Very lovely eight game slate we have here on the next to last Monday of July. One that bring us three divisional series and a few 1st Basemen who are popping off quite a bit today for some obvious reasons. First is Paul Goldschmidt going back to Arizona and second is Joey Votto going into Milwaukee, a place he has absolutely LOVED hitting in his career.
WEATHER
No issues tonight.
MY NUMBER ONE
YU DARVISH (DK – $9400, FD – $10k)
Trust Darvish here with a very young bottom of the lineup from the Pirates to get him easily through the order twice and allow him to pitch around Reynolds/McCutchen/Santana if he has too. I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw vintage Yu with a 10 strikeout game.
SECONDARY OPTIONS
JON GRAY (DK – $8700, FD: $8800)
Until Yordan Alvarez is officially back in the lineup and also without formerly good Jose Altuve this Astros lineup CAN be attacked despite the stigma that you don’t wanna use SP vs Houston. They carry a 27% strikeout rate vs RHP over the last week, are still rolling out Jose Abreu in the heart of the order and Gray has owned Bregman and Tucker historically.
JOSE BERRIOS (DK – $9200, FD: $9800)
My sleeper pick today, mainly a pivot off Darvish if you want someone contrarian instead.
OTHER NOTES
Both Ryan Yarbrough and Quinn Priester will be good enough to give you 2x today, but that’s not really anything flashy from either. They are more guys to not donkey chalk stack against them.
Luis Castillo and Kenta Maeda in a warm Target Field after both teams have seen each other recently feels like a firework special. If I am wrong here, this game will finish 2-1 and a SP game stack will work, but I feel good about avoiding both guys today.
FAVORITE CORES …
CARDINALS
Goldschmidt, Contreras, Arenado, Gorman
Goldy back in Zona. Arenado back in the NL West and road catchers in Chase Field. A great way to kick off the MLB week by getting some red-birds in the game where most will want Snakes against Waino (which isn’t a bad spot either) … And before anyone asks, yes I believe Contreras will suit up tonight after sitting out Sunday. If he doesn’t then take his replacement.
ROCKIES
Jurickson Profar, Ezequiel Tovar, CJ Cron
If Colorado is going to hit Corbin (they will) then the top of the order is going to do the work here. I worry about HR upside from CJ Cron who has been nursing a bad back and Randal Grichuk is a Sunday guy I don’t think he is going yard today. Rather look for the guys who should get on base and score a couple of times like Profar/Tovar
MARINERS vs TWINS
There’s additional value in this game. DraftKings is on sleep mode with changing algo on pricing so anyone who is expensive will remain expensive and cheap guys remain cheap.
I love Teoscar Hernandez and Alex Kiriloff specifically and believe this game to go over despite the perceived decent SP matchup.
CATCHER
- Willson Contreras
- Cal Raleigh
- Jonah Heim
FIRST BASE
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Nathaniel Lowe
- Joey Votto
SECOND BASE
- Nolan Gorman
- Brendan Donovan
- Marcus Semien
THIRD BASE
- Nolan Arenado
- Eugenio Suarez
- Emmanuel Rivera
SHORTSTOP
- Ezequiel Tovar
- Amed Rosario
- Bobby Witt Jr.
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Daulton Varsho … Contrarian 1% HR here? I think Jays might get some ownership but Varsho is the key bat from them.
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Jurickson Profar
- Alex Kiriloff
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Corbin Carroll
- Julio Rodriguez
- Lars Nootbar
- George Springer
OUTFIELD – Value
- Travis Jankowski
- Leody Tavares
- Jordan Walker
- Willson Contreras – C – Cardinals – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – Cardinals (Backup Chairman)
- Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Mariners
- Eugenio Suarez – 3B – Mariners
- Alex Kiriloff – OF – Twins
- Nolan Gorman – 2B – Cardinals
- Xander Bogaerts – SS – Padres
- Daulton Varsho – OF – Blue Jays
- BONUS ….. Nate Lowe – 1B – Rangers
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Cardinals/Diamondbacks
- Rangers/Astros
- Mariners/Twins
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game.
- Reds/Brewers
- Royals/Guardians
- Pirates/Padres
- Blue Jays/Dodgers
ML Targets
- Rockies
- Mariners
- Rangers
- Blue Jays