There are two sets of double headers today with both having the second game on the MAIN slate. Padres (Weathers) at Phillies (Walker) is one and the Rays (TBD) at Royals (Ragans) PPD make up is the other. Technically there is a THIRD double header because the Nationals/Cardinals are resuming last nights game today as well. The starters in the evening game there are supposedly going to be Irvin and Matz.
This is a very difficult weekend to navigate if just trying to bank on one spot because some teams will just play cold all weekend and others will magically get hot mid way through a game as they get some consistent PA’s.
WEATHER
Another ugly mix of spots out there, here are the games which all have risk tonight that need to be really checked closer to lineup lock. I believe all will wind up playing.
- Marlins/Orioles – Dangerous batch of Storms
- Giants/Pirates – Should clear and play
- Padres/Phillies – Same
- Brewers/Reds – Same
My main focus with pitchers on this slate is to get two good ones into your DK lineup. A novel concept obviously, but what I mean is the pay-up approach on both spots is the priority. Naturally, the first inclination is to just use Spencer Strider, but banking on near 13k for SP1 and then another 10k for SP2 is not what I mean tonight, so thus Strider will be a fade for me as his pitch-type K% isn’t strong enough in this matchup to justify that cost.
MY THREE PITCHERS
Framber Valdez (DK: 9,800 / FD: $10,700)
Put the Angels on no-hit alert today. A 7 day break for Valdez to re-charge and sans Trout his sinker action should tear up the Angels lineup. If he can avoid a mistake to Renfroe, this could be an 8 inning shutout performance. He’s definitely getting some run support as well.
George Kirby (DK: $9,300 / FD: $10,300)
Nice little offensive output for the Tigers last night, that’ll end today. Kirby got to throw an inning on Tuesday in the ASG, which was nice to keep his routine going and should pound the strikezone vs Detroit giving him a long outing with plenty of point accumulation.
Pablo Lopez (DK: $10,200 / FD: $10,900)
Pablo was one of the hottest pitchers before the all-star break and he is beating lineups he should beat, which is exactly what you get with Oakland. His blow-up risk is low tonight.
OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS
- I get it if you want to punt with a SP2 tonight to get some of my favorite CORE hitters who are pricey. I wouldn’t but if any of the DH teams are going to mail it in tonight it should be the veteran Cardinals and you could back Jake Irvin for $5,000 to give you 5 IP and a 12.
- Weather and the lefties for the Marlins (Arraez, Sanchez) are why I don’t like Gibson tonight.
- Andy Abbott gets another shot at the Brewers, this time in his home park. I believe his outing has to go better than up in Miller Park but I would not go here today.
- Cooper Criswell vs Cole Ragans in the 2nd game of the Rays-Royals DH tonight, which sounds like Country Music Festival, full with fireworks and excitement after the game.
9 times out of 10 I avoid double headers and think that they usually just move along quickly and lean towards unders. Not today. Not after everyone was off for a while and itching to get into a good routine offensively. Start with the DH games first tonight.
FAVORITE CORES …
Rays/Royals: B.Lowe, L.Raley, Arozarena (TB) / Witt, Perez, Isbel (KC)
I am writing this right as these two teams start G1 of the double-header, which should go way under. But the benefit of a double header after you haven’t hit all week is gonna help the offense in the second game tonight. Brandon Lowe being back for Tampa is massive, he is homering for sure if he doesn’t homer in the first game.
Padres/Phillies: Lineups TBD, but Soto & Bohm among the tops.
Anyone who has watched Baseball longer than 5 minutes could have watched G1 between these two and saw the Phillies offense waking up as they continued to leave men on base over and over and over again until finally breaking through late.
Nationals: Thomas, Candelario, Meneses
We’ll want to have a cheap lineup to back today with the high $ pitching required and the Nationals are perfect there. Load up on the RHH. Again, I like that they’re getting multiple AB today which is a reverse theory on double headers normally we go low in the 2nd game, but I expect more offense in this one.
OTHER NOTES …
Braves: Maybe a massive storm will roll through and they call the game and call the season for the White Sox. I doubt it though and I doubt Ozzie Albies finishes under 20 DK fpts today and would start builds around him or Brandon Lowe at 2B.
Giants: You gotta stomach the chance that they all get PH/swapped out, but it’s a good park for the top of the order lefties to run into cheap HR’s.
Coors: Better spot for Torres today. Him and Volpe is what I would trust, although I think the Rockies win again, so Bryant/McMahon/Cron/N.Jones is a better stack.
CATCHER
- Cal Raleigh
- Keibert Ruiz
- Salvador Perez – Validate if starting 2nd game.
FIRST BASE
- Matt Olson
- Joey Meneses
- CJ Cron
- Nick Pratto
SECOND BASE
Arguably my 3 favorite plays tonight all here.
- Ozzie Albies
- Brandon Lowe
- Gleyber Torres
THIRD BASE
- Ryan McMahon
- Alec Bohm
- Jordan Westburg
SHORTSTOP
- Willy Adames
- Mauricio Dubon
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Anthony Volpe
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Juan Soto
- Kyle Tucker
- Lane Thomas
- Jesus Sanchez
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Kris Bryant
- Luke Raley
- Ronald Acuna Jr.
OUTFIELD – Value
- Jack Suwinski
- Austin Hays
- Stone Garrett
- Juan Soto – OF – Padres – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Ozzie Albies – 2B – Braves
- Kyle Tucker – OF – Angels
- Jack Suwinski – OF – Pirates
- Joey Meneses – 1B – Nationals
- Willy Adames – SS – Brewers
- Keibert Ruiz – C – Nationals
- Alec Bohm – 3B – Phillies
- BONUS …………………… Jesus Sanchez – OF – Marlins
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Marlins/Orioles
- Rays/Royals
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game.
- Brewers/Reds
- Dodgers/Mets
- Astros/Angels
ML Targets
- Brewers
- Dodgers
- Nationals
- Rockies