11 game Main slate today.
WEATHER
TOR @ CWS – Threat of severe weather, hail, and lots of lots of rain chances throughout the day. We’ll see the status closer to lock to determine what they want to do here. Berrios vs Lynn is advantage Lynn believe it or not, but I wouldn’t go either SP for sure.
Elsewhere its muggy, hot, muggy, hot…. Just miserable…
TOP PITCHER
JUSTIN STEELE (DK: $10,300 / FD: $9700)
Well now, what do we have here? Not only a lefty vs the Brewers, but one who has been great most of the season and also is properly priced on DraftKings. Steele isn’t walking batters, the Brewers strikeout among the worst in the league vs LHP and rank 18th, 26th, 27th and 25th against his four primary pitches.
The only reason for Steele to be bad today is if he is going to start tipping pitches, and even then I would bet all my Taysom Hill memorabilia that a Craig Counsell led team could not figure out how to read a pitcher tipping pitches. Lock in on Steele on both DK and FD.
SP2 OPTION(s)
The 8k-9k range on DraftKings is very interesting today. Lots of potential with Gray, Cobb, Bello, Lynn, Miller, Jos. Gray, all have delivered before but all but Cobb are facing some tough competition today — yeah, that includes Bobby Miller because young hits young and apparantly they Pittsburgh Pirates are going to move to Los Angeles as they seem to NEVER lose in Chavez.
Rolling another high $ option with Steele would be Lopez or Senga and while Senga was my guy yesterday – that was when there weren’t any other SP’s I wanted to consider up there. Lopez is not worth the 10k even though he should get 20 on DK…
So we’ll go bargain hunting.
SETH LUGO (DK: $7900)
If for some reason the Angels sit Ohtani after everyone is dropping like flies then this shoots up to be a pretty popular pick today. You see Lugo and you think of the Yugo Car, but he’s better then that, he’s more like a Honda Civic. He’s not gonna take you far in life with the ladies, but it will get you from point A to point B without a headache and without costing you much.
MIKE SOROKA (DK: $6700)
Fear not on the fact that Soroka isn’t a heavy strikeout guy facing a team who doesn’t strike-out very much, this is a great price to have confidence in him gaining his own confidence back at the major league level. SP2 only on DraftKings.
OTHER PITCHING CONSIDERATIONS
- Tommy Milone is only $4000 and starting against an ugly Giants lineup right now in a night game at San Francisco. There have been worse $4k options in this world.
- Bobby Miller won’t beat Steele on FD and probably only gets you a 15 on DK
- Model really likes Alex Cobb, but he really should have pitched yesterday, I mean, cmon. Nobody is eating day old Corn on the Cobb, right???
NATIONALS
Candelario, Garcia, Ruiz, Dickerson
They wont strikeout and the sweat build up between Graham’s you know what tonight will make his last name very fitting. This cheap build is a perfect pairing with either of the two teams below.
THE METS
Nimmo, Pham, Lindor, Alonso, Alvarez
You gotta put the ball in play in the #2 stadium for Triples and #3 stadium for doubles and hope that Corbin Carroll and the Diamondbacks outfifeld won’t chase everything down. Such should be the case with Tommy Henry going for Arizona and Nimmo looking better, Pham smashing lefties all year & there goes that Pete Alonso HR which makes it a 4 run first inning for the worst first inning team this season — the Mets.
RANGERS
Seager, Garver, E.Duran
Ooooh boy, here we go. Boston has themselves a great star in Brayan Bello but the Corey Seager multi-HR game should come before the all-star break. He’s been hitting over .350 with 9 doubles since mid June when he last homered and you might get him at 5% ownership given his $6200 price and the rest of the Rangers being expensive as well.
The bottom of the Texas lineup is a DFS key today, when Mitch Garver gets going, he strings together some big games and if Ezequiel Duran snaps out of his slump he’ll be a slate winner.
Verdugo, Duran, Devers for Boston
SECONDARY TEAMS
- Reds … If it goes south for Josiah, it will go south REALLY bad. I expect them to be very chalky tonight, but they do strikeout a good amount. If they can be patient and get to 3 BB counts then they’ll go nuke and your guy to clear the bases here is Spencer Steer in a Fraley/Votto/Steer stack…
- Braves … Dear Eddie Rosario, we wanna do something?
- Orioles/Yankees … I’ll take the over here, might make this into a SGP over a DFS build, but I expect 4+ HR and the Orioles to have a little spark tonight.
CATCHER
- Keibert Ruiz
- Mitch Garver
- Francisco Alvarez
FIRST BASE
- Pete Alonso
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr … No reason he should remain at $4800. If the rain looks bad then this is a longshot on someone who has all the signs of getting hot.
- Anthony Rizzo … High chance he leads off the game with a HR, if you wanna throw a little $ on that tonight.
- Matt Olson
SECOND BASE
This spot is so ugly I almost considered Tim Anderson, but it’s not that desperate yet. Let’s roll with LV Garcia to get a little 3 hit, 2 runs scored, 1st inning SOLO HR game.
- Luis V Garcia
- Jeff McNeil
- Michael Massey
THIRD BASE
- Jeimer Candelario
- Austin Riley
- Gunnar Henderson
SHORTSTOP
- Corey Seager
- Francisco Lindor
- Dansby Swanson
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
Hard to love specific guys with conviction tonight, it’s a very one off, this guy’s gonna do well, but his team might not spot, a nice spot to save outside of a Nationals stack as your CORE, which is all the relief you need.
- Sir Thomas Pham
- Alex Verdugo … Long overdue for a HR, and is +850 to do such on DK
- Spencer Steer
- Jake Bauers
OUTFIELD – Mid Range
- Eddie Rosario
- Seiya Suzuki
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Brandon Nimmo
- Anthony Santander
OUTFIELD – Value
- Corey Dickerson
- Jarren Duran
- Zeke Duran
- Starling Marte
- Luis V Garcia – 2B – Nationals – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Pete Alonso – 1B – Mets
- Alex Verdugo – OF – Red Sox
- Eddie Rosario – OF – Braves
- Austin Riley – 3B – Braves
- Keibert Ruiz – C – Nationals
- Corey Seager – SS – Rangers
- Seiya Suzuki – OF – Cubs
- BONUS ………………….. Giancarlo Stanton – OF – Yankees
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
Honestly, just about every game has over vibes…
- Reds/Nationals
- Mets/Diamondbacks
- Orioles/Yankees
- Rangers/Red Sox
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game.
- Royals/Twins
- Angels/Padres
ML Targets
- Cubs
- Nationals
- Rangers
- Mariners