Ladies and Gentlemen. We have a glorious Friday slate tonight which includes 11 total games and excludes the three turbo games as well as the glorious late July, Friday afternoon Cubs home game in Wrigley Field.
For your menu tonight there’s no games which are on the MAIN slate that are Apple TV+ games, thank the lord. Sadly that Cubs game is on AppleTV for some unknown reason. But the menu does include the Royals and Yankees, one of these teams has won a World Series in the past decade and the other traded away Jay Buhner, who hit 30 HR and 100 RBI and had a rocket for an arm – for KEN PHELPS!
It’s Asian Pitcher night again, Kodai Senga is in Boston, Shohei Ohtani is at home vs the Pirates and lord have mercy, Yusei Kikuchi is back in Seattle against his former team in what could feel like a home game for the Blue Jays as most of that area roots for them over the Mariners. The real question here though is will anyone actually stake claim to Kikuchi and root for him? We can only hope the Mariners play BOTH Tom Murphy and Cal Raleigh tonight back to back in the lineup for the Catcher(s) vs former Pitcher narrative.
Lance Lynn, Michael Soroka and Clarke Schmidt also go tonight, three random guys who most definitely, are not Asian.
WEATHER
NYM at BOS – Chance of T-Storms here. Probably okay to get the game in unless they are extremely violent at the exact wrong time.
MY THREE PITCHERS
FRAMBER VALDEZ (DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.2k)
I won’t be using Ohtani until August and that has been consistent with him the past couple of years post-ASB, which is even more strong now with all the trade rumors out there. I don’t care if he plays Jack Sparrow and Elizabeth Swann tonight, he’s not gonna get a recommendation from me today.
Framber though? Against Oakland? Yeah, I’ll go here. He’s had a ton of starts versus them in his career, many have been dominant and tonight on a late night in the Coliseum I would be shocked if he didn’t roll out a 7 inning 1 hit performance.
JOE RYAN (DK: $10.6k, FD: $10k)
Mid range SP options tonight on both DraftKings and FanDuel are bad, really bad. It is a land of which 60% of them are going to be somewhere between 7 and 11 DK FPTS, 20% of them will be negative and the other 20% will make you think they are going up above 13 DK fpts but barely get to 16…
So, being someone who has more success when I take the safe route on pitching, I would advise you to back Joe Ryan at home since he only has 3 hitters to really be concerned with today and one of them in my mind is Andrew Benintendi. Why Ryan over Ohtani? See above.
ALEC MARSH (DK: $5000) & CLARKE SCHMIDT (DK: $6200)
It feels awesome to pick on the Yankees with a 5k pitcher. It feels terrifying to do it with a Royals pitcher who is coming off just his 3rd career start and one where he probably set a career high in strikeouts.
The Yankees at home are also sketchy of doing some weird stuff, but if ya wanna just punt the garbage mid range SP options tonight I wouldn’t think you’ll get burned going here or with Clarke Schmidt for $6200 on the other side.
OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS
- Alright, gun to Taysom Hill’s knee if you asked me to pick a SP between $7000 and $10,000 on DraftKings, my answer would be … Ranger Suarez ($8000) … You will need him to be comfortable with just taking 12 pitch innings to accrue points with ground ball outs over the strikeouts.
- So, about Kikuchi… The Mariners strike out a ton, lefty, righty, doesn’t matter. And with Yusei comes obviously a SP who lives and dies with the whiffs on his fast-balls. I expect the walks to be an issue and the Mariners to have a 3-run homer here early, so I will pass but do note he finishes with 5-6 strikeouts or more.
- Johan Oviedo is tempting, I don’t like much in the Angels offense tonight.
FAVORITE CORES …
BRAVES
Marcell Ozuna, Orlando Arcia, Eddie Rosario
The Braves just find a way to put up offense and they find a way to do it with the long-ball. This is a park I have always liked for doubles and gap hitters, but we love Marcell Ozuna when he is in Miller Park. The last 8 years he has gone there he has homered at some point and in a RvR match-up he tends to do well. I expect a mid-game HR when Peralta is near 80-90 pitches and he gives up back to back homers to (whoever hits in front of him) & Ozuna. Since Atlanta is on the road, I would employ the bottom of the order/cheap Braves strategy — kinda like that night when they were in Cleveland and Michael Harris went off — but maybe tonight it’s Eddie Rosario
GIANTS
Michael Conforto, Mike Yastrzemski, Patrick Bailey
The Nats’ bullpen has zero confidence right now, Jake Irvin hasn’t shown ability to miss many bats, it’s warm. The Giants could very easily put up a 10 spot today.
PHILLIES
Stott, Harper, Schwarber
Let’s play the Lefties in Cleveland roullette wheel this weekend folks. Place your bets on who hits one Friday (Stott), who hits one Saturday (Schwarber) and who hits two Sunday (Harper)
CATCHER
- Cal Raleigh / Tom Murphy … I doubt both play, but they have DH’d Raleigh some in the past.
- Patrick Bailey
- Francisco Alvarez
FIRST BASE
- Alex Kiriloff … Someone needs to poke DraftKings. This is a Chris Owings level pricing effort on a player in the perfect LvR split scenario against Lance Fricken Lynn…
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr … We might be witnessing the start of a Vladdy 6-7 game homer streak.
- Christian Walker
SECOND BASE
- Bryson Stott
- Edouard Julien … Very similar deal here as Kiriloff. Cheap and in a great split vs the SP
- Mookie Betts … It’s Friday Night Mookie in Texas. Light em up.
THIRD BASE
- Eugenio Suarez
- Justin Turner
- Spencer Steer
- Austin Riley
SHORTSTOP
- Corey Seager
- ADD: Chris Taylor (DK)
- Willy Adames … Splits have been MUCH better at home
- Orlando Arcia
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Marcell Ozuna
- Michael Conforto
- George Springer
- Max Kepler
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Kyle Schwarber
- Bryce Harper
- Julio Rodriguez
- Luis Robert Jr.
OUTFIELD – Value
- Jack Suwinski
- Mike Yasztremski
- Dominic Canzone … I like this kid a good amount, and he has an awesome last name. How do you read it and not think Calzone?????
- Joey Gallo
- Marcell Ozuna – OF – Atlanta Braves – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Willy Adames – SS – Brewers
- Eugenio Suarez – 3B – Mariners
- Cal Raleigh – C – Mariners
- Christian Walker – 1B – Diamondbacks
- Mookie Betts – 2B – Dodgers
- Michael Conforto – OF – Giants
- Max Kepler – OF – Twins
- BONUS ….. Bryson Stott – 2B – Phillies
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Giants/Nationals
- Dodgers/Rangers
- Braves/Brewers
- Pirates/Angels
- Blue Jays/Mariners
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game.
- Royals/Yankees
- Astros/Athletics
ML Targets
- Diamondbacks
- Mets … Really like Mets ML tonight, send help pls.
- Rangers
- Braves
- Pirates