After a weekend of doing well with slightly contrarian SP1 options I look for the offense to get going from my picks this week. There are 10 of this early week series which start off tonight that includes no Coors Field today and no games before 7pm either, which is very nice (for today).
WEATHER
SF/CIN: Chance of rain here lingering to cause a delay, but the game will play.
MY THREE PITCHERS
Logan Gilbert (DK: $9800, FD: $9900) …
The Mariners are one of my top teams in the second half to watch and a big reason will be their SP carrying them. If that’s going to come to fruition then my belief that Logan Gilbert is their true Ace of the staff must start off strong. He’s been good vs LHH with a 25% strike-out rate and has three pitches that get a 30% whiff rate on the season. If you ask me who finishes the night with the most strikeouts, Gilbert is my pick, and he will need to go 7 IP again to outlast Sonny Gray on the other side, who also should pitch well.
Paul Blackburn (DK: $6600, FD: $7400) …
I wouldn’t encourage using Blackburn on FD mostly because Gilbert is under 10k and has 50 point upside there. However, the Red Sox annual trip to Oakland is an annual fade of their offense for me. No matter who the players are they tend to go into the Coliseum and go ice cold. Blackburn did make an appearance facing 7 batters in one inning against Boston a week ago, but again I lean heavily on the park shift going to his advantage tonight as he has been good (enough) at home.
These two guys are my locked in 1-2 punch on DraftKings with honorable mention for Sonny Gray & Matt Manning.
Nick Pivetta (DK: $7300, FD: $7000)
Back in the starters saddle tonight once again and likely not with an opener before him. The shift into a big park should help Pivetta here as well and I would imagine he’s another popular pick for many today.
OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS
Promotions …
- Grayson Rodriguez is back in the bigs with the Orioles. I expect him to pitch extremely well in the second half, but see no point vs the Dodgers.
- The Pirates are promoting Quinn Priester, a 6’3 RHP who has a mediocre sinker. He’s a rookie. He’s a Pirate. Next question.
Lots of home teams who are going to be on the wrap-around tonight. An old theory where I favor home teams on Monday’s who were home over the weekend — when in doubt.
Tonight that applies for the Orioles, Pirates, Cubs, Athletics, Royals, Reds, Cardinals, Rangers, Angels and Mariners.
Class. What % of the teams going tonight does this apply too?
It’s 100% you noobs… Everyone… Great, thanks for not narrowing the process one bit right?
FAVORITE CORES …
ORIOLES — Ryan Mountcastle, Gunnar Henderson
Dodgers bullpen cannot be as bad in the 2nd half as it was in the first half, but it’s still fairly weak and Emmett Sheehan provides us with high BB% potential leading to men on base for Ryan Mountcastle to hopefully get the start to have a get right game and some very cheap bats in this lineup tonight.
GUARDIANS — Amed Rosario, Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Will Brennan
A rookie making his debut against a team who is known for not striking out much. Heaven for me my friends and in the world of stacking the Guardians getting an 8 or 12 spot in Pittsburgh early this week is almost a near lock. Love Cleveland….
REDS — Elly De La Cruz, Jake Fraley
While everyone else is getting out of the fast lane due to construction we are jumping over to the shoulder to ride on. The Reds came out and got shutdown by Milwaukee and now face another good SP In Logan Webb, but another sinker-baller should help this young offense be comfortable at the plate and folks Elly De La Cruz is just fine. Do not panic.
OTHER NOTES …
- Miami/St. Louis, Washington/Chicago the next best games to target today.
- NYY/LAA: I really don’t know what to make of Severino and the game vs the Angels. On one hand, we wanna say Sevvy is the better talent and should carve them up. On the other hand guys like Neto and Moniak are hitting well at the moment and Severino is NOT pitching well. I will lean on this game having some good offense production in it and will bet the over, but for DFS it’s a guessing game beyond Stanton/Ohtani.
CATCHER
- Adley Rutschman
- Bo Naylor
- Keibert Ruiz
FIRST BASE
- Josh Naylor
- Ryan Mountcastle
- Mike Moustakas … He is from LA and seems to be settling in VERY well back in his home town.
SECOND BASE
Back to a very weak individual spot tonight. Mookie used to tear up Camden before they pushed the wall back in LF, that should kill him there. Spot your stack here and fill in with 2B.
- Andres Gimenez
- Adam Frazier
- Christopher Morel
THIRD BASE
I am veyr torn here between Davis and Jose Ramirez with Jung and EDLC being your contrarian pivots to fade those two guys. I expect Davis to be very popular simply based on vegas driving everyones decisions today.
- JD Davis
- Jose Ramirez
- Joshua Jung … Great CH hitter faces a great CH.
- Elly De La Cruz
SHORTSTOP
- Gunnar Henderson
- Zach Neto
- Amed Rosario
- CJ Abrams
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Riley Greene
- Anthony Santander
- Lane Thomas
- Andrew McCutchen
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Steven Kwan
- Shohei Ohtani
- Jorge Soler
OUTFIELD – Value
- Mickey Moniak
- Will Brennan
- Gunnar Henderson – SS – Orioles – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Jose Ramirez – 3B – Guardians
- Keibert Ruiz – C – Nationals
- Mike Moustakas – 1B – Angels
- Giancarlo Stanton – OF – Yankees
- Andres Gimenez – 2B – Guardians
- Riley Greene – OF – Tigers
- Andrew McCutchen – OF – Pirates
- BONUS …………. JD Davis – 3B – Giants
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Cleveland/Pittsburgh
- Yankees/Angels
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game.
- Red Sox/Athletics
- Twins/Mariners
ML Targets
- Orioles
- Guardians
- Reds
- Athletics