Wake up boys and girls we have an 8 game DraftKings Sunday slate today with a 9 game (including Coors Field) slate on FanDuel. The Sunday Brunch game today is between the Angels and Blue Jays north of the border, while the Sunday night game is Yankees/Orioles. Imagine that, ESPN has the Yankees on Sunday Night Baseball again, but rest assured we will be told that they are including more markets by having the Orioles host it. Man up ESPN and why don’t you go to Kansas City to see the hottest hitter in the world, Bobby Witt Jr.
WEATHER
Could see mid game brief showers between Phillies/Pirates…. Otherwise we should be all clear
TOP TWO OPTIONS
JESUS LUZARDO — $11,000 (Both Sites)
Pretty straight forward, Jesus on a Sunday at home vs the Tigers. He’s had a little extra time off since a 115 pitch outing against the Rockies, and had he not had the extra day we would fade, but 25 DK points is the floor today folks.
JUSTIN VERLANDER — DK: $9400
Not feeling the usual Sunday Citi Field overs narrative today. Yeah, Max is gone, the Mets are dead, the Nats are pesky, but JV should showcase that he should be the next to get sent out of town. Only fear is they pull him early to avoid any injury reducing his trade value…
SUNDAY SLEEPER
MICHAEL KOPECH — DK: $7400 | FD: $8400
No, there isn’t an easy data story to tell here with Kopech. He walks too many guys, the Guardians are very well disciplined at the plate and should hit him. But the rule of thumb with the Sunday Sleeper is to go opposite of what should happen. Both these teams should have competed for the AL Central crown and now they’re just trying to get to the end of the season as quickly as they can. Kopech will go -10 or replicate what he did two starts ago vs the Mets since he has been able to have K success vs lefties — which he will see a ton of today
Alternative Sleeper: Aaron Civale
OTHER PITCHING NOTES
Highly Rated SP Fades: Kenta Maeda, Cristopher Sanchez, Tarik Skubal
I am out on Tarik Skubal, he jumped up to $8700 on DK and $9300 on FD based off a 5 inning, 2 hit, 9 strikeout start vs the Giants last week, but should still be held to around 80-90 pitches today and has to deal with Jorge Soler and of course Luis Arraez who doesnt strikeout and probably will make him start the game with an 8 to 9 pitch AB.
I considered Kyle Hendricks and Steven Matz. Then I decided to just go take my Sunday morning dump instead, which is way more satisfying of a feeling.
Stacking will lose your money today…
RAYS
Raley, B.Lowe
Go opposite after the blowout theory. Tampa lefties against Bielak should jump out to an early lead for them in the first 5 innings.
PIRATES
Henry Davis, Bryan Reynolds
I am going to try and jump on the wheels falling off a little bit for Cristopher, don’t call me Christopher, Sanchez today. He has been putting up great outings for the Phils but remains a 2 pitch pitcher for the most part and righties continue to be able to hit him hard since he’s somewhat predictable. It’s a weird slate and probably one to pay up for pitching to be safe, so value guys like Henry Davis ($3000), Connor Joe ($3100) along with Bryan Reynolds and maybe old man McCutchen are a good build starter today. The randomness of the Pirates today though is the 5-9 spot, they’re all young, they’re all cheap, they’re all just get on base guys…. Well, except Austin Hedges.
CATCHER
- Salvador Perez
- Francisco Alvarez
- Austin Hedges
FIRST BASE
Mr. Pete Alonso, what’s it gonna be? We gonna homer at home on a Sunday or nah? Lots of good pivots here, if you opt away from my Kopech pick then the Cleveland duo of Ace and Gary, err, Josh and Josh are okay pivots so too is Luke Raley
- Pete Alonso
- Luke Raley
- Josh Naylor
SECOND BASE
Polanco is a perfect plug and play option here, likely won’t hit you a homer, but should get on base, score a run and maybe drive in one as well. Brandon Lowe has the HR power.
- Brandon Lowe
- Jorge Polanco
- Nick Gonzales
THIRD BASE
Riley has been one of the hotter hitters post the All-Star break and has an xSLG over .800 in his last 50 PA. On the spinning wheel of which Brave to spend for today, it’s between him and Olson and I lean Riley given the depth at 1B
- Austin Riley
- Kyle Farmer
- Jose Ramirez
SHORTSTOP
A bad position but one with the hottest player on the planet in Bobby Witt Jr. We’ll know how it goes first AB. Kenta is good when his command is on and if he walks Witt his day is done, or Witt will strikeout and Kenta is the play. This is the ENTIRE slate in my mind and if you think I am recommending an Asian pitcher over choosing Bobby Witt Jr then I suggest we just stop analyzing MLB DFS and discuss the Arizona Cardinals Depth Chart…
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Trea Turner … It’s funny that he is 5600 and Witt is 5100, its been an issue all season with DK pricing but alas, the little man finally homers today.
- Dansby Swanson
- Carlos Correa
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
No man should like Pirates as much as I do today. Has to be done by Henry and Bryan if they do damage.
- Henry Davis
- Bryan Reynolds
- Byron Buxton
- Kyle Tucker
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
Jorge Soler has gone away in the second half, shocker, right? He still should smash lefites and has a history of destroying Tigers pitching in general.
- Jorge Soler
- Christian Yelich
- Randy Arozarena
OUTFIELD – Value
- Connor Joe
- Seiya Suzuki
- Michael Harris II
- Michael A Taylor
- Jordan Walker
COORS GAME (FANDUEL)
Good luck here, the Rockies will be going an opener which is something I have been screaming they should do a ton in their home games. Pitchers in Coors are usually maxed at 5 innings, so by starting with an opener you can dictate that 1-3 or 1-4 part of the order match-up, then go to your expected pitcher 2nd through 6th innings, then build around a solid backend of the bullpen who throws gas since the ball doesn’t break well in Coors. This is the model Rockies, I am available for hire…. Thanks…
Anyways, I like the Rockies. Tovar, Grichuk, Cron.
- Henry Davis – OF – Pirates – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Austin Riley – 3B – Braves
- Pete Alonso – 1B – Mets
- Brandon Lowe – 2B – Rays
- Salvador Perez – C – Royals
- Michael A Taylor – OF – Twins
- Bryan Reynolds – OF – Pirates
- Trea Turner – SS – Phillies
- BONUS …………….. Michael Harris II – Braves
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Rays/Astros
- Twins/Royals
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game.
- Brewers/Braves
ML Targets
- Pirates
- Rays
- White Sox
- Cubs
- Fuck it… Royals