It’s a glorious Saturday, the first day of July. We are officially in the 10 day stretch to the All-Star break which is slightly earlier this season and often a time when I am able to detach from Baseball or maybe like, a day or two and then come back. Usually when we go into the break it means a steady streak of cashing day in and day out. Last night was a good start to that run and so let’s keep it going today as I very much feel locked in on this weekends series.
We have a 7 game MAIN slate this afternoon in the 4PM window after 3 games going early and then 5 in the evening.
TBD as always on a Saturday night article (translation, yeah, I’ll do one)
WEATHER
Rain and Smoke in Pittsburgh. What a potent combination and this is the only one I could see getting PPD since it is a divisional game. There is risk in both SP.
Rain storms in Baltimore, game should play though.
Atlanta summer heat and storms.
TOP PITCHER
DYLAN CEASE (DK: $8000 / FD: $10300)
In the DFS world the term “smash” is way overused and a day game in Oakland usually has offense with it, but there’s no path by which I don’t see Cease continuing his late run of doing extremely well and pushing towards double digit strikeouts.
If you are an avid reader of the Dongers Club, I applaud you, and you should also know why Cease has turned things around by facing the Marlins, Dodgers, Rangers & Angels. It’s clear folks, he is the new Bauer in that he does well versus teams who haven’t seen him enough to know you just need to be patient and not chase. Oakland is not that team. Lock him in.
SP2 OPTION(s)
JUSTIN VERLANDER (DK: $8300 / FD: $8800)
I’ll bite here on Verlander at this price mostly because one alt option Kyle Bradish, has storm/weather concerns and a surging Twins team in a park they definitely fit well in. JV is pitching well in Citi Field, you’ll get 2.5x from him today for sure on DraftKings.
OTHER PITCHING CONSIDERATIONS
- Nate Eovaldi pitches well and is best pivot off Verlander IMO.
- Eury Perez has been fantastic in his rookie season and now he gets the white hot Braves after they hit so many home runs the fireworks caused more smoke than Canada. So naturally the Braves will just put up a 2 spot today right? I don’t see why we would take this risk as a single lineup player, but anyone who wants to be the smartest guy in the room has to give serious consideration to the fact that his slider could get 5+ strikeouts.
Don’t fall for the trap implied run total bullshit today on the White Sox and Mets of all teams. They’re boosted simply based on the SP match-up and the fact that the weather is warm so we have higher totals out there.
This slate definitely has plenty of 7 to 8 run explosion potentials from teams with HR boosts out there as well, but don’t automatically assume you need a 5 man stack to win today, it’s a nice spread em out smack em out slate.
MARLINS
Arraez, De La Cruz, Chisholm
This is more than “teams who got destroyed the next day” theory, it’s attacking old Man Morton after we trusted him last week and now he has extreme heat & a good Marlins lineup with nice history against him.
OTHER GAME NOTES
Nationals vs Phillies
WSH: Dominic Smith
PHI: Alec Bohm, Trea Turner
… The Phillies & Zack Wheeler should win but how much Phillies offense though is the question. Gore’s confidence is extremely high right now, so the only run could come from the homer he gives up to the Chairman today (HINT HINT) or if his curve ball is just off and he has no confidence in it then we’re going to see the Phillies rock him out and they win 6-0.
Twins at Orioles
MIN: Kiriloff, Correa, Buxton
BAL: Mullins, Hays, Rutschman, Henderson
… The ball JUMPS out of Camden Yards in these 4pm summer games and the Humidity is gonna be extremely high with wind out to LF. I expect Bradish to pitch well, he has really molded into good form for the Orioles but there are still homers to be given up and probably one to either Kiriloff or Correa/Buxton.
Baltimore is the better stack. Mullins has hit some unlucky shots lately, I expect him to poke one out off Ober, we can build around him and Austin Hays who is very sneaky given Ober’s bad RvR reverse splits.
CATCHER
Don’t love a ton here today
- Yasmani Grandal
- Adley Rutschman – Build him into an Orioles stack or pair with Mullins
- Whichever 2k-3k catcher your heart desires…
FIRST BASE
- Alex Kiriloff
- Dominic Smith
- Pete Alonso
SECOND BASE
- Luis Arraez
- Elvis Andrus
- Jeff McNeil
THIRD BASE
- Alec Bohm (Can be used on DK at 1B as well, 3B is a little deeper)
- Gunnar Henderson
- Jake Burger
- Royce Lewis
SHORTSTOP
Lord help me on the Corey Seager fade here, but the price is too steep against Hunter Brown and while he might do damage off the pen, I prefer the Turner/Lindor/Correa multi-hit potential today. Turner should hit Gore well much like Bohm.
- Trea Turner
- Francisco Lindor
- Carlos Correa
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
OF is by far the deepest position this afternoon. Lots of guys in good form right now, including that kid who leads off for the Braves. He seems pretty good, no? All total, this has the most upside today for the high $ guys and with pitching being priced flat, you can fit in the studs here.
- Cedric Mullins
- Bryan De La Cruz
- Luis Robert Jr … No reason to be 4600 on DK
- Ronald Acuna Jr.
OUTFIELD – Mid Range
- Christian Yelich … Very quietly hitting well right now
- Jazz / Soler
- Eddie Rosario
- Kyle Tucker
OUTFIELD – Value
- Jack Suwinski
- Ezequiel Duran
- Thomas Pham
- Corey Dickerdong
- Alec Bohm – 3B – Philadelphia Phillies – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Elvis Andrus – 2B – White Sox
- Christian Yelich – OF – Brewers
- Dominic Smith – 1B – Nationals
- Bryan De La Cruz – OF – Marlins
- Cedric Mullins – OF – Orioles
- Francisco Lindor – SS – Mets
- Yasmani Grandal – C – White Sox
- BONUS ………… Joc Pederson – OF – Giants
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
Honestly, just about every game has over vibes…
- Twins/Orioles, final score 8-7
- Marlins/Braves, Marlins cover the over themselves
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game.
- Astros/Rangers … better to take an alt line, don’t assume you are clear if it’s 2-0 through 6 either…
ML Targets
High Confidence
- Orioles
- Rangers
- Marlins
- White Sox
Medium Confidence
- Phillies
- Pirates
The Mets
- Mets