more the 12-17….
SUNDAY SLEEPER
Ranger Suarez, Trevor Williams, B**** S*****, Matt Boyd, Tanner Houck, JP France … There’s a sleeper burried in there somewhere and his name is Ranger Suarez my friends.
People like to make fun of the old school stats like Batting Average and Earned Run Average. Yet, it’s the simple math which tells us everything we need to know. I don’t care about whiff rates or hard contact or xFIP regressing to the mean when I know that Ranger Suarez is not a 7.13 ERA guy and simple math says that he won’t lower that ERA unless one thing happens. He gets outs without giving up runs. Doesn’t matter if the expected fielding is one thing or another, it just means this is a SP who always does better away from Citizens Bank Park, and is avoiding a major heat wave in DC and drawing the start after his team just burned through a bunch of arms in a bullpen game. Now making his 5th start of the season, Ranger is built up to throw 100+ pitches, which equates into a 7 inning (21 out for those keeping score at home) start with minimal damage and the regression to his norm begins. $5700 on DraftKings for Suarez is the play.
OTHER PITCHING NOTES
- Gumby, aka, Guardians pitcher Triston McKenzie is back, and no he hasn’t added a single ounce of weight to his body yet. He made 3 rehab starts in Columbus going 10 innings allowing 5 ER, 3 HR and striking out 13. I wouldn’t expect too much out of him today and he’s not a free square ($8100) either.
- You go ahead and have fun with Michael Kopech
- Yes…. I see it. We all see it. Yes, I know there are two asians facing off in Citi Field on a Sunday. I’m fully aware of this. We’re gonna get to that.
MORE PLEASE
Rowdy Tellez, Christian Yelich, Jake Fraley, Stuard Fairchild
The Brewers and Reds, that’s where we are fishing once again today
Another hot as hell day alongside the Ohio River in Cincinnati and today the wind is blowing out to right which is the exact path in that stadium that already has a natural jet stream. Welcome Adrian Houser who has a history of puking on this field and Ben Lively and holy sweet baby Jesus if they hit the ball it’s gonna be leaving the yard.
KIKUCHI and SENGA visit NEW YORK
Daulton Varsho, Brandon Belt, Francisco Lindor, Thommy Pham, Pete Alonso
Two Japanese pitchers in Manhattan on a Sunday afternoon? Smells like an over to me if I ever heard one. Everyone knows Asians dont pitch well in day games, its the biological clock which messes them up and you are now smarter for knowing this, trust me.
Seriously though, this is another classic game stack smash spot at 2%, wind might be blowing in from the left but that’s just gonna reduce the distance on Pete Alonso and Vlad Guerrero’s homers down to doubles today.
The uh … ROYALS?
Salvy, Olivares, Waters
Kansas City is winning and they are doing it one of two ways. Either Singer gives them 6 innings and they win 4-2 with Salvy Perez providing a 3 run homer or they just go completely off in an 11-7 win with Salvy Perez providing a 3 run homer. EIther way, I am playing Salvy and a one off from the bottom of the order. Witt is in play only if you are not paying up for both pitchers.
CATCHER
We saw some catchers go off on Saturday, and I think it’s another good catcher day overall.
- Salvador Perez
- Tyler Stephenson
- Francisco Alvarez
FIRST BASE
- Rowdy Tellez
- Pete Alonso
- Vlad Guerrero Jr
- Brandon Belt
SECOND BASE
An always fun DFS challenge here as we have $2500 and hot garbage Kevin Newman who probably gets ownership if he leads off for the Reds simply because he has a pulse and is in a great game scenario. He sucks folks, he’s legit one step away from Chris Owings/Wilmer Difo status. Brice Turang should poke one out into the River today, take him in that game.
- Brice Turang
- Nick Maton
- Brandon Lowe
THIRD BASE
I am just going to leave this here. These two are facing very good ‘talent’ today and should each be about 2% owned with massive upside at a position which is pretty bleak elsewhere. I would be shocked for those of you who build lineups by hand if you click on a 3B first, so this comes down to your last two spots and if you can spend up you lock in on Jose Ramirez or if you are feeling gutsy, take Raffy Devers at $5700 against a SP who allows just .178 xSLG to lefties on the season because good players hit good pitching…. Period.
- Jose Ramirez
- Rafael Devers
…. Fine, you want a cheap 3rd option? Maikel Garcia, Royce Lewis or Kevin No-man, don’t do it.
SHORTSTOP
- Francisco Lindor
- Bo Bichette
- Trea Turner
- Bobby Witt Jr
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Schwarber, Kyle …. Leads off game with a solo homer, game ends 3-0.
- Christian Yelich
- Hunter Renfroe
- Max Kepler
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Jesus Sanchez
- Zach McKinstry
- Shohei Ohtani
- Adolis Garcia
OUTFIELD – Value
- Sir Thomas Pham
- Stuart Fairchild of Mine
- Edward Olivares
- Akil Baddoo
- Jose Ramirez – 3B – Cleveland Guardians – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Rowdy Tellez – 1B – Brewers
- Francisco Lindor – SS – Mets
- Salvador Perez – C – Royals
- Kyle Schwarber – OF – Phillies
- Hunter Renfroe – OF – Angels
- Brandon Lowe – 2B – Rays
- Jesus Sanchez – OF – Marlins
- BONUS ………….. Max Kepler – OF – Twins
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Blue Jays/Mets
- Brewers/Reds
- Angels/Astros
- Guardians/Twins
- Rockies/Royals
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 game.
- Mariners/Rangers
- Phillies/Nationals
- Athletics/Marlins
ML Targets …
- Rays -118
- Blue Jays +108
- Royals -134