This fine Thursday while The Open is on in the morning gives us Noon/Early afternoon Baseball as there is a 7 game MAIN slate and then a small and quiet 3 game night slate tonight that features the Orioles and Rays on it, the Cardinals in Wrigley and Houston at Oakland.
WEATHER
Rain will roll in to Cincinnati at some point, but it shouldn’t be too heavy and shouldn’t cause this game to not finish.
MY THREE PITCHERS
PABLO LOPEZ (DK: $10,200, FD: $10,400) / GEORGE KIRBY (DK: $8300, FD: $9700)
Classic mid-week day game out in Seattle which you forget to bet the under on pre game and then see it’s 1-0 through 4 innings and you wanna jump on that U4.5. We’re gonna go back to where the ball has been carrying well and take a risk on both of these guys today.
Lopez finally had his rough outing last week against Oakland, but overall 6 of his last 7 starts he has gotten 30% or better CSW rates and the Mariners, well, they’re still striking out folks. Kirby is my sneaky favorite in this game to slow down a HR happy Twins lineup.
CORBIN BURNES (DK: $8500, FD: $9300)
I do not expect Burnes to be as dominant as he was vs the Reds, therefore his price is about the right spot, but I do expect him to get through 6 innings, keep the Phillies from scoring more than 2 runs and still get 7 strikeouts or so.
OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS
- I have no issue with Strider today, I just cannot work it to justify building him and one of the cheap SP’s.
- Greinke will get you 6-8 points. Why bother.
- Michael Lorenzen wont make it out of the 5th inning.
- More like Jose Quinta-na-na-na-na-na-na-na-na-hey-hey-hey-good-bye and Michael NoPech…
- So yeah, don’t go cheap and cute.
FAVORITE CORES …
This is a one off slate, and the chalk today isn’t going to be that strong in my mind. The Giants/Reds could get some attention due to being in the best park for offense, same could be said for the Braves/Diamondbacks but those are very good pitchers that most will not bother with going against.
I would imagine the Twins pop off a good deal, they are cheap and they are hot, but they are also a team I expect to pack their bags and get home early today.
This leads us into the journey land of looking at attacking Taijuan Walker with Milwaukee, Jose Quintana with White Sox or using bad teams against bad pitchers like the Mets vs Kopech or the Tigers vs old man Greinke.
Bor-ing.
No, my friends, we go north of the border today. We go to the Rogers Center, the Sky Dome, the land of George Springer hitting lead off bombs and Blake Snell getting shell-shacked by the Jays.
Toronto Blue Jays
- Springer, Bichette, Vladdy, Espinal
CATCHER
- William Contreras
- Patrick Bailey
FIRST BASE
- Wilmer Flores
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr
SECOND BASE
- Ozzie Albies
- Santiago Espinal
- Edouard Julien
THIRD BASE
- Jake Burger
- Elly De La Cruz … Don’t be a box score reader. When he’s getting contact its still coming off very hot.
- Matt Chapman
SHORTSTOP
- Beaux Bichette
- Frankie Lindor
- Bobby Witt Jr.
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- George Springer
- Juan Soto
- Brandin Nimmo … The way Kopech walks guys and him leading off, he could get on, steal 2nd and score and pay off.
- Christian Yelich
OUTFIELD – Value
- Starling Marte
- Zach McKinstry
- George Springer – OF – Toronto Blue Jays – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Christian Yelich – OF – Brewers
- Bobby Witt Jr – SS – Royals
- William Contreras – C – Brewers
- Ozzie Albies – 2B – Braves
- Wilmer Flores – 1B – Giants
- Elly De La Cruz – 3B – Reds
- Juan Soto – OF – Padres
- BONUS ……………………… Bo Bichette – SS – Blue Jays
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Padres/Blue Jays
- White Sox/Mets
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game.
- Twins/Mariners
- Diamondbacks/Braves
ML Targets
- Reds
- Blue Jays
- Mariners