Good news, we have both FanDuel and DraftKings included two 6:40 PM games on the MAIN slate tonight to bring the total up to seven games. Bad news, we have both FanDuel and DraftKings including the Royals and Marlins on the MAIN slate tonight.
WEATHER
No issues
TOP ARM(s)
Aaron Nola (DK: $10.2k)
Outside of Nola deciding he wants to pitch with his left hand or his head in the cloud tonight, there’s a low probability that he winds up struggling against the Tigers. They’re back to whiffing a good amount vs RHP, they don’t hit stuff which breaks very well and Nick Maton doesn’t exactly get me excited in the “revenge” narrative department.
SP2 CANDIDATES
Secondary choices tonight begin with Braxton Garrett (vs KC), Blake Snell (vs CHC) and the battle of JP Sears versus Johan Oviedo. None of which are solid plays here.
Blake Snell is the one you roster when you want to feel like you have a shot because he is the last pitcher going, pitches well at home and the Cubs are ready to get the heck out of San Diego after a wrap-around road trip (they go to Anaheim tomorrow). But Chicago has some power vs a LHP, so he’s not free and clear of damage for $9700.
Garrett to me is the risky chalk fade. I suspect he is popular vs Kansas City, but lots of profile concerns against their lineup and someone who has had to rely on strikeouts to hit value due to low PC’s is not going to run away with the slate.
JP Sears is someone I really like tonight. Pittsburgh isn’t hitting for much power, especially at home, and Sears has not struggled with command. He’s cheaper than Garrett, will strikeout fewer, but is for sure your contrarian pivot.
And then we have Jim Abbott’s son, yes, that Jim Abbott, the one handed lefty who threw a no hitter once. Seriously, ya’ll claim that Shohei Ohtani is some awesome pitcher, has he every thrown a no-hitter? I didn’t think so, this guy did it with one hand.
Anyways… His son’s name is Andrew or Andy, not to be confused with the kid from Toy Story, who probably is old enough to pitch now too but he spent all his time playing with little boy dolls and was too scared to beat the crap out of the heavy metal neighbor who no doubt owns the gym that Andy refused to go into during the COVID lock downs for fear of not having his mask on and getting sick.
If this feels like I am telling the Norm MacDonald Moth joke and just stalling on you then maybe I am, and if you don’t know the joke, please go Google it. I’ll get to the point here soon….
Anyways, he is the min price $4000 on DraftKings, facing Milwaukee and like his Dad, a lefty. Which means the strikeout potential is there and no, don’t do it, we aren’t going there. We dont use kids making their debuts, sorry.
Sooooooooooooooooooo, who’s the SP2?
Well, you won’t get killed with Snell, you won’t get killed with Garrett, you won’t get killed with Sears, but none of them are winning anything.
So unless you think Kyle Hendricks (eh, maybe), Adam Wainwright (eh, no) or the Royals long reliever will do something then you should just take Alek Manoah because you are out of options my friend.
MY SP2 PICK
JP Sears
CARDINALS
Jordan Walker, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Paul DeJong
Texas is the ‘hot’ team and probably popular vs Waino, but the star power of Arenado and Goldschmidt should carry the Cardinals early against Perez and the Rangers bullpen does have potential to give up some late inning runs as well. My guess is they do close the roof here, but boy if it opens they could drop 15+ runs tonight. Love the Cardinals overall today…
ASTROS
Alek Manoah has two scheduled starts this week, one tonight and the other vs Minnesota — both at home in hitter friendly Toronto. If ever there was a time for the Jays to slide him over to the IL for a mental reset, now would be it.
Ultimately though this works one of two ways for me, either I am dead wrong and Manoah gets right and back on track or we take advantage of him being out of shape and having zero confidence to pitch right now. Yordan/Tucker are the easy calls as lefty bats, but Bregman/Abreu/Pena have to get the heavy damage done for Houston. I like the Cards 1B-3B-SS combo more, because I do think Manoah can snap out at any time, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Houston have 4+ HR as a team today either.
CATCHER
- Salvador Perez
- Alejandro Kirk
- Jonah Heim
FIRST BASE
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Jose Abreu
- Nate Lowe
SECOND BASE
- Luis Arraez
- Tommy Edman (OF elig too, solid play there tonight)
- Owen Miller
THIRD BASE
- Nolan Arenado
- Alex Bregman
- Patrick Wisdom
SHORTSTOP
- Jeremy Pena
- Paul DeJong
- Bobby Witt Jr
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Yordan Alvarez
- Jordan Walker
- Kyle Tucker
- Bryce Harper
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Nick Castellanos
- Daulton Varsho
- Seiya Suzuki
OUTFIELD – Value
- Juan Yepez
- Joey Wiemer
- Jesus Sanchez
- Jordan Walker – OF – Cardinals – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – Cardinals
- Nolan Arenado – 3B – Cardinals
- Bryce Harper – OF – Phillies
- Yordan Alvarez – OF – Astros
- Jeremy Pena – SS – Astros
- Jonah Heim – C – Rangers
- Owen Miller – 2B – Brewers
- BONUS …. Nate Lowe – 1B – Rangers
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- STL/TEX
- KC/MIA
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 game.
- HOU/TOR … This game ends 6-4, total is 10.5. The way Manoah is going, you wait for the total to jump early in the game up to like 12/13 and then take that under…
ML Targets …
- Cardinals +108