Everyone is playing today, which is great news after most of the league had Thursday off to sit at home and watch Shohei Ohtani absolutely just go bananas on the Detroit Tigers.
We’re very close to the trade deadline and players are going to be moving around over the next 2-3 days as teams try to make last minute moves, but I would imagine 80% of the trades will be middle relief 4th/5th starters and very few positional players that have DFS impact on us. That said, it would be extremely wise of the Cardinals to get what they can for Nolan Arenado and if he does go to the Dodgers then they are the immediate World Series favorite.
Meanwhile the Chicago White Sox have officially announced they will no longer be participating in the 2023 MLB season. Which nobody cares about since they really have not participated in the 2023 MLB season so far.
WEATHER
Excessive Heat, whatever that really means across most of the U.S. today. With this comes the chance for pop-up storms so we’ll maybe wanna check that closer to 7pm lock time but as of now, all games should play.
My favorite pitching name match-up today includes Yonny Chirinos (he’s a Brave now) against Adrian Houser down in Atlanta. Why? Because Yo, Adrian! that’s why. Aside from that, we have Wheeler, Gausman, Cole, Musgrove, Scherzer, McClanahan, Gilbert, GrayRod, Brady Si…. okay, we have some good pitchers going today folks, but naturally they’re all in tricky scenarios.
TOP ARMS
MACKENZIE GORE
DraftKings – 7300, FD: $8900
The Mets have as much life as a U.S. Senator these days and have continued to be bad against left handed pitching. Pete Alonso had his fun in a little league park earlier this week and with the trades starting you can rest assured that the veterans on this lineup will have zero life in them today. I expect Gore to dominate with a 7 inning, 3 hit type performance today.
ZACK WHEELER
DraftKings: $9800 – FD: $10,600
This one shouldn’t be a tricky spot in Pittsburgh for Wheeler. A streaky guy who is pitching very well right now. There is chance that this game has late inning storms that roll through, so he could get cut short beceause of that, however among the top end pitchers he has the least amount of risk today.
DANE DUNNING
DraftKings: $6,000
Picking a third pitcher I felt would be a good recommendation tonight was challenging, because I feel good enough about the decision on the higher end $ and some Italian Mafia guy visited my house two weeks ago telling me that it would not be in the favor of my family to mention Brady Singer anymore. I said whats the big deal? He then reminded me that Taysom Hill is family, so we’re not gonna go there tonight…
Lets instead go to PETCO at night and pick on the Padres, with trade rumors swirling and Dunning coming off a horrible start vs the Dodgers. San Diego’s been hitting well but that’s been away from home, and at home they are a 3 run team. Cheap and viable, Dunning should post a 14-15 DK FPTS night for 6k.
OTHER PITCHING NOTES
It is after all a deep pitching slate …
- Kevin Gausman … You gotta go against Ohtani/Renfroe/Moniak here and pray they do not go yard. But certainly among the top end SP’s when hunting for a 12K performance Gausman has the most clear path to do that. Too much risk for me with other choices available on the menu.
- Logan Webb prefers ptiching in the day time, Boston has a 31% strikeout rate vs RHP over the last week and a lot of that was at home too. If they carry that into San Francisco, Webb is a steal tonight
- Grayson Rodriguez should be around $8,000. He’s not because when he first got called up he had some struggles, but those are expected with extremely talented pitchers. New York could be getting Judge back and very warm weather in Camden Yards has me concerned for him to do enough even at the cheap price.
- Sonny Gray … Not a fan tonight. Historically someone who throws 75-80 pitches and in 100+ degree temps? Something bad gonna happen.
RAYS
Franco, Raley, B.Lowe, R.Lowe
I like Tampa on the road in Houston. You lock in that 9th inning AB for sure, and this team is going to break out of their slump with a big weekend series.
TWINS
Correa, Polanco, Gallo, Kiriloff
Brady Singer has NEVER been good vs the Twins, they murder him and should thrive in 100 degree temps here in Kauffman stadium. Assuming Jorge Polanco returns tonight this is arguably the stack with the most upside.
ROCKIES
Tovar, Cron, McMahon, Jones
Colorado is a team I have circled as a spot which could be a big time DFS winner in the second half and no it’s not because of Coors Field only. They have young talent which should beat up on Oakland’s bullpen when they get to it, so don’t sleep on the lefties like McMahon and Jones if they are starting tonight.
REDS vs DODGERS
Look for some fireworks in warm Chavez tonight, the Dodgers certainly vs a young lefty are the logical pick, with Mookie & JD Martinez being two easy button smash hits and Chris Taylor vs a lefty is never a bad option. Do not forget though that they brought back Mr. Kike Hernandez, who is $2800 and can fill in at 2B for cheap today.
Elly Homers. He’s also 6100, so a tough fit, but I would not be shocked to see the Reds have a big first 5 innings off Miller.
Team who is playing Baseball today and has zero mention in my article for an unknown reason:
- The Atlanta Braves … Expensive? Cold? Milwaukee good pitching? I won’t laugh if you say fuck it and go 5 expensive Braves on a 14 game slate, thats when they go insane, but there’s other options which make more sense.
CATCHER
- Tom Murphy
- Will Smith
- Christian Bethancourt
FIRST BASE
Something about Vlad Jr against the Angels which just feels right. With the Ohtani show coming into town the Jays should be alert and actually juiced up for this game.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Alex Kiriloff
- Christian Walker
- Josh Bell
SECOND BASE
- Jorge Polanco
- Enrique Hernandez … Also known as Kike
- Jordan Diaz
- Brandon Lowe
THIRD BASE
If you have to punt a position, this would be it. If you don’t, then these guys are the ones to use. Not the best spot tonight, but one which going random is going to pay off over filling in with a stack option.
- DJ LeMahieu
- Nolan Arenado
- Alex Bregman … Could benefit the most from having both Altuve and Yordan back. Yordan is going yard twice tomorrow BTW.
- Eugenio Suarez
SHORTSTOP
- Wander Franco
- Amed Rosario … Huge benefit going into this lineup now for him.
- Bobby Witt Jr
- Carlos Correa
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Luke Raley
- JD Martinez
- Brent Rooker
- Max Kepler
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Shohei Ohtani
- Mickey Moniak
- Mookie Betts
- Randal Grichuk
OUTFIELD – Value
- Jose Siri
- Hunter Renfroe / Mickey Moniak
- Ramon Laureano
- Sam Frelick
- Wander Franco – SS – Tampa Bay Rays – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Shohei Ohtani – GOD – Angels
- Luke Raley – OF – Rays
- Randal Grichuk – OF – Rockies
- Max Kepler – OF – Twins
- Jorge Polanco – 2B – Twins
- Vladdy Jr – 1B – Jays
- Eugenio Suarez – 3B – Mariners
- BONUS …………….. Hunter Renfroe – OF – Angels
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Angels/Blue Jays
- Rays/Astros
- Twins/Royals
- Reds/Dodgers
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game.
- Rangers/Padres
ML Targets
- Orioles
- Guardians
- Nationals
- Rays