Since there is no Coors Field today both sites have the same amount of games — which is 10 — for the Main Slate.
This is a pivot/be different kinda slate from an offensive perspective. We have a ton of openers going and then we have a bunch of sneaky veterans who normally would fit perfectly into the Sunday Sleeper profile but I just can’t pull the trigger on any of them.
Sunday’s are the most chalky day when it comes to people blindly following Vegas totals and I think they all get burned today, so that’s the number one thing you should ignore when building lineups.
WEATHER
Perfect. Absolutely perfect. Mid 80’s, no wind, no rain. Just perfect.
MY NUMBER ONE
JESUS LUZARDO (DK: $10.8k, FD: $10k)
There shouldn’t be a single person today who doesn’t default into Jesus Luzardo as a primary pick. It’s a Sunday South Beach narrative with the Rockies of all teams. And after him the choices are a massive heaping pile of crap which includes Nola vs Cleveland (nah), and two dorks fighting it out in Target Field that I’ll get too below. Luzardo should roll.
SECONDARY OPTIONS
Taj Bradley (DK: $7600, FD: $8000)
Baltimore saw Bradley a month ago down in the Tampa Bay regional COSTCO Warehouse and they struggled versus him, they should do better today specifically with good games from Henderson, O’Hearn and Santander, but he too like Gore will get enough whiffs to give him a good score.
MacKenzie Gore (DK: $8300, FD: $8800)
My love child, Mr. Gore is the second southpaw I will roster today after Luzardo. The Giants will be heading back home after this game and aside from a bunch of HR lately (playing in Cincy helps) they’re collectively hitting around the Mendoza line post the ASB with a near 30% strikeout rate. Any SP2 you ride today has to have ability to get 7 strikeouts otherwise it’s a blind click and hope for a positive score.
Gore can do that. In fact, I believe he can finish SP1 as well.
SUNDAY SLEEPER
MARTIN PEREZ
What.. You want me to actually provide justification? Look. Here’s the justification. The alternative option was Jordan Lyles. I love some premium hitters today as one offs and so punting SP2 is the path for me here.
OTHER NOTES
- Lucas Giolito and Bailey Ober square off in a battle of guys that you would think give you 5-6 IP with 5-6 K and 2-3 ER allowed each. Giolito is coming off a horrible start vs the Mets, which he can’t possibly be as bad today with but I expect both offenses to have solid games and they’re plenty familiar with each other from a history standpoint, which always leans towards the hitters advantage. I’m passing on these guys.
FAVORITE CORES …
ROYALS
Witt, Perez, Garcia, Melendez
I told you I am going different today & Luis Severino is probably a chalky SP to get smacked around in warm Yankee Stadium. My Royals suck ass, but they’re gonna win today. Take that to the bank and I’m very sure of a good game from Witt.
PHILLIES
Harper, Schwarber, Marsh
Peyton Battlefield, Xzavion Curry, Ricky Vaughn…. Doesn’t matter what the Guardians do decide to do with a bullpen game today, Mr. Harper is not leaving town without his homer and neither is the way too cheap Sunday Kyle Schwarber for $4600…
DIAMONDBACKS
ARI – Walker, Gurriel, Rivera
For Arizona, they get to beat the face in on former Diamondback Luke Weaver & Corbin Carroll at $6k feels like a lot since Weaver always gives up power to RHH so Walker/Gurriel/Rivera are preferred over the young stud.
CATCHER
- Salvador Perez or Freddy Fermin
- Yan Gomes
- Ray Guy, Reggie Roby, Thomas Morstead … If you do not get this, we are not friends.
FIRST BASE
Harper at 1B the rest of the season should help building Phillies stacks when they are going to be able to smack around 5+ homers. I don’t think they’ll go full insane today but he and Schwarber together are an optimal start.
- Bryce Harper
- Christian Walker
- Luke Raley
SECOND BASE
After a garbage spot last night this is a good position today. Brandon Lowe showing up out of nowhere on as Sunday to homer vs the Orioles is as timely as people rolling their eyes when I tout the Royals out of nowhere.
- Brandon Lowe
- Brendan Donovan
- Michael Massey
THIRD BASE
If Nola is not going to break the slate then one has to assume it’s Jose Ramirez who gets on base and causes fits for the Phillies, no?
- Jose Ramirez
- Maikel Garcia
- Nolan Arenado
SHORTSTOP
Nobody is talking about how CJ Abrams is out performing a bunch of SS that are normally priced in the 5k range. Since July 1st, Abrams has scored 195 DK points in 15 games while Trea Turner has scored 119 DK points in 17 games. Turner is $5500, Abrams is $3300. It’s a fucking joke. All that said and yeah, Bobby Witt Jr is taking Severino deep, so he (who is also cold) is the #1 here.
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- CJ Abrams
- Carlos Correa
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Kyle Schwarber
- Marcell Ozuna … He hit a couple to the wall last night…. Now he faces Julio Teheran? Slump buster time.
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- MJ Melendez … Price and the short porch makes him viable.
- Anthony Santander
- Andrew Benintendi
- Ronald Acuna Jr.
OUTFIELD – Value
- Zeke Duran
- Max Kepler
- Brandon Marsh
- Sal Frelick
- Bobby Witt Jr. – SS – Kansas City Royals – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Harper, Bryce – 1B – Phillies
- Kyle Schwarber – OF – Phillies
- Will Smith – C – Dodgers
- Marcell Ozuna – OF – Braves
- Jose Ramirez – 3B – Guardians
- Brandon Lowe – 2B – Rays
- Anthony Santander – OF – Orioles
- BONUS …. Christian Walker – 1B – Diamondbacks
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Royals/Yankees … Royals are hanging 6 today folks, deal with it!
- Orioles/Rays
- Phillies/Guardians
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game.
- Braves/Brewers
ML Targets
- Royals
- Rangers
CHALKY SPOTS TO FADE
- Dodgers: Only love Will Smith and he might sit…
- Yankees: Who can you honestly back with confidence?