Tomorrow is of course not only the 4th of July, but a Tuesday where you have a ton of afternoon games. I really want to try and cover all of it but we’ll see what we get from a slate perspective between FanDuel and DraftKings. Place your bets now on the number of slates which FanDuel will try to roll with, I think 7 seems optimal to them.
My vote for the ideal slate tomorrow? Start us at 1:10 with the Cardinals/Marlins, including the 3 1pm/2pm games and then the five games in the 4PM window, make that an 8 game main slate and then do a five game night slate starting at 6:40. You can still have the Nationals 11am showdown slate and all is well. My guess is that DK does three slates, 1pm, 4pm and 7pm. And FD will have 11am, 1pm, 4pm, 6pm, 7pm with a bunch of cheezy ass contests names like Joey’s Chestnuts and Schlongs.
For today meanwhile we have a six game MAIN slate even though there are two games in the afternoon and two games in the turbo/6pm window.
WEATHER
Everything should play fine tonight with a chance of storms/late rain in New York and Minnesota
TOP PITCHER
Logan Webb (DK: $9200)
We should of course assume that Webb was already back in San Francisco and could watch the SNB game last night from the comfort of his couch while sipping on a case of Busch Beer – he’s definitely a Busch guy.
I think there is most definitely some logic to a game-stack on pitching here, but my preferred side is picking on Seattle who has a 34% strikeout rate vs RHP over the last week and really that’s been them most of the season as well.
SP2 OPTION(s)
Mitch Keller (DK: $8800)
Kershaw will not go for the Dodgers tonight, instead Michael Grove will start. Just gonna erase what I had written between both of these guys here but Keller remains my SP2 choice.
OTHER PITCHING CONSIDERATIONS
Domingo German has the worlds most unheralded perfect game I could have ever imagined. Please, do not take the cheese and use him.
These 3 1/2 teams are all pretty equal tonight.
ORIOLES
Mullins, Rutschman, Hays
A very cold lineup against a SP coming off a perfect game? Yep. The Orioles should be able to get a couple HR off German, who still should give up too many HR each start.
TWINS / ROYALS
MIN: Solano, Buxton, Farmer
KC: Perez, Pratto
This is not a high scoring slate tonight and you’ll see some clear chalk with the Twins out there vs Austin Cox in his second ML start. Minnesota hasn’t exactly been tearing the cover off the ball vs LHP like they should be, but it is 91 degrees in Target Field today with the wind blowing out.
BRAVES
Rosario, Harris II, Olson
Lefties in Cleveland vs one of the Guardians top SP prospects who is coming off his first gem in the big leagues vs the lowly Royals. Welcome back to Cleveland Eddie Rosario!
CATCHER
Happy Catcher Monday night …
- Salvador Perez
- Adley Rutschman … Announced he is going to participate in the HR derby this year, not someone I would have pegged for it. But guess what … he’s my pick to win it right now. What does that have to do with tonight. Absolutely nothing my friends.
FIRST BASE
- Donovan Solano
- Anthony Rizzo
- Nick Pratto
SECOND BASE
I would be shocked if anyone here went yard tonight, but Kyle Farmer is probably going to be 50% owned if he is in the starting lineup. Remember, the Twins looooove to pull guys like the Giants do, so he is major risk of being pulled if/when KC switches to a RHP out of the pen, which is why I have him ranked 3rd.
- Eduardo Escobar
- Rougned Odor
- Kyle Farmer
THIRD BASE
…. we literally have the ability to use EE and Farmer here too. And this position blows nuts. Just take a shot on JD, Ramirez or Riley. For me, Jose Ramirez at home is never a bad option.
- Jose Ramirez
- Josh Donaldson
- Austin Riley
SHORTSTOP
- Carlos Correa
- Bobby Witt Jr
- Gunnar Henderson
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Eddie Rosario
- Byron Buxton
- Cedric Mullins
- Mike Trout
OUTFIELD – Value
- Austin Hays
- Michael Harris II
- Michael A. Taylor
- Eddie Rosario – OF – Atlanta Braves – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Salvador Perez – C – Royals
- Byron Buxton – OF – Twins
- Cedric Mullins – OF – Orioles
- Anthony Rizzo – 1B – Yankees
- Jose Ramirez – 3B – Guardians
- Eduardo Escobar – 2B – Angels
- Carlos Correa – SS – Twins
- BONUS …. Mike Trout – OF – Angels
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Royals/Twins
- Angels/Padres
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game.
- Pirates/Dodgers
- Mariners/Giants
ML Targets
- Orioles
- Mariners
- Angels