You know, if we cannot have a Cubs game on a Friday afternoon the least we could have is a full 15 game slate and we are pretty close but will have to do without Rangers/Rays and Diamondbacks/Tigers. You laugh, but there are three playoff teams in there and then the Tigers, who are quickly fading away into the sunset.
WEATHER
No PPD risk tonight.
Baltimore, Philadelphia and NYY will have rain late in the night but the games should be clear to finish up without concern.
Wind blowing out to LF in Atlanta.
TOP ARM(s)
SHOHEI OHTANI (DK: $10.4k, FD: $10,000)
Lock on Ohtani for your Friday big slate chalk on FanDuel, and if he is below 40% then folks did it wrong. Ohtani at home is the good Ohtani, Ohtani below 11k is win the slate Ohtani and a high Swinging Strike rate team like Seattle? No debate here, Ohtani on both sites is SP1.
GERRIT COLE (DK: $11k, FD: $10.5k)
The Boston Red Sox are on a train straight for DFL in the AL East and by a lot of games. They started of 2023 competing but the combination of injuries and realizing that they roll out a bunch of bad hitters is quickly adding up. Expect Cole to have a dominant outing tonight, is it enough to push him above Ohtani though? No. But rolling both together on DraftKings will put you above the place line with 1 or 2 HR and not much else today.
SP2 CANDIDATES
MARCUS STROMAN (DK: $8700, FD: Too pricey, dont play there)
Stroman had two straight home starts with very pitcher friendly weather conditions and he went 17 IP against the Mets and Rays allowing 2 ER, 5 hits and striking out 11 in typical Stro-fashion. Then he got to visit PETCO park and shutout the Padres over six and now he gets the Giants out in the stadium that replaced the dumpster known as Candlestick? What a lucky run he is on right now. The Giants are hitting below .150 over the last week vs RHP starters and that includes their trip out to Coors Field. They’re straight dumpster trash.
The Italian (DeSclafani) is another option in this same game and he is honestly my second SP2 to pick.
OTHER PITCHING NOTES
I almost went to the Cease well for the first time this year. But I don’t believe the Marlins are to be picked on as much as we want to think they should be. In fact, I wouldn’t be shocked if they’re one of the better under the radar stacks tonight.
Jordan Montgomery will pitch a great game for the Cardinals tonight, do you want to play him instead of Stroman though? That’s the real decision here, because we have similar guys who just throw with different hands and have about 8 inches difference between them, okay and their skin color is different as well, but beyond that, same dude, literally same dude. J-Mont is $1400 cheaper on DK, that’s his upside vs Stro. His downside? Well, Elly and of course the fact that he is Jordan Montgomery.
A lot of guys who just dont give me confidence to go deep tonight, but someone who writes up 8-10 pitchers will make you think they could be in your mix, they should not be, and they include … Josiah Gray, AJ Smith-Shawver, Eury Perez, Tylor Megill
Don’t ask me about Adrian Houser, I’m not gonna do it.
ROYALS
Pasquantino, Pratto, Salvy
Death. Taxes. Steve Renner getting excited about the Royals in Fenway and Camden. Unfortunately I didn’t plan life well enough to be in attendance for tonight and my wife thinks we should attend some party for her former Boss tomorrow instead of going to watch Brady Singer pitch in Camden on a Saturday afternoon game. (Editors Note: Steve’s Wife is saving him from the horrific beat down that Brady Singer is going to get tomorrow after Baltimore bounces back from getting trounced tonight and hits about 5 homers off him) … I mean, what are we even doing here?
Anyways — great park shift for the Royals lefties and Salvy has history going to oppo Right CF when he hits in Camden, he just needs to sit back on a Tyler Wells change-up and drive it to the opposite field tonight to complete this stack.
TWINS
Polanco, Correa, Garlick
You know darned well that I have a hard time avoiding Kikuchi and the Twins are coming in certainly with their fair share of struggles right now, so it’s coming with a little hesitation.. Alright, it’s not really that much hesitation. Unleash fucking hell Minnesota and unleash Kyle Garlick please. There is ZERO reason to call him back up with Buxton out and not play him against Kikuchi. God did not create Yusei Kikuchi for you to not use Kyle Garlick against him … please, Twins. I beg you….
And oh yeah, Jorge Polanco is going 4-5 with two doubles today.
DODGERS
Betts, Freeman
Suarez is pitching well/better as we noted last weekend, but not well enough to avoid these two big hitters tonight. The Dodgers probably get a big hit from JD Martinez to help out as well if you want to go full stack.
BRAVES
Riley, Acuna, Olson
Tell me what is more Atlanta Braves than going absolutely OFF on the Mets only to turn around and get shutout by the Nationals on a Friday night at home as chalk? None the less, I have to admit that Austin Riley literally just pulled off the Undertaker Meme and a streaky hitter like him should not go ignored
CATCHER
Sorry, but there’s too many catchers here for me to not throw some love their way. 70% of the time this is just a punt position, tonight though it’s very good.
- Gary Sanchez … What’s better than the Kraken in Coors for sub 4k?
- Sean Murphy … Maybe 4300 Sean Murphy? WTF?
- Salvador Perez
- Matt Thaiss/Christian Vazquez … If you want a cheapie Matt Smack That Ass and Christian Vaginitis (Twins) are two guys who grade out very well for their price
FIRST BASE
- Vinnie Pasquantino – Friday Homer …
- Freddie Freeman – Saturday Homer …
- Matt Olson – Sunday Homer …
SECOND BASE
- Mookie Betts
- Jorge Polanco
- Ji hwan Bae
THIRD BASE
Not much of a Manny in Coors Fan, nor do I believe in Devers vs Cole tonight because nothing around Devers is worth it. Riley is the pay up guy here, after that it’s a pretty garbage spot overall.
- Austin Riley
- Brian Anderson
- Jace Peterson
- Donovan Solano … Fine, I’ll mention Donovan Solano. Yes, he hits LHP well. Yes, Kikuchi stinks. Yes, he will get pulled when they go to a RHP in the pen.
SHORTSTOP
Dear DraftKings… Why is Bobby Witt Jr 5700??? He’s hitting like a 4800 guy right now. Please fix. Meanwhile, here are Phillies fans when they see Phillie killer “Miguel Rojas” coming to the plate tonight…
- Miguel Rojas
- Elly De La Cruz … Back to SS only, but his price is up to $3700 now! Still cheap folks, still cheap.
- Willy Adames
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Kyle Schwarber
- Kyle Tucker
- Kyle Garlick
- Bryan De La Cruz … His name is not Kyle, sorry.
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Ronald Acuna Jr
- Juan Soto
- Anthony Santander … Colder than tits on a monkey. He should start to get rolling though.
OUTFIELD – Value
- Nick Pratto
- Jesus Sanchez
- Kevin Pillar
- Vinnie Pasquantino – 1B – Kansas City Royals – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Kyle Garlick – OF – Twins
- Gary Sanchez – C – Padres
- Jorge Polanco – 2B – Twins
- Jace Peterson – 3B – Athletics
- Miguel Rojas – SS – Dodgers
- Kyle Tucker – OF – Astros
- Bryan De La Cruz – OF – Marlins
- BONUS …………. Austin Riley – 3B – Braves
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Nationals/Braves
- Athletics/Brewers
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 game.
- Mariners/Angels
- Cubs/Giants
ML Targets
- Mets
- Royals
- Twins
- Astros
- Marlins
- Angels