Well, I for one am not shocked that the Brittish DFS company not only had a site outage for the second straight 4th of July, but once again on America’s Holiday they have said fuck you to our pastime, so good luck playing over there today.
We’re gonna focus on the MAIN 1pm slate on DraftKings, which is done properly by including 8 total games.
I do not consider this to be a normal slate. This is your high variance, high trust the gut type scenario. Those wild games yesterday afternoon between the Cubs/Brewers and Astros/Rangers were just a sign of what we could expect today.
WEATHER
There are five games in Dome’s on this afternoon slate, and the three which are not all have some potential for storms/rain.
- BAL/NYY … Should be able to play through it.
- TEX/BOS … Early delay likely
- KC/MIN … Big burst of rain/storms late in the game
On America’s fine Holiday we have Kenta Maeda, Kodai Senga and later tonight Shohei Ohtani all pitching. This is the most sure sign that we are going to go to war with Asia very soon my friends. We also have two Zach’s and a Zack going today. Yes, that would be Eflin, Davies and Greinke
But the most important name related correlation today comes from having three Kyle’s going today, including Gibson, Hendricks and how do you not lock button the cheapest pitcher on the slate — KYLE FREELAND, today? I mean… C’mon folks, they’re just GIVING you the free narrative there.
There is no clear top pitcher today. My initial gut reaction to seeing Nola vs Eflin was that we would get a high scoring game there. Philly vs Eflin gives us Realmuto for sure and I do not like Nola vs that Tampa lineup at all, but with both guys they’ll pitch into the 5th inning so you’re gonna amass point production, just not a 20 point game.
Kenta Maeda? More like Kenta My Fade-a.
MY TOP PITCHER
Kodai Seinga (DK: $10,100)
Arizona is a good lineup, but this is a chance to sneak one by since you wanna have prior exposure to Senga to deal with the truckload of stuff he throws and his Ghost pitch. He’s my top arm since we for sure have a roof closed in Arizona today and his form has been very good of late.
SP2 OPTION(s)
Do not spend for two pitchers today, you will regret it.
Kyle Hendricks (DK: $7700) … Both Hendricks and Miley are worthy of giving consideration on simply to pick on the opposing lineups. But in the case of these two when I look for that one bat to destroy them it’s Miley who has to navigate around Seiya Suzuki today (whats with the damn Asians????)…
AMERICAN SLEEPERS
Common logic says that if you won’t find a 20 point outing then why bother paying for pitching today, and ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the two American sleepers on this fine 4th of July
Adam Wainwright (DK: $6000) … You know you wanna do it. Waino down in Miami against the Marlins without Jazz. He’s done, dead, finished, right? Well, 5 innings and a 12 point outing will actually fit in just fine.
Kyle Freeland (DK: $5200) … YOLO button.
OTHER PITCHING NOTES
Jesus Luzardo … The Cardinals in south beach with the 4th of July are probably going to get no-hit tomorrow, but I love Goldy & Arenado against Luzardo today. Yes, he will be your 40% owned pitcher because of limited choices and yes he should have 6+ strikeouts making him a reasonable consideration for that floor potential.
Kyle Gibson and Clarke Schmidt … Both gotta deal with weather concerns. Both should be ‘okay’ otherwise.
RANGERS vs RED SOX
The thought of Texas in Fenway for a whole series has to make you want to stack them alone, and getting a bullpen game from Boston after a likely early delay should produce the results we expect. But while they’re great, I do want to take a shot on Boston here too, who is hitting well again and Dane Dunning should not repeat his last 10K/36% CSW performance from last start vs Detroit.
- Rangers … Semien, Garcia, Seager
- Red Sox … Duran, Verdugo, Devers
ROCKIES
The transition from RP to SP for Brandon Bielak due to injuries in the Astros rotation has not gone very well this year. The Astros bullpen is also extremely mediocre and a little worn down after the Rangers series.
Coming in a really low ownership in this game, the Colorado Rockies, outside of Coors but in a park which isn’t exactly Oakland Coliseum when it comes to limiting run production. Bielak has been horrible vs LHB and throws a really bad change-up which CJ Cron should smash.
- CJ Cron, Ryan McMahon, Nolan Jones
PHILLIES vs RAYS
Super contrarian and on a holiday slate I am never afraid to just go contrarian where I feel the most confident.
- Phillies … Schwarber, Harper, Realmuto, Bohm
- Rays … B.Lowe, J.Lowe, Raley
CATCHER
- J.T. Realmuto
- Yan Gomes
- Francisco Alvarez
FIRST BASE
Strong position today, but I ride America’s First Baseman at the top.
- Paul Goldschmidt
- CJ Cron
- Alex Kiriloff
SECOND BASE
- Marcus Semien
- Brandon Lowe
- Adam Frazier
THIRD BASE
- Rafael Devers
- Ryan McMahon
- Nolan Arenado
SHORTSTOP
- Francisco Lindor
- Corey Seager
- Jeremy Pena
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Nolan Jones
- Seiya Suzuki
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Adolis Garcia
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Bryce Harper
- Josh Lowe
- Alex Verdugo
- Brandon Nimmo
OUTFIELD – Value
- Jarren Duran
- Starling Marte
- Aaron Hicks
- Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – Cardinals – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Marcus Semien – 2B – Rangers
- Rafael Devers – 3B – Red Sox
- Jeremy Pena – SS – Astros
- JT Realmuto – C – Phillies
- Giancarlo Stanton – OF – Yankees
- Seiya Suzuki – OF – Cubs
- Nolan Jones – OF – Rockies
- BONUS …………… CJ Cron – 1B – Rockies
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- All… of…. them.
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game.
- Mets/Diamondbacks
ML Targets
- Yankees
- Cardinals
- Red Sox
- Twins
- Mets
- Cubs
- Phillies