We kick off the second half of the MLB season and I already have two major beefs with the scheduler today. First off, he has the Cubs at home on a Friday which is great, but why are the playing 8PM? We can’t get these lowsy players out to the field for an afternoon game to bring positive energy to the people of Chicago to start drinking early in mid July?
Meanwhile that’s not even close to the most mind boggling thing today. Why is there a random Padres/Phillies game at 6pm instead of 7pm and thus not on the MAIN slate tonight? Then why are they playing 2 tomorrow? Huh? Oh well, just lock in the Soto homers all weekend long folks. +400 is a steal tonight.
So all that said, a 14 game slate kicks things off for DFS.
SECOND HALF NOTES
These are the parts of my articles you really should be reading if you are a long term bettor, I am always just looking at things through no biased lens when I tell you my thoughts going forward and over the next 2-3 months I am going to find myself leaning on these thoughts now as to how I think the rest of the season plays out.
Here’s a few quick hits
- Pitching depth matters the most in the second half of the season. Hitting will go off one night and then completely disappear into ‘Dog Days of August’. This is where having depth in your bullpen as arms get tired and also in the rotation to prevent the bullpen from getting tired matters. A team who has guys going 7 IP starting 4 out of 5 days is going to go on a tear. A team who is patching it together as best possible is going to be in trouble.
- Someone is going to get on an insane (10, 11, 12, 13 game) winning streak in August. I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw someone rattle off something like 18 out of 19 hot.
AL East:
- Boston is going to play well under .500 the rest of the season.
- New York is just not good. I don’t think they can make a serious move at the deadline to change things around and I fear what would happen if Cole had to miss a couple weeks.
- Toronto should be able to make a surge and might be getting Ryu back. If they can pull some magic fairy dust and get Ryu-Manhoah pitching well then look out.
- Baltimore has the bullpen to hold off a big collapse, but they’re not gonna catch Tampa
AL Central:
- Nobody is good enough to win this division, but this is where you could see an out of nowhere winning streak from Cleveland.
- Chicago is showing signs of punting/mailing it in.
- Detroit and Kansas City just can’t.
AL West:
- Seattle is surging, they will take over the lead in this division only to give it back to Texas late in the year.
- Houston will fade.
- The Angels are done.
NL East:
- Philly, not the Mets or the Marlins will move up to hold #2. It might not happen until mid August, but they’ll get hot. Watch for them to add another SP either through a call-up (Andrew Painter is pitching already, watch out for him) or via a trade for some random arm (Giolito would be a nice add, just saying).
- Marlins won’t DIE, but I see more .500 ball.
- Mets might have a 6-0 week only to follow it up with a 1-5 week.
NL Central:
- Cincinnati will need reinforcements and they will get it from their starting pitching.
- I like the Cubs to finish 2nd here
NL West:
- San Diego makes a STRONG push.
- The Dodgers should be about 3 to 4 GB of the Diamondbacks right now, and yet they are tied. Sorry Arizona, it was a nice run.
- Bet against the Giants to lose series here on out.
- Do not bet against Colorado at home in August.
WEATHER
UPDATES: Mother Nature has reared her ugly head. The Rays/Royals has been PPD. Marlins/Orioles is gonna be delayed for sure and others could too.
We start off with some issues….
- Marlins at Orioles: Should get the game in unless storms just linger around forever. Good chance of a delay here though.
- Dodgers at Mets: Same story
- Red Sox at Cubs: Same deal. Could be nasty and after some Tornadoes the other day they could be cautious.
- Rays at Royals: Excessive heat and Hail and then they play the game.
- Nats at Cardinals: Who cares? Ok, its the same as the KC Game
Bold Take? All games play
FanDuel released their slate so early that they suddenly forgot how to make changes after they do so. And so Shohei Ohtani will only get hitting points on FD tonight even though he totes the mound vs Houston and I am bummed because he woulda been bad chalk there.
In the second half I hope to get back to the normal routine of doing just 3 pitchers and ranking them in order of preference overall and then providing my conclusive notes after that, rather than doing the SP1, SP2 dance…
MY THREE PITCHERS
Tyler Glasnow (DK: $10.3k / FD: $10k)
Seven days rest since an 88 pitch 2 hitter vs the good Braves lineup and now he gets the Royals? What’s the catch? No, seriously. What’s the catch here? KC might hit at some point in the second half and by some point I mean early September, but not now, not vs Glasnow who they had 12K’s against on June 25th. From a weather standpoint the concern would be a delayed start, but that’s minimal.
Kenta Maeda (DK: $7700 / FD: $7000)
In DFS GOLF I have a theory about West Coast Asian’s which I should probably amend to add Scottland to that list but I’ll save that for Mark Farris to handle. Does this carry over for MLB west coast asians? Asking for a friend and asking for someone who is going to take the cheese on a mid priced Kenta Maeda coming off his best start in a long time, so I guess I love him then tonight. You know, for a long time…
Corbin Burnes (DK: $8400 / FD: $9600)
DraftKings has started the second half of the season with a big ole plate of cheese on the table. I am going to bite it going against the Reds at home and not bothered with the second time in one week match-up scenario. The break should hurt Cincinnati for a few games here slowing down their pace and boosting strikeouts some. Burnes will have 8 of them tonight and then walk into the Brewers Front Office and demand a trade since he won’t be re-signing long term with them.
OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS
- Sandy A – In the second half your Sandy Alcantara’s and Alek Manoah’s of the world are going to rebound in a big way. Sandy should start that tonight, but with in game delay risk and being patient to wait and see it he’s probably an avoid tonight unless you get an all clear on weather.
- I want no part of Ohtani tonight
- Luis Castillo should be more popular than most of the guys I mentioned here at home vs the Tigers. Sneaky feeling that game has lots of offense in it.
I absolutely LOVE most road teams tonight. Want my twisted theory? Well, you’re gonna get it either way. The home teams have been at home with their family/spouses/etc. for the last few days and yeah they are ITCHING to get out and go to the ballpark, but it’s the road teams who got away on Thursday and got to go sleep in a peace and quiet hotel away from the demands of home and now can wake up, go down to the local coffee shop and just get ready for the game while the home Dad’s are like “damnit, I gotta do this and that, these chores suck, honey, I gotta go to the game, who the fuck am I facing? …”
Gimme some road hitters when in doubt today….
FAVORITE CORES …
Rays: Luke Raley & Wander Franco
There should be 1 or 2 “whoops” pitches from Royals SP Alec Marsh tonight. Stop me if you have heard this with a Royals young SP before, he has one pitch which can get whiffs and it’s his slider, which also gets crushed by lefties when it misses. Rays hit 3+ homers tonight.
Mariners: Julio Rodriguez & Teoscar Hernandez
Going 5 Mariners at home is stupid, do not do that, but pick from the top 5 to get 3 tonight. One of my second half predictions is that Seattle is going to surge, mostly backed by pitching long term, but I also believe Eduardo Rodriguez is NOT the guy we saw in April/May and more the June pitcher who should give up 4-5 ER per start.
Brewers: William Contreras & Christian Yelich
I know I said Cincinnati holds on and Milwaukee fades, but this is like an NBA game where one team comes out in the first 3 minutes of the second half and goes on an 8-0 run and you think oh man, they’re gonna take this game. And then they suck after that. So tonight Milwaukee’s bats against Graham Ashcraft get to put the ball in play a plenty…
GOTTA MENTION …
Atlanta – Oh hey, the Braves are on the Friday night slate at home and facing a Team Bullpen near 5 over the last 10 days. We should probably consider them, huh? Kopech needs to get his walks fixed again and a long lay-off and having to face this lineup shouldn’t help. Great RBI spot for Riley/Olson.
NY Yankees – They suck. Donaldson/Bader are those two guys I referenced above.
CATCHER
- William Contreras
- Cal Raleigh
- Kyle Higashioka
FIRST BASE
- CJ Cron … Big time 2nd half “Remember Me” candidate
- Freddie Freeman
- Yandy Diaz … Dont mind putting Luke Raley at 1B here from Tampa as well.
SECOND BASE
- Mookie Betts … It’s Friday
- Ketel Marte
- Ozzie Albies
THIRD BASE
- Eugenio Suarez
- Austin Riley
- Nolan Arenado
SHORTSTOP
Hate SS tonight. Not spending $6500 for Seager, I think Civale will pitch well in Texas today and the rest of the lineup doesn’t do enough to justify having him there.
- Wander Franco
- Anthony Volpe … Spacing in the OF should play EXTREMELY well for him. If the Yankees do not lead him off tonight they are morons. He’ll get a triple tonight.
- Joey Wendle
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Kyle Tucker
- Luke Raley
- Christian Yelich
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Julio Rodriguez
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr
- Corbin Carroll
OUTFIELD – Value
- Jose Siri
- Jesus Sanchez
- Jesse Winker
Luke Raley – OF – Rays – Chairman of The Dongers Club- NEW CHAIRMAN: Evan Longoria – 3B – Diamondbacks
- Kyle Tucker – OF – Astros
- CJ Cron – 1B – Rockies
- Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Mariners
- Mookie Betts – 2B – Dodgers
- Anthony Volpe – SS – Yankees
- Eugenio Suarez – 3B – Mariners
- William Contreras – C – Brewers
- BONUS …… Joey Wendle – 2B – Rays
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- White Sox / Braves
- Tigers / Mariners
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game.
- Guardians / Rangers
- Twins / Athletics
ML Targets
- Road teams