The Dongers Club – July 20th

← The Dongers Club hub  ·  Daily MLB home run picks & DFS, since August 2020. Browse the archive or see how DCPA works.

This fine Thursday while The Open is on in the morning gives us Noon/Early afternoon Baseball as there is a 7 game MAIN slate and then a small and quiet 3 game night slate tonight that features the Orioles and Rays on it, the Cardinals in Wrigley and Houston at Oakland.   WEATHER Rain will roll in to Cincinnati at some point, but it shouldn’t be too heavy and shouldn’t cause this game to not finish.   MY THREE PITCHERS PABLO LOPEZ (DK: $10,200, FD: $10,400) / GEORGE KIRBY (DK: $8300, FD: $9700) Classic mid-week day game out in Seattle which you forget to bet the under on pre game and then see it’s 1-0 through 4 innings and you wanna jump on that U4.5.  We’re gonna go back to where the ball has been carrying well and take a risk on both of these guys today. Lopez finally had his rough outing last week against Oakland, but overall 6 of his last 7 starts he has gotten 30% or better CSW rates and the Mariners, well, they’re still striking out folks.  Kirby is my sneaky favorite in this game to slow down a HR happy Twins lineup. CORBIN BURNES (DK: $8500, FD: $9300) I do not expect Burnes to be as dominant as he was vs the Reds, therefore his price is about the right spot, but I do expect him to get through 6 innings, keep the Phillies from scoring more than 2 runs and still get 7 strikeouts or so.   OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS I have no issue with Strider today, I just cannot work it to justify building him and one of the cheap SP’s. Greinke will get you 6-8 points.  Why bother. Michael Lorenzen wont make it out of the 5th inning. More like Jose Quinta-na-na-na-na-na-na-na-na-hey-hey-hey-good-bye and Michael NoPech… So yeah, don’t go cheap and cute.   FAVORITE CORES … This is a one off slate, and the chalk today isn’t going to be that strong in my mind.  The Giants/Reds could get some attention due to being in the best park for offense, same could be said for the Braves/Diamondbacks but those are very good pitchers that most will not bother with going against. I would imagine the Twins pop off a good deal, they are cheap and they are hot, but they are also a team I expect to pack their bags and…...

Keep reading — and get the full war room.

The rest of this breakdown is for members. A subscription unlocks the entire Daily Ambush platform:

  • Command Center — your entire slate on one screen
  • Tier-graded stacks (A/B/C) with heatmap and pair analysis
  • Ambush Intel — named AI agents tracking live P/L, every sport
  • Batter vs. pitcher pitch arsenals, xwOBA splits, BvP history
  • Lineup optimizer with pro stack rules and exposure controls
  • SIM Matrix — Monte Carlo simulation engine

View Membership Options Already a member? Log in