Twelve (12) game MAIN slate today, as we have seen the sites go back to 7:05 PM lock without the Turbo slate games. So say farewell to Royals/Marlins, Tigers/Phillies and Twins/Rays. Pretty good Turbo slate in my mind, I like all 3 of those games to go over as well.
The Cincinnati Reds have promoted the #1 hitting prospect in Baseball, Elly De La Cruz to the big leagues. He is a super athletic switch hitting infielder (SS for now) who projects to be the next big star in a line of similar explosive athletes like Fernando Tatis, Oneil Cruz, Ronald Acuna, etc… He long like Oneil Cruz, has an explosive bat like Tatis and can run like Acuna. So let’s hope that this doesn’t turn into a Willie Mays Hayes situation where he runs like one but hits like shit if you know what I mean. He’s only $2,000 on DraftKings and I haven’t even bothered to look if he is on FanDuel yet, so I will assume that he won’t be there until the 4th of July. The Reds should let him hit leadoff and you can definitely take him and load him in tonight if you want. He’ll be a regular in this article.
WEATHER
Everything will play tonight, a few scattered showers in some games and some wind as well, but really nothing to worry about adjusting your lineups around.
There is also a massive amount of smoke in the atmosphere coming down from Canada, and while there could be massive amounts of Alek Manoah jokes I will pass on that for now. It’s related to some wildfires or something and it will make for very hazy and bad air conditions in New York and Philadelphia tonight, as well as somewhat in DC but the air in DC always sucks so who can really tell.
TOP ARM(s)
Logan Gilbert (DK: $9900, FD: $9800)
Joe Musgrove (DK: $7800, FD: $8300)
One tough start against the Yankees when they ambushed his four-seamer and got him rattled early does not mean we should pivot off him against a mediocre Padres lineup. His opponent (Musgrove) is usually very good at home in friendly PETCO and also $2100 cheaper on DraftKings, so this does setup a nice SP gamestack option if you want to lock in on ~40+ DK points from your SP’s and not sweat anything early. Both are solid on FD as well.
Musgrove actually is the one I should highlight a little more though. Since May 1st the Mariners have been the highest projected CSW% team in the league against starting pitching. This means that they will provide more strikes per PA than anyone else and all things put together we should get a great Musgrove start tonight.
SP2 CANDIDATES
Clarke Schmidt (DK: $7900) … Any rain in this one is going to be before first pitch, so he is not gonna risk being pulled in the 4th due to weather and Chicago has literally no power from the left side of the plate to exploit the short porch or his troubles with LHH.
OTHER PITCHING NOTES
I like Mitch Keller, he had a full 5 days off from his last 100+ PC start and is obviously getting the lowly Athletics today. Just think we have good options slightly cheaper, not that it matters too much, but it does weigh in slightly.
The Giants will be doing what every team, including the Rockies, should do more in Coors Field and using an opener. The problem is I would use a 2 inning opener and then go 4 from my “long” arm to get you into the 7th inning and then you manage from there with what you have. Never let a pitcher throw more than 4 innings in Coors Field. At any rate, Manaea probably pitches decently here out of the pen for the Giants, but it just means we go light on hitting versus using him or anyone in this scenario.
Those wheels on the James Paxton and Tommy Henry busses are going to fall off at some point, however they were both on the ‘next man up’ list for me tonight.
DODGERS
Freeman, Muncy, Outman, JD Martinez
The lefties should have some strong AB versus Luke Weaver, for as long as he can remain in the game. Add in that the wind is blowing out and the tiny park with a bullpen ERA over 6 of late and the Dodgers have 12-14 run upside better than anyone else today.
DIAMONDBACKS
Gurriel, Marte, Carroll, Pavin Smith
Following the data here on the Diamondbacks collectively having the best SP matchup against Jake Irvin — who we do have limited data on thus far in the bigs, however Arizona remains the most under-valued team in the big leagues. You do know they’re gonna be leading the NL West at the all-star break and make the playoffs, right? Half the reason, is a lineup which has depth without star power – something that leads to lots of big innings and I think they run a good amount tonight too.
ORIOLES
Rustchman, Mountcastle, Henderson
As I kept going through the positional top 3-4 bats I liked, the 2nd or 3rd always seemed to be an Oriole. The heavy fastball usage they see tonight could result in some long outs or solo homers and no team has been better on the road than Baltimore
METS
Nimmo, Lindor, McNeil, Baty
Gimme some Brett Baty magic here, he’s been cold (as has most of the Mets offense) but New York is hitting better away from home and right now they’re likely to go on a hot streak to make a push in this division. Buy low on the Mets
CATCHER
- Will Smith
- Adley Rutschman
- Sean Murphy
FIRST BASE
- Freddie Freeman … He has a shot to have a MASSIVE week this week. $5400 could be his low point.
- Ryan Mountcastle
- Shohei Ohtani … Play his HR prop if you dont use him in DFS, and if you do, probably at OF so you can also use Freeman.
SECOND BASE
- Ketel Marte … Both Marte’s look good today, Ketel though is likely to benefit the most from his team going off, so I would expect him to do damage off the bullpen here unless Jake Irvin wants to throw him a sinker down and in.
- Andres Gimenez
- Adam Frazier
- Jeff McNeil
THIRD BASE
- Max Muncy
- Josh Jung
- Gunnar Henderson
- Brett Baty
SHORTSTOP
Big reason to take EDL Cruz tonight? This is as bad as shortstop has been in a while.
- Elly De La Cruz
- Francisco Lindor
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Mookie Betts
- Corbin Carroll
- JD Martinez
- Christian Yelich
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Ronald Acuna Jr
- George Springer
- Masataka Yoshida
- Brandon Nimmo
OUTFIELD – Value
- Jason Heyward
- Starling Marte
- Pavin Smith
- Ketel Marte – 2B – Diamondbacks – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Max Muncy – 3B – Dodgers
- Mookie Betts – OF – Dodgers
- Freddie Freeman – 1B – Dodgers
- Adley Rutschman – C – Orioles
- Corbin Carroll – OF – Diamondbacks
- Elly De La Cruz – SS – Reds
- Starling Marte – OF – Mets
- BONUS …. Shohei Ohtani – DH – Angels
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Dodgers/Reds
- Mets/Braves
- Orioles/Brewers
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 game.
- Mariners/Padres
- Giants/Rockies
ML Targets
- Guardians
- Mets
- Orioles